Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141504
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1004 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVED 12 Z SOUNDINGS FROM KLCH AND KCRP SHOWING LESS MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE PROFILE THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THERE WERE SOME VERY SMALL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE SUN WILL EVENTUALLY
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW
MUCH AND WHEN. THE ANSWER TO THIS QUESTION WILL DRASTICALLY
AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 18C
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP WHEN THE SUN BEGINS TO BREAK
OUT. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE CLOUD COVER
WHILE THE NAM HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB. GIVEN THIS AND THE
MOISTURE PROFILE FROM OBSERVED AND FORECASTED SOUNDINGS THINKING
THE SUN WILL COME OUT LATER RATHER THAN SOONER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX
TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12 Z NAM. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY COOL WX ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOUDINESS COULD BE SLOW TO BREAK TODAY (IF IT
DOES)...POSSIBLY LATE AFTN FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS`LL BE THE KEY
AS TO HOW MUCH TEMPS WARM UP TODAY AND ATTM FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE
GOING WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES
OUT AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TROF IN THE GULF MOVE CLOSER.
UNLIKELY THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOPS BEFORE THE
AXIS APPROACHES THE WRN GULF COAST LATE MON. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THIS OCCURS ALONG WITH A BUMP IN ASSOCIATED
RAIN CHANCES...WHICH`LL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE. MODELS THIS MORNING AREN`T HOWEVER SHOWING QUITE AS
MUCH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER SE TX AS PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS BUT
STILL RESPECTABLE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER END SCT COVERAGE ESP THE SRN
HALF OF SE TX. WOULD ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE
USUAL DIURNAL TREND (NEAR COAST AT NIGHT/MORNINGS EXPANDING INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. OVERALL...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
ONGOING FCST. 47

MARINE...
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS HELP-
ING TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS A BIT ELEVATED THIS MORNING. AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE DROPPING THE CAUTION FLAGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MID MORN
OR SO. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FCST FOR THE OFFSHORE THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONT LINGERING
IN THE AREA INTERACTS WITH A WEAK TUTT LOW MOVING WWD TOWARD THE LOW-
ER TX COASTLINE.  41

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
THE DRIER AIR LOFT MIXING DOWN. NO MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS NEXT TAF
PACKAGE FOR ANY OF THE SITES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CIGS TONIGHT/
MON MORNING WILL BE DECREASED PER THE DEEPENING DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLING OVER SE TX. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  71  91  74  91 /   0   0  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  71  91  75  90 /   0   0  40  10  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  79  88  80  89 /   0  20  40  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23


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