Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1154 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF site through 06Z
Tuesday. Southerly winds 5 to 15 knots will increase to around 15 to
25 knots with gusts to near 30 knots after about 14Z to 16Z
Monday...and then diminish to around 15 to 20 knots after 00Z



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

Southerly winds around 10 knots overnight will increase to 15 to 20
knots with higher gusts by mid morning on Monday. Skies will remain

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016/

A more active weather pattern will return to the Panhandles as we go
into the work week, especially as we go into the middle of the week.
For today, latest 21/12Z data 700-300 hPa moisture transport shows
around 50 g/kg of moisture advecting into our far western areas this
evening tonight. With CAPE averaging just under 1000 J/kg, this
could support an isolated elevated showers or thunderstorm as
convection develops in the high terrain of NM and moves east toward
our western CWA. Otherwise, bkn low to mid cloud deck across the
central and western Panhandle will continue into the afternoon and
break apart as we go into the evening/overnight hours. 850-700 hPa
winds will increase during the day on Monday which could increase our
chances of precipitation tomorrow night.

As we go through the remainder of the week, a developing trough over
the SW CONUS will have our region downstream of the trough axis. This
will provide several chances of showers and thunderstorms moving into
the region driven by diurnal convection with 500 hPa temperatures
ranging from -7C to -9C which supports mid level instability. Along
with a 500 hPa trough, latest model guidance does shift a 250 hPa
jet further to the north putting our region in the right entrance
region of the jet which will enhance upper level ascent. A surface
cold front will also move south from the central plains into the
Panhandles Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will provide us with
the best chances of showers and thunderstorms and will update the
forecast as we get closer to the event on Wednesday. As we go toward
the second half of the work week, the synoptic flow will become more
zonal with continuing low pressure impulses working east from the
high terrain, but chances of precipitation will decrease as we head
toward the weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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