Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 131554
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
954 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Tweaked this mornings forecast to add isolated freezing rain and
sleet back into the grids for the AM across the Southern half of
the TX Panhandle. The KAMA 12z sounding showed a 700-750mb warm
nose out to about 3 degrees C while surface temperatures are
hovering around 32 degrees in the southwestern Texas Panhandle
including Amarillo. Reports of ice pellets and some very light ice
accretion on elevated surfaces (~0.01") confirms light freezing
rain and sleet are possible through at least late morning hours.
Still expecting temperatures to rise in the afternoon into the mid
to high 30s so all rain is expected at this time before a
transition to all snow occurs around or after sunset. Only other
change was to add isolated thunder to the southeastern zones this
afternoon as model forecast sounding analysis indicates some
elevated instability of 100-200 J/kg above the warm nose. Only
limitation is that lift may be on the decrease this afternoon as
an area of subsidence moves in ahead of the main wave later this
evening and tonight.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 527 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

AVIATION...
Rain and snow is expected to spread from south to north through
the morning hours. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail with
this activity. At this point, it looks like AMA should have the
best chance of precipitation through this forecast. With DHT and
GUY seeing smaller chances. The rain and snow is expected to
change over to all snow tonight and it should linger until the end
of this forecast. Winds will be light until tonight when they will
pick up from the north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 439 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Lots of dry air in place across the Panhandles which should slowly
erode this morning as continued low level moisture advects into
the forecast area. A closed upper low over northwest Mexico will
track to near far West Texas by this evening and then across west
and northwest Texas Tuesday. Out ahead of the closed upper low,
forecast soundings indicate temps may stay close or slightly
above freezing through Tuesday across the southern Texas
Panhandle. Forecast thickness values suggest a rain and snow mix
or all rain through Tuesday mainly across the southern Texas
Panhandle. Backed off on total snowfall accumulations across all
of the forecast area with the highest amounts over the south
central and southwest Texas Panhandle where 1 to 3 inches will be
possible although confidence very low on this occurrence. It is
highly likely that most of the forecast area will receive less
than 1 inch for the event. Went with Winter Weather Advisory for
the possibility of snow and accumulations of up to 1 to 3 inches.

As the upper low pulls east away from the Panhandles Tuesday, the
precip should likely end from west to east by Tuesday afternoon.
Subsidence and drier air behind the departing upper low Tuesday
afternoon will allow for decreasing cloudiness with mostly clear
skies by Tuesday night and Wednesday. A moderating trend likely
Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, however a cold front will
push through the forecast area Friday night. A surface trough on
Sunday should push across the forecast area and may allow for the
possibility of convection mainly across the eastern half of the
Panhandles. The surface trough should exit the Panhandles into
Oklahoma by Sunday night. Another cold front expected early next
week.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...
     Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

7/3



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