Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 140945
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 09Z COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM KSHV TO KACT AND MAKING QUICK
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. AREA RADAR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER C TX. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT STILL SHOULD BE A
THIN LINE OF CONVECTION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS POLAR JET STREAK
OVER HILL COUNTRY THROUGH E TX WITH ANOTHER JET STREAK COMING
INTO W TX. THIS JET IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE TX
PANHANDLE. STRONG 850MB LLJ AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KDRT
THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. SFC MOISTURE AXIS
STARTS OVER UPPER TX COAST AND BENDS NE TOWARDS MISS RIVER VALLEY
AS WELL. WITH MAINLY VEERED FLOW FROM SSW TO W ALOFT...POSSIBLE
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS INDIVIDUALLY MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH. THE 850MB FRONT ALSO LAGS BACK BEHIND THE SFC FRONT
SO THERE COULD BE AN AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE 850MB FRONT THAT IS
UNSTABLE. THINK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WHICH
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THAT IS NOT TO SAY A FEW STORMS
COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL/WIND BUT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE SMALL
DUE TO THE LACK OF QUALITY WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR STORMS.

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 60 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG SO HAVE A
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
MAIN ISSUE CONCERNING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
CAPPING SEEN ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. THIS WILL BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND JET
STREAM. SO GIVEN MORE ELEVATED NATURE TO CONVECTION AND THE
CAP...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA SIMILAR TO
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

TUE/WED THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE
VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS THE 850MB FREEZING LINE IS PROJECTED
TO REACH THE CXO/IAH AREA BY 12-18Z TUE PER THE GFS. VERY POSSIBLE
THAT MIN TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. QUICK
LOOK AT RECORD LOWS FOR TUE/WED HAS KCLL WITH 38/36 AND
FORECASTING 35/37. HOUSTON IAH RECORD LOWS ARE 38/38 AND THAT IS
WHAT IS FORECASTED. GALVESTON HAS RECORD LOWS OF 41/51 AND
FORECASTING 45/50. SO THERE IS A REAL POSSIBILITY THAT SOME RECORD
LOW TEMPS COULD FALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. MAX TEMPS FOR
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH COLD ADVECTION HOLDING ON FOR TUE MAX TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID 60S BUT THEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS CHALLENGING AS GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
A STRONG SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE PLAINS THUR/FRI. COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. ECMWF IS NOT AS POTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
SEEMS TO BE TRENDING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. VERY FEW CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST UNTIL MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE DETAILS
BETTER.

39

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS WILL FALL TO 1.5 TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFT HOURS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS
RELAXING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PREVAIL WED AND THU...WITH A MUCH WEAKER COOL FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE MARINE AREA ON FRIDAY. 33

.FIRE...
STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSET BY
RAINFALL AND FALLING TEMPERATURES SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES TODAY. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
TODAY CONCERNING THE NEED FOR A RFW ON TUESDAY. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  35  63  37  70 /  60  10   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  38  63  38  70 /  60  10   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  45  62  50  66 /  60  20   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...33



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