Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 301624
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH FAIR WEATHER. DESPITE THE RIDGING
PATTERN...MANY AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS. SOUTHEAST
TEXAS IS ON THE EDGE OF A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD.

ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE GRIDS. TWEAKED DEWPONT GRIDS TO MATCH THE
OBS AND EDITED SKY GRIDS. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 AND THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT PUSHED OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. ONGOING CAA AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COLDER TODAY VERSUS YDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING BACK TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AND ESE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY MOVES EWD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RESUME SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS AND A MESSY SW FLOW ALOFT (IN ASSOCIATION W/
WESTERN TROF). THAT BEING SAID...I DID SLIGHTLY DECREASE POPS AND
DELAY ONSET ON OF RAIN CHANCES ON SAT AS ORIENTATION/TRAJECTORY
OF FLOW ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER CHANCES MOSTLY TO OUR
WEST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. CHANCES THEN INCREASE SAT NIGHT AND
PEAK SUN AFTN AS INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COINCIDES WITH BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE AND UPPER PATTERN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
1/4-1/2" STILL LOOK REASONABLE W/ A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY
EVENING W/ DRY COOL WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEST COAST TROF MENTIONED ABOVE BECOMES CUTOFF
AND SAGS TOWARD CABO THIS WEEKEND. MODELS KICK IT OUT AND TO THE
NE ON MONDAY AND INTO S TX TUE/WED. AS THIS OCCURS A SFC COASTAL
TROF/LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF TAMPICO AND MOVE NE TOWARD
THE LA COAST INTO MIDWEEK. SO...LOOKING LIKE POPS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE TUES AND INTO WED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA UNTIL THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHEN THAT`LL BE AS TIMING ISN`T EXACTLY ON THE SAME
PAGE (GFS FASTER/ECMWF SLOWER). ONGOING FCST HAS BEEN GOING W/ THE
FASTER SOLN BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE`LL NEED TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT IN THE DAYS TO COME.

ONCE IT DOES DEPART...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. 47

MARINE...
NELY WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR TODAY. THIS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FCST TO LESSEN
AND SHIFT TO THE E/SE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER WINDS COULD PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUN AS MODELS ARE INDICAT-
ING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST BEFORE
TRACKING UP TOWARD SE TX. A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON LATE SUN/EARLY MON. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS/SEAS MON INTO
TUES. 41

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RETURNS
TRYING TO SNEAK INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES (AS PER REGIONAL COMPOSITE RA-
DAR). NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN ATTM GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS ALREADY
IN PLACE. GENERALLY VFR WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  44  60  57  64 /   0  10  40  50  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  45  61  57  69 /   0  10  20  30  80
GALVESTON (GLS)            56  51  59  57  63 /   0  10  20  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



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