Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 232140
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
440 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...
See mesoscale discussion below.

Simpson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Not much has changed forecast-wise. Tomorrow is still looking
very windy on the backside of the low. Winds tomorrow could gust
up to 70 mph. These north winds will limit our heating potential
tomorrow to slightly below climatological norms. Precip will be
likely in the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle with the wrap
around moisture. Mid- level height rises on Saturday will bring
surface temps back up into the 70s. The next upper level shortwave
passes through the central Plains on Sunday and may bring some
glancing precip to very northern sections of the OK Panhandle.

Weather remains calm for the beginning of the work week as ridging
builds into the area. By mid week there is another chance for
thunderstorms. Models are still very diverse on solutions for both
timing and location of the next big system. Long range solutions
seem to be trending more towards the GFS solution with deepening
and slowing the system from Tuesday to Wednesday/Thursday time
frame. This will continue to need watching for more trends to nail
any details down, but it does seem to bring a good chance for
precip to the area.

Beat

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After this afternoon`s critical fire weather conditions settle
down, elevated fire weather is possible on Sunday for portions
of the southern TX Panhandle. The remainder of next week looks to
stay calm for fire weather concerns.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                44  60  38  73  44 /  80   5   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  47  61  34  68  42 /  70  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              38  54  34  70  39 /  30  40   5   0   0
Borger TX                  44  61  40  75  46 /  80  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              42  62  35  75  42 /  40   5   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  43  61  38  74  43 /  80   5   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               47  64  40  76  45 /  50   5   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 39  58  33  73  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  43  58  36  72  41 /  80  20   5   0   0
Hereford TX                42  61  35  73  43 /  60   5   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                50  62  38  70  43 /  60  10   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   46  60  35  72  45 /  60  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                48  67  41  74  45 /  60   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              47  70  42  76  45 /  60   0   0   0   0

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...Severe weather possible this evening...

* Synoptic Overview: The synoptic aspects of this event are very
  impressive as height falls from a closed upper low analyzed on
  water vapor to our west overspread the region this evening.
  These height falls should about ensure convective initiation
  around 5-7PM in a weak to modestly unstable thermodynamic
  environment.

* Mesoscale: A sfc trough located at 230PM from roughly Guymon to
  Dumas to Portales, NM will sharpen and briefly take on more
  dryline characteristics later this afternoon before getting
  overtaken by a Pacific cold front by 10PM tonight. MLCAPE values
  of 1000-1500 J/kg will remain mostly capped and mixed layer
  parcels will require the assistance of low level convergence and
  the dynamic upper system to get going. Effective shear values of
  around 50 knots will be enough to promote supercellular
  structures and impressive flow aloft will result in very fast
  moving storms with storm motions of nearly 60 mph possible.
  250mb winds of over 110kts this evening will result in anvil-
  level SR winds of around 60 kts which would tend to promote LP
  storms if supercells are indeed realized.

* Threats: The main threats look to be large hail and damaging wind,
  especially with any supercells we may get. Hail up to the size of
  golf balls and maybe even larger will be possible in part due to
  low WBZ heights, decent CAPE in the hail growth zone, potential
  supercell storms, and a fairly dry atmosphere. Wind gusts to 60-70
  mph will be possible in the more severe storms, but given that
  many folks will see similar winds for several hours tomorrow, it
  seems dumb to talk about that. The tornado threat will be limited
  by lacking low-level CAPE, relatively high LCL heights, lack of
  any favorable synoptic or mesoscale boundaries, and a general
  difficulty of the storms to ingest low level horizontal vorticity
  in a streamwise manner. However, a brief window for an isolated
  tornado cannot be ruled out, especially given the RAP`s forecast
  of over 300 m2/s2 0-1 helicity around 8PM.

* Timing and Location: The aforementioned 5-7PM initiation should
  be followed by about a 4-5 hour window of greatest severe threat
  that will end by 11 PM as the Pacific front sweeps through. The
  greatest threat will be in a narrow zone and exist in an area
  roughly bounded to the west by a Hereford to Guymon line and
  bounded to the east by a roughly Clarendon to Canadian line.

Simpson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham.

OK...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

9/16



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