Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 080510 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z TUE MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST TO
EAST DURG THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR
CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AT KGUY AND KDHT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED TO RETAIN INHERITED SCT020 FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS
TIME WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT...IF ANY
STORMS FORM AT ALL. THEREFORE...HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS FOR
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL LOCATION
BEING AFFECTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD TSTMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND
SERN CO SHOULD REMAIN W AND NW OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CLOUDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
AND HAVE RETAINED INHERITED SCT020 FROM PREVIOUS FCST. TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTERNOON REMAINS PROBLEMATICAL AT THIS TIME WITH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO ISOLD TO SCT...IF ANY STORMS FORM AT ALL. HAVE
OMITTED ANY MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE TERMINAL LOCATION BEING AFFECTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PACKAGE AS GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CENTER ON A COLD FRONT SET TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST IN RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HRS. THOUGH UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE COULD DEVELOP...
WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL A WEAK LLJ
DEVELOPS AROUND SUNSET AND ADDS TO LOW LVL CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY HANG
UP TOMORROW WILL HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DOES FIRE TOMORROW NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST HAS THE MOST
LIKELY ZONE FROM ROUGHLY DALHART TO CANADIAN, AND THIS STILL SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO SQUEAK THE FRONT THROUGH
AMARILLO BY LATE MORNING TUE, BUT THINK THIS MAY BE JUST A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE GIVEN LACKING UPR LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH VERY VERY LITTLE
SHEAR, DO NOT THINK THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE THAN YOUR
GARDEN VARIETY PULSE TYPE WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD PULL OUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN, BUT PROBABLY BY AND LARGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST. HIGHS WILL BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE, WHERE IT WILL STAY HOT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
RETREATING FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MORE IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME INDICATION OF A BIT
BETTER FORCING FROM A FEEBLE SHORTWAVE ON WED MEAN GOING 20 POPS HAVE
THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND. MLCAPE VALUES AGAIN COULD APPROACH 1500
J/KG AND WEAK SHEAR MEANS PULSE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE NAME OF THE
GAME. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
A PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN NM CONVECTION TRYING TO LEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL DEVELOP AND HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A FEW COOLER DAYS BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT, THE HEAT WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ECWMF ADVERTISING AN ANAMOLOUSLY STRONG COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE WEATHER AND FUEL CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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