Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 252328
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT KCLL...KSGR...
AND KLBX AROUND AND AFTER SUNRISE. AS OCCURRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE/BAY
BREEZE INTERACTION AFTER 21Z ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR KHOU AND
KIAH.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH HEAT INDICES ALONG THE COAST IN THE 102 TO 107
RANGE AS OF 3 PM CDT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH 12Z RAOBS SHOWING IT
CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN BETWEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY... SIDED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING GIVING WAY TO PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN WEST OF
INTERSTATE 45 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THE RIDGE/S PROXIMITY TO THE REGION WILL HELP PROMOTE A HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER... WITH THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION... WEAKNESSES
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... NAMELY THE TTU-WRF/ARW/NMM... SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING INTO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES REACHES
THE AREA. HOWEVER... CARRYING POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS
FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AGAIN WITH HEAT
INDICES AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST PEAKING
IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.

A LESSENED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.8 TO 2 INCHES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE SOME OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FORECAST IN
SEVERAL DAYS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... WITH 20 POPS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. ADDITIONALLY... WE COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT/S BEEN OBSERVED THIS WEEKEND IN THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT.

A PASSING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE
RIDGE TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN BACK
TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CAUTION FLAGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION (MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST) IS ANTICIPATED
TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THIS FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  99  76  98  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  99  79  98  78 /   0  10  10  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  91  82  91  82 /   0  10  20  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...40


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