Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 240827
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO USHER IN A LITTLE
COOLER CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WAS
CHURNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...A TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALOFT HAS ENVELOPED MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES WITH THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A RIBBON OF LINGERING MONSOON
MOISTURE JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS INFILTRATION OF
DRY AIR WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE TODAY. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLAUDE LINE...HOWEVER THEY/LL BE PRETTY
SPARSE. WINDS WON/T BE AS BREEZY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100F.

WE/LL START TO SEE A RENEWED SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BACK BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE BULK OF THIS TIME BASED ON THE PROGGED ORIENTATION OF THE
MONSOONAL PLUME. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ECMWF REMAINS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND THE FORECAST
GENERALLY SIDES TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION /ALTHOUGH NOT AS SLOW AS
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST/. SHOULD SEE THE COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BETTER MID/UPPER DYNAMICS RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE AREA AS A WHOLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S LATE NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT LOOK
TO REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY BY NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT
LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH.

KB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME BEFORE THE FRONT
MIXES BACK NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DESPITE
THE OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT ALONG WITH GREEN FUELS
WILL MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                95  68  93  68  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  99  72 100  70  97 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              93  62  94  64  91 /  10  10  20  20  30
BORGER TX                 100  71  97  71  96 /  10  10  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  69  95  69  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  95  67  94  67  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               98  69  96  69  95 /  20  20  20  20  10
DALHART TX                 95  63  94  64  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  98  67  98  68  96 /  10  10  20  20  30
HEREFORD TX                94  67  94  65  92 /  10  10  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                98  72  98  71  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   96  68  95  67  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                98  70  97  70  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              99  73  98  73  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.