Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 110415

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1015 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Tuesday. West and southwest winds 5 to 10 knots or less will shift
to the north and increase to near 15 knots or 15 to 20 knots
after 14Z to 16Z Monday and then diminish again to 5 to 10 knots
after 21Z to 23Z Monday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 559 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

Had to cancel Red Flag Warning for the Oklahoma and northern Texas
Panhandles for Monday. Current grid forecast for the 20 foot
winds are less than 20 mph which is well below Red Flag Warning
criteria or elevated fire weather conditions. 20 foot winds and
minimum afternoon humidities are in the elevated fire weather
condition threshold and will let next shift issue a Fire Danger
Statement as necessary.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 532 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

VFR conditions will continue across the three TAF sites through
00Z Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable, north and northeast
to southeast around 5 knots or less, and then becoming southwest
to west 5 to 10 knots or less before shifting to the north 10 to
20 knots after 15Z to 17Z Monday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/


Besides tomorrow, still not a whole lot to talk about with the
forecast except the lack of weather. With 125 years of data, the all
time record for Amarillo shows the longest stretch without
measurable (0.01 or more) is 75 days. Today will mark 58 days. This
record seems increasingly possible with each day that passes and no
foreseeable precipitation in the forecast.

Noteworthy items worth discussing will be the breezy winds, dry
conditions, and favorable fuels in place across the Panhandles for
elevated and critical fire weather concerns Monday. A cold front will
pass through the region Monday, and the winds will be from the
north around 15 to 20 mph with gusts approaching 35 mph. This
coupled with low relative humidities will result in the need for a
Red Flag warning between 11 AM and 6 PM Monday. Please see the
fire weather section for slightly more details.

Outside of Monday, the rest of the forecast is quiet weather-wise,
and not much to speak about concerning impacts across the local
area. It does look like next week will be mostly above normal for
highs with daily highs in the mid 50s to near 70. If we do not
see any measurable precipitation by December 28th we will break
the record of 75 days without measurable precipitation marking 76
days by then.



Critical fire weather conditions will arise on Monday. With the lack
of precipitation for some time now, fuels across the region are
definitely favorable for fire growth. A cold front will pass through
the region on Monday, and afternoon wind speeds from the north will
be 15 to 20 mph with gusts approaching 35 mph. Relative humidities
will be mostly in the teens, ranging at its lowest point from 9 to
15 percent during peak heating Monday afternoon. These conditions
will meet criteria for critical fire weather conditions, especially
across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern parts of the Texas
Panhandle. The rest of the Texas Panhandle will be under elevated
fire weather concerns due to slightly weaker wind speeds.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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