Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 110526
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.AVIATION...
Dry flow at all levels will maintain a clear sky for the next 24
hours.  Surface lee-side trof will deepen today, with south
southwest surface winds gusting to around 30 kt between 16z and
00z Thursday.  No visibility restrictions expected.  VFR forecast
continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 613 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/

AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period.

Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly benign weather is expected across the Panhandles through
Thursday. The only exception is the potential for a frost across
the western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas Panhandles early
Wednesday day. A frost advisory has already been issued for these
areas. The quiet weather expected over the next couple of days is
the result of increasing heights aloft as a subtropical high
builds westward over the Gulf of Mexico. We have started our
gradual warming trend Today with highs in the 60s and will plateau
on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s. Once our surface
winds return from the south on Wednesday expect each afternoon to
be Panhandle breezy through Friday with sustained winds in the 15
to 25 mph range.

Friday night through Saturday could be our next best rain chances
over the next 7 days. This will be the result of an upper low
moving into the Great Plains with an associated surface cold front.
With that being said, there is a wide spread across models as to
the speed and southern progress the upper low will make. The GFS
gives us a glancing blow with the upper low which would reduce the
impact on our temperatures. The ECMWF shows a much deeper low
which could bring much cooler temperatures to the area. Have
trended lower in temperatures in the extended as the ECMWF has had
a better handle on the evolution of the upper track this season.
The result is highs in the 60s and 70s on Sunday with overnight
lows in the 40s.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Moore...Sherman.

OK...Frost Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Cimarron...Texas.

&&

$$

03/16



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