Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 260437
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
CAPPING INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUES MORNING. THE NAM12 AND GFS DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO
HOW QUICKLY HEATING WILL MIX THINGS OUT. THE NAM12 KEEPS CIGS IN
PLACE MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE GFS MIXES THINGS OUT AND
ELIMINATES CIGS BETWEEN 17-18Z. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE 06Z
TAF PACKAGE. ALSO ADDED SHRA FOR KUTS/KCLL FOR TUES EVENING AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.60 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE
STRONG CAPPING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TIGHT AND WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND MODERATE S-SE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

UPDATE...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANVIL DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA... WITH 9 PM
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1-2.5KFT AGL. WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS... INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION IN OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
AS ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

FOR THE MARINE UPDATE... CAUTION FLAGS WERE ISSUED FOR THE BAYS
AND COASTAL WATERS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING FROM THE WEST...CU FIELD ACROSS SE
TX THIS AFTN NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. THIS BREAK FROM THE STORMS/
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW...BUT CHANGE
APPEARS TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME THIS WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER STARTING TUES NIGHT OVER
NWRN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THIS RISK AREA SHIFTING INTO THE REST
OF THE CWA ON WEDS. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TUES...BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD SHOT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH SE TX LATE TUES
NIGHT ON INTO WEDS. PROGS OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SYSTEM AND PERHAPS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW ALL POINT-
ING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK HAS MORE DETAILS.

A BIT OF A BREAK WEDS NIGHT WITH MAYBE SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ON
THURS BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM/ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ON
FRI. WHILE THESE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW TRACKING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH OF THE REGION (THAN PREVIOUS RUNS)...WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF
THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FRI INTO SAT. FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH HIGH
PWS (APPROACHING 2" IN SOME SPOTS) KIND OF HINTING AT THE POSSIB-
ILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN. NO REAL CONSENSUS ON THE
EXACT WHERE THIS WILL FALL ATTM...BUT A GENERAL HEADS UP THAT THE
MODELS ARE POINTING IN THIS DIRECTION.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THIS WET/ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY BEING MET. RAIN CHANCES GO UP THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  87  68  84  66 /  10  10  50  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  86  72  85  70 /  10  10  20  50  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  82  73  80  73 /  10  10  20  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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