Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 162302
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR and SKC with weakening winds overnight. Lighter winds tomorrow.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure will bring an unseasonably cool airmass to Southeast
Texas over the next couple of days. Coolest temperatures are
expected later tonight and Tuesday morning with low temperatures
falling into the 40s and 50s. Slightly warmer conditions are
expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning; although, will not be
surprised if some locations have temperatures to fall to tonight`s
levels.

An upper level shortwave ridge will move across the area on
Wednesday as the surface ridge pushes off to the northeast. This
will help easterly winds to begin returning Gulf moisture to the
area, slowly on Wednesday and then in earnest by Thursday.

The longer range global models have some differences for the
upcoming system over the upcoming weekend. A consensus has rain
chances returning Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper level
shortwave trough move into the state from the west. Both the ECWMF
and GFS are starting to come together for Saturday and Sunday but
am not confident enough to go higher than 30 to 40 percent POPS.
If confidence increases and model consensus comes together better
later tonight and tomorrow, will probably see rain chances
increase. Model blends show a decent likelihood for a frontal
boundary to end rain chances Sunday night and Monday.

40

MARINE...
Offshore winds over the bays have decreased this afternoon but are
still going strong across the Gulf waters. Have extended the Small
Craft Advisory for the the coastal waters through this evening. We
should be seeing a more light to moderate N/NE flow overnight/Tues
as high pressure builds in from the Plains. Winds will be shifting
to the east by Wed as the high moves off to the east. Onshore flow
is progged to be in place by Fri. 41

FIRE WEATHER...
A bit more drier air has managed to mix down this afternoon on the
heels of the strong/fairly deep northerly flow in the wake of last
nights front. Locations generally south of I-10/west if I-45 could
see a brief period of Elevated Fire Conditions the rest of this af-
ternoon. These lower RH values(25-30%) are possible again tomorrow
afternoon for the same areas, but winds should be lighter. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      48  81  50  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              53  80  55  84  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            62  79  68  82  73 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
     Matagorda.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

25/42



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