Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191146 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ LOW CLOUDS /WITH IFR CIGS/ HAVE MOVED IN AT THE KAMA
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE GONE AND
INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THESE CIGS AT KAMA THROUGH 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THOUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO
THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
AND TIMING ATTM IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC TROF ACTING AS A
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...SFC TROF IN ERN NM MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURG THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO WRN HALF OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS.
SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS AREA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE GRIDS. THE SAME
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AS WELL EXCEPT SLGT CHC
POPS HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FOR LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THRU NEXT FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF THE
LATTER HALF OF JULY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND REMAIN AROUND THE
VICINITY FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL...THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. ONE CAVEAT TO
ALL THIS IS THAT THE ECMWF IS TRENDING A BIT FARTHER W WITH ITS AXIS
COMPARED TO THE GFS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NRN
ZONES LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SOME PSBLTY OF TSTMS ALONG
IT. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST PCKG FROM TUE ONWARD AT THIS TIME DUE
TO SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE POTENTIAL WEAK BOUNDARY LATE
TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL BE STRONG ENUF TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ALONG IT. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS IF
MODEL TRENDS DICTATE.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03




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