Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232349
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TUESDAY...WITH
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AFTER
20Z TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS AND SLUGGISH WINDS THREW A WRENCH INTO THE FORECAST
TODAY BY HINDERING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. WHILE THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SAW
LESS CLOUD COVER, NORTHERLY WINDS LESSENED THE HEATING POTENTIAL. AS
A RESULT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOWER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED. THE ISOLATED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES HAS ALSO LESSENED DUE TO A STRONGER CAP AND
A LESS PRONOUNCED DRYLINE FORMATION. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE ZONES.

SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW TO SHIFT WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES WITH 15 TO 25 ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE A WIDE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO
THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE WE
WILL SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS TOMORROW, THEY WILL
BE OFFSET TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW.

COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARDS SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND TO BRING A RETURN OF 70S AND 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DIDN`T MATERIALIZE TODAY DUE TO
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DO STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AN ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES WITH THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES REACHING INTO
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE
8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, AS WINDS
WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THIS LOCATION, HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR THE 3 HOUR DURATION TO MEET CRITERIA.

A COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, NEITHER
ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/09




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