Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180438
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers have developed as a result of strong
warm air advection, moisture advection and vorticity advection
ahead of an upper level shortwave trough. The 00Z NAM12 shows the
vorticity advection pattern moving northeastward and expect the
chances for showers will diminish enough to take out the vicinity
shower mention in the forecasts by 09Z. Otherwise, the models
were showing a good potential for at least MVFR conditions at
most sites overnight tonight; although, the SREF probabilities
were less at KGLS. As the ceilings lift during the mid and late
morning hours on Thursday, breezy conditions are again expected to
develop across the area. The models do show some potential that
MVFR conditions could develop during the mid and late evening
Thursday.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another very warm night is expected across SE TX as clouds help
insulate and winds provide mixing. It won`t be as windy as last
night but winds are not expected to decouple overnight. A weak
disturbance over South Texas will scoot up the coast later tonight
and early Thursday. This feature will likely generate a few
showers late tonight into early Thursday. The region remains
capped so only a few light showers are anticipated. Some drying is
expected in the wake of the disturbance Thursday afternoon.
Tweaked sky grids and overnight PoPs but the rest of the forecast
looks on track.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another disturbance will bring
scattered showers on Saturday. It does not look like a wash out
but most areas will get a little rain. Better rain chances will
occur on Sunday as a cold front crosses SE TX. Favorable jet
dynamics, coupled with PW values near 1.90 inches and low level
sfc convergence along the boundary should give the area some much
needed rainfall. Although current models not showing heavy
rainfall at this time, a front with jet dynamics this time of
year is one to watch closely.

Galveston tied a record high today and may set a record warm
minimum if the temp doesn`t fall below 79. Winds and clouds will
probably keep temps at or above 79 through 06z. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  90  74  90  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
Houston (IAH)              75  88  75  88  75 /  20  20  10  20  20
Galveston (GLS)            79  85  79  84  79 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Thursday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40



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