Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 302112
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT AS POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THIS UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL REFRAIN FROM
INSERTING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AS THINK MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO MID 70S TO LOW 80S. NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MAY ALLOW FOR ANY CONVECTION FORMING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER THE UPPER FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG
SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE
EASTERN PLAINS IN NM.

.LONG TERM...
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FLOW WILL VEER FURTHER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST MONDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MONDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AS COVERAGE
OF THE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WHERE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. BEYOND MONDAY KEPT THE FORECAST DAY AS
A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NM WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
ALTHOUGH DID CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MEX AND ECE
GUIDANCE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT CATCHING ONTO THE MOIST SOILS
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  78  58  84  62 /   5   0   5  10  20
BEAVER OK                  50  82  59  86  62 /   0   0   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              51  83  58  88  59 /   5   5  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  55  82  61  89  65 /   5   0   5  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              53  83  60  89  63 /   5   5  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  53  79  58  84  62 /   5   0   5  10  20
CLARENDON TX               54  78  58  82  61 /   5   0   5  10  20
DALHART TX                 53  83  58  89  60 /   5   5  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  52  82  60  87  62 /   0   5   5  10  20
HEREFORD TX                53  81  59  86  62 /   5   5   5  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                51  79  59  83  63 /   0   0   5  10  20
PAMPA TX                   51  78  57  81  60 /   0   0   5  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                51  77  58  81  61 /   5   0   5  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              54  78  59  83  62 /   5   0   5  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/05




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