669
FXUS65 KGJT 060516
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1116 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday,
  remaining above normal for the rest of the week.

- Precipitation chances will be hard to come by this week except
  for isolated afternoon convection over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Warm and dry air continues to funnel into the region to close
out the weekend with high pressure positioned overhead.
Isolated showers and storms may develop over the high terrain
again tomorrow afternoon (20% chance). Gusty outflow winds and
small hail are possible near stronger storms. Elsewhere, dry
conditions are expected with wind gusts up to 20-25 mph mixing
down during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

High pressure rises northwards through the Desert Southwest on
Monday, stalling out the closed low off the California coast.
This prolongs our residence under this drier pattern, and most
of the region should expect scattered cloud cover and isolated
showers confined to the high terrain at most. Deterministic
models are resolving a shortwave developing off the lee of the
Rockies Monday afternoon though, positively tilted into the far
southeastern corner of our CWA. This little bit of support pairs
with a mild pocket of moisture being pulled through the
southwesterly flow across Arizona and into our southern CWA,
thus boosting PoP`s to 30-45% across the San Juans. It`s still a
relatively modest potential for rainfall, but it`s likely that
this is where we will see the bulk of activity on Monday. Things
only get drier from here though as the high pressure transits
further to the north, setting up near the Four Corners. As a
result, precipitation potential on Tuesday and Wednesday will
rely on whatever lingering moisture may still be trapped west of
the Rockies, and there`s not much to tap into, with PWAT`s
65-80% of normal. Expect little more than sparse, isolated
showers along mountain ranges. To add, things will be warming up
under this pattern as well, placing the region 5-10 degrees
above normal. This would mean many lower valley locations will
reach triple digit highs throughout the week.

By Thursday, the California low will have shifted polewards
enough to skirt north of the blocking high. As a result though,
the shortwave associated with this low gets flattened between
the high pressure center to our south and near-zonal flow to our
north. This dampens upper-level support by the time it arrives
late Thursday or early Friday. Consequently, PoP`s are low late
in the week, though some orographically-driven storms across the
north cannot be ruled out. As of now though, it`s not looking
promising for much precipitation through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mostly clear skies and light, terrain driven winds will be the
pattern for the next 24 hours. Afternoon winds could gust up to
20 knots. There is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms
over the higher elevations of the San Juans and Divide
mountains. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT