Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 241759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For 18z TAFs...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to
develop and move northeast generally along and east of a line from
Happy, TX to Booker, TX. This leaves all TAF sites free of
precipitation with VFR cigs/vsbys expected through most of the
period. There is a chance of lower ceilings and perhaps showers and
a few storms along a cold front early Sunday morning. Went ahead and
lowered cigs close to MVFR as the front pushes through noting
that updates may be needed as better guidance comes in. Kept
prob30 for KAMA but left out at other sites as there is too much
uncertainty with how far west and north moisture will get prior to
dry air moving in behind front. Along and behind frontal boundary
expected very gusty winds up to 35kts especially mid morning
through the early afternoon hours Sunday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

An upper level low was located over southern Wyoming early this
morning. The panhandles were under the right entrance region of the
upper jet streak that was rotating northward into the Wyoming upper
low. The dynamics from the jet streak along with low level moisture
return have combined to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the western half of the panhandles. The lift from the jet
streak will continue to move east, so would expected to see the
showers and thunderstorms move east with time through today. The
models seem to have a pretty good handle on this scenario. A surface
trough will lag behind this area of showers and thunderstorms and it
should stretch north to south across the central panhandles from
about a Guymon to Amarillo line by late this afternoon. This trough
may also provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms
which will again move east across the eastern panhandles.

A cold front will move south across the panhandles late tonight into
Sunday morning as the upper level low moves out onto the northern
plains. This front may also provide a stage for additional shower
and thunderstorm development. Highs will likely stay in the 60s and
70s behind this front on Sunday.

Drier air will move south behind the cold front, especially Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Therefore, we have lowered pops Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night and have confined them to the far
southern Texas Panhandle. We have removed pops for Monday as it
looks like the better low level moisture will stay to our south.
However, a cloudy day may still be in store for Monday, especially
for the southern Texas Panhandle. Therefore, high temperatures may
still not make it out of the 60s.

A cutoff low develops out of the base of the departing upper level
trough on Sunday over northern Mexico. This cutoff low eventually
lifts out to the north into southern California and then it becomes
an open wave as it moves northeastward across the Great Basin and
central Rockies. As this upper level short wave trough moves through
the Great Basin and central Rockies it may provide enough lift over
the panhandles to bring some more showers and thunderstorms mainly
across the north Thursday and Friday.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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