Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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265
FXUS64 KAMA 212110
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
310 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough currently crossing the southern rockies will
lead to the development of a surface low over the Texas Panhandle
now through this evening evening. An area of rain showers is
current moving over the central Texas Panhandle associated with
PVA along the leading edge of the upper level wave. This rain will
continue pushing northeast as the surface low strengthens behind
it and a more pronounced deformation zone develops along the north
and east side of the low. 850-700 mb frontogenesis should maximize
along the deformation zone this evening through the very early
morning hours Sunday and help wrap precip around the low with a
focus along the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma
Panhandle. All indications point to the primary precip type being
rain as dew points (and hence web bulb temp) will struggle to fall
to the freezing mark at the surface for most of the area with the
main exception being the northwestern zones where wet bulb temps
should drop to freezing prior to precip ending and thus snow
should mix in mainly between 9 PM and 3 AM tonight. At this time
only expecting a few tenths of an inch of snow around Boise City,
Dalhart and perhaps as far east as Guymon. Total QPF amounts
should will range from a trace to a few tenths of an inch with
heavier amounts in the northern zones where precipitation should
persist longer.

The other concern with the passage of the upper wave and
strengthening surface low is increasing gradient winds especially
with the associated frontal passage overnight. High res models show
windy conditions developing behind the departing surface low as
north/northwest winds increase isallobaricly mainly along the
western half of the CWA tonight. 20 to 30 mph winds will be possible
for a few hours with gust up to 40 mph. Not currently going with a
wind advisory as current expectation is for winds to stay just below
criteria...but the evening shift should continue to monitor latest
data for a possible issuance later if winds look to be a bit
stronger than what is currently forecasted.

Precipitation will end from west to east with most of the Panhandles
drying out by sunrise with the possible exception of a few lingering
showers in the far east. An upper level ridge will start to build in
as temperatures clime into the 50s on Sunday and 60s/70s on Monday
with mostly clear skies. The next upper low moves in off the Pacific
late Monday into Tuesday. An associated very strong mid level jet is
progged to cross the Texas Panhandle Tuesday. Boundary layer mixing
should also be good Tuesday pending high level clouds which will
lead to possible advisory criteria or perhaps even warning criteria
winds late Tuesday morning into the late afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday models in decent agreement with upper wave lifting
northeast becoming a positive tilt trough over the Ohio/MS valleys.
This will keep the Panhandles in a northwest or even zonal flow
aloft keeping temperatures near average with mostly dry
conditions.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                32  56  32  68  38 /  40   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  32  55  29  65  38 /  60   0   0   0   5
Boise City OK              27  52  28  64  34 /  60   0   0   0   5
Borger TX                  36  57  33  68  40 /  50   0   0   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              30  57  32  68  37 /  30   0   0   0   5
Canyon TX                  31  57  32  68  37 /  30   0   0   5   0
Clarendon TX               35  58  33  71  40 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 30  55  30  67  35 /  40   0   0   0   5
Guymon OK                  32  54  29  65  38 /  60   0   0   0   5
Hereford TX                32  56  33  69  35 /  20   0   0   5   0
Lipscomb TX                37  57  30  66  39 /  60   0   0   5   5
Pampa TX                   33  55  33  70  39 /  50   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                37  58  34  71  40 /  40   5   0   0   0
Wellington TX              38  61  35  71  40 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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