Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS64 KAMA 260453 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BECOME GUSTY DURG THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SFC TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
SUNSET SUNDAY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME GUSTY DURG THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
FROST OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TUESDAY MORNING BEING
THE MAIN ITEMS OF NOTE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE
RIDGE HAS SUPPRESSED ALL CLOUD COVER...WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS ADDING TO THE WARMTH. QUIET...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN PRESENCE OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SHUNTING THE UPPER
RIDGE EASTWARD. H85 TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES C FROM TODAY...AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...ADDING A LITTLE
MORE DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW. ALL IN ALL...WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY
FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS /MID 80S TO LOWER 90S/
EXPECTED.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY...IT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK PRETTY BLEAK WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THERE WON/T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AT ALL. HUNG
ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTENING AS THIS AREA GETS GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER FORCING...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEAR QUITE LOW AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE COOL...DRY POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE WILDCARD AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE CLOUD
COVER...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
AREA.

DRY...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
BENEATH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ON THE HEELS OF NEAR RECORD HEAT
THIS WEEKEND...IT WILL FINALLY START TO FEEL MORE LIKE LATE OCTOBER
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE 60S IN MOST SPOTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THIS MORE
SEASONABLE AIR /HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S/ LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE INTO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND AROUND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BRING
THE WARMTH OF THE CURRENT ONE GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT
THE 20-FOOT LEVEL WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...FUELS ACROSS THE
AREA CURRENTLY REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH. THESE BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE 20
PERCENT.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.