Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 312332
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MOST LIKELY AFTER 04Z TO
06Z SATURDAY UNTIL BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CELINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  PRIMARY CONCERN
REMAINS THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES.  FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

DEEP...RICH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY MOST SECTIONS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODEST UPPER SUPPORT TRAVERSES MOIST AND UNSTABLE
LOWER LEVELS.  LOW POPS RETAINED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY
THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

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