Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 032042
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
242 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS IF THE SNOW
DOES DEVELOP...ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO OR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH OR
SO. SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY AND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST.

CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FRIDAY MORNING INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF HINTS AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. THE NAM AND GFS FORECASTING DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IN THE FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT MAY BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
AND DRY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW 15 MPH ON THURSDAY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE
20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ACROSS THIS AREA OR A PORTION OF THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...EITHER 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND/OR MINIMUM AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET CRITERIA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK FOR ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                19  50  25  46  25 /   5   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  16  48  22  46  23 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              14  44  21  41  21 /  20   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  21  50  29  47  26 /   5   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              16  50  25  47  23 /  10   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  18  52  25  47  24 /   5   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               22  52  26  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 13  46  22  44  22 /  20   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  17  47  23  45  23 /   5   0   0   5   5
HEREFORD TX                17  50  23  46  23 /   5   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                17  50  25  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   19  48  26  46  26 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                21  51  26  51  29 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              23  52  26  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/11


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