Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270459
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
KEEPING AN EYE ON DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF
TONIGHT. MODELS INSISTENT ON SCT COVERAGE TOMORROW/WEDS...BUT BEST
CHCS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA (CLOSEST TO DEEP-
ER MOISTURE/BEST LIFT). 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF FOR THE TIME BEING. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST AGAIN AFTER 2AM OR SO. TWEAKED 1ST
PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. REST OF PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR ACT-GYB-
PSX AND FEW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE RICH AIR FROM
LFK-6R3-HIGH ISLAND. STORMS MOVING FROM NE TO SW AND EXPECT TO SEE
MORE DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND 93-97 SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME CAP. AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL HEAVY DOWNPOURS THOUGH THEY ARE MOVING
10-15 KNOTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL STORMS WHICH DUE
TO SEABREEZE MAY ACT LIKE AN ANCHOR TO FOCUS HEAVIER RAINS AND
SLOW THE STORMS. STORMS SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING BETWEEN 7-9 PM.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF/LA TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING WEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES WEST TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE OVER SETX AND
STRONGER LL ADVECTION OF THE MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND EXPECTING GOOD COVERAGE.
SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
STORMS FOR STREET FLOODING POTENTIAL. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE ITSELF AND THINK THAT THE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK.

THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES NEAR STATIC THU/FRI WITH THE MOISTURE TAP
OVER THE AREA AND REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY. HAVE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE POPS BUT IN GENERAL
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES DIPPING A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  93  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  88  80  89  81 /  40  60  50  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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