Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. The
exception will be later this afternoon/evening (similar story to
yesterday) when showers/thunderstorm chances return. Today looks
like KAMA and KGUY will be the potential terminals for this threat
of MVFR conditions with regards to lower ceilings and potentially
reduced visibilities in the heavier rainfall. KDHT has a lesser
chance so decided to leave them out for this period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/

For the 00z TAFs...
VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours.  Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may have a brief impact at GUY
early this evening, with other terminals likely remaining dry.
East and northeast surface winds expected this evening at northern
terminals on the north side of outflow-enhanced surface boundary.
No overnight visibility restrictions foreseen.  Southeast to
south surface winds resume at all terminals Sunday, with scattered
late afternoon thunderstorms expected along and east of a line
from GUY to AMA, where instability will be maximized.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/

The lee side low in the midst of all the high pressure continues
to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A
line of storms has formed along a boundary from Kenton southeast
to Wheeler. Shear is very anemic this afternoon so storms will
have a tough time trying to become supercells. Small hail may be
possible, but the main threat will be heavy rains from such slow
moving cells causing localized flooding.

Storm chances will continue through the night and into tomorrow
night with similar conditions present. Any boundaries left over
tomorrow will serve as the focus point for storm formation. By
Monday, the ridge of high pressure begins to strengthen and
squash out the low pressure center; thus cutting off chances for
storms. The ridge will continue to ride overhead through the week
and keep conditions dry and hot. By week`s end, the ridge begins
to drift off of us slightly. The moisture profiles look weak at
this point, so keeping the forecast dry, but shortwaves will have
the potential to eek into the area. Will have to watch for this to
create precip potential for the Panhandles again.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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