Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 182024
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO. AS THE HOURS PROGRESS
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES ENTER THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUES TO
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
ROCKIES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL GO NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES UNDER POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE
LARGE SCALE MECHANISMS WILL COMBINE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (AROUND
1500 J/KG) AND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IF ALL OF THESE FACTORS COME
INTO ALIGNMENT AT THE SAME TIME WE COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS, BUT IF ANY ONE OF THE FACTORS ARE SLIGHTLY OFF ALIGNMENT THEN
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MAINLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
WON`T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM WEST OF A BEAVER TO HEREFORD LINE.
PWATS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES TO 1.65 INCHES WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD END ROUND 3 AM
SUNDAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WE SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY SO
THE WINDOW FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL (ROUGHLY 3 PM
TO 9 PM SUNDAY).

THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE RIDGE LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE AXIS
SITUATE ITSELF INTO A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION ROUGHLY FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
CONTINUED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALIVE FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WONDER AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHEASTWARD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS COULD SPELL AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP THIS PORTION DRY FOR NOW. IF A
WETTER FORECAST PROVES TRUE THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BE
TOO WARM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  90  67  95  69 /  10  20  30  10  10
BEAVER OK                  61  91  69  96  71 /   5  10  30  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              61  92  67  95  67 /  20  30  40  20  20
BORGER TX                  65  92  71  96  74 /   5  10  30  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              62  92  68  96  69 /  20  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  62  90  67  95  68 /  10  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               64  90  68  95  71 /   5  10  30  10  10
DALHART TX                 61  92  66  96  67 /  20  30  40  20  20
GUYMON OK                  63  94  69  96  70 /  10  20  40  10  10
HEREFORD TX                62  91  66  96  66 /  20  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                62  90  69  94  72 /   5  10  30  10  10
PAMPA TX                   62  90  68  94  70 /   5  10  30  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                63  90  68  94  72 /   5  10  30  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              65  90  69  95  72 /   5   5  30  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14




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