Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 291253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
653 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Warm front continues to lift northward and VLIFR conditions mainly
east to west through the ELA/CXO/DWH/IAH/6R3 corridor with
improving visby to the south. Area of showers and a few
thunderstorms rapidly forming between 11R-CLL-UTS-DKR. Expecting
the area of showers to expand and shift east and northeast the
next few hours. Visby should be improving across the board through
15z. As the cold front pushes into the area may get one last
squeeze to help development of showers and isolated thunderstorms
through mid afternoon for IAH/HOU. Dry NW-N flow takes over
tonight with VFR conditions following a few hours after FROPA.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

Widespread dense fog noted across much of the southern half of SE
TX this morning...with the limited visibilities expected to ling-
er into the mid/late morning hours. This fog developed last night
in the wake of the yesterday`s cold front which has returned back
inland as a warm front. This boundary is expected to stall at/ar-
ound its current location (roughly along a Bellville to Cleveland
line) and could act as a focus for showers/isolated storms (given
some daytime heating). Rain chances will also buoyed with the ap-
proach/passage of a second stronger cold front this afternoon. At
this time only expecting widely scattered activity coverage given
the limited instability.

The cooler/drier weather in the wake of this front for Weds/Thurs
is expected to come to an end Friday. The return of onshore winds
and low-level moisture will be setting the stage for a wet/active
weekend. A deep closed upper low/trof (developing in the vicinity
of the California Baja) is progged to move east across nrn Mexico
Sat/Sun with a coastal surface trof setting up over the middle to
lower TX coast out ahead of it. These systems combined with poss-
ible PWs near 2" are all pointing to widespread unsettled weather
for most of the weekend with heavy rain as the main issue. Models
appear to be in slightly better agreement with these runs, but we
are still seeing the biggest differences with timing. So for now,
stay tuned. Will be adding some initial wording for this weekend
in the HWO later this morning. 41

Quite the variation across the UTCW with winds of 0-8 knots
nearshore and 15-19kts offshore and seas of 6-9 feet. Have kept the
marine dense fog going through 8 am with visibilities of 1 mile or
less and extended the SCA nearshore to 6 am and noon for the
offshore waters. Winds become southwest today and in general relax
somewhat ahead of the incoming cold front. Expect the cold front to
move off the coast between 6 and 8 pm near Matagorda Bay then
Galveston Bay 7-9 pm. Winds in the wake of the front gradually
increase and may need SCA/SCEC by Wednesday 3-6 am for the Gulf
waters. Northerly winds Wednesday through Thursday morning then
winds begin to veer to the NE and E. Long easterly fetch develops
late Friday as coastal troughing forms and flow ramps up bringing
another round of SCA conditions. Eventually the next front kicks
through Saturday night/early Sunday with SCA conditions again in the
wake of the frontal passage.


College Station (CLL)      75  47  66  40  67 /  30  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              78  53  69  41  67 /  30  30  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            77  61  71  52  66 /  20  40  10   0   0


TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.



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