Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290449
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL CIGS STILL VFR AND ONLY EXPECTING PATCHY FOG AT
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO IF THAT. ONLY AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AFTERNOON
TSRA AS EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH LOW 90S AGAIN OR NEAR CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.8-2 INCHES DURING THE DAY SO
PLENTY MOIST FOR STORMS ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGEST LESS ACTIVITY ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY
WITH WRF-ARW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION AND TX TECH WRF
NOT FAR BEHIND. STILL LOOKING FOR SCT ACTIVITY SO NOT ALL
TERMINALS MAY SEE TSRA.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS EVENING. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE REST OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE GONE WITH 20% POPS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH (INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS). FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN
UPDATED.  42

CLIMATE...
IAH`S RAINFALL TOTAL FOR JUNE (THRU THIS AFTERNOON) STANDS AT 9.13 INCHES.
THE TENTH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD IS 9.65 INCHES BACK IN 1981.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS C TO E TX. SOUTH OF
THAT BOUNDARY ARE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE BEEN
DRIVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING STORMS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART DISSIPATED. LONE
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION W OF KCLL BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING. EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH MAYBE SOME PATCHING FOG FOR
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. NW FLOW ALOFT STILL SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION WITH DAY TIME HEATING. PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL AROUND
1.8-2.0 INCHES TOMORROW AS WELL. HAVE VCTS IN TAFS FOR LBX
STARTING AROUND 17Z AND THEN 19-20Z FOR HOUSTON TERMINALS
NORTHWARD. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCT SO POSSIBLE THAT TSRA MAY NOT
AFFECT EVERY TERMINAL TOMORROW. IN FACT COVERAGE TOMORROW SHOULD
BE LESS THAN TODAY.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SCT TSRA THIS AFT AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH
WHERE IT IS DRIER. EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE MOST SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVE. WILL
LIKELY SEE ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SE AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
STILL SEE SCT TSRA WITH HEATING THRU WED. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING
OCCURS LATE THIS WEEK AND THEN MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. NOT MUCH CHG IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVR THE
WESTERN U.S. UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THAT RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFIES. A BROAD FLAT RIDGE DOMINATES NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN RAIN
CHCS. SO...IN A NUTSHELL...EXPECT SOME PRECIP CHC FLUCTUATIONS
BASED MAINLY ON LAYER MOISTURE DECREASING THU/FRI AND THEN
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN
NEAR CLIMO VALUES. 33

MARINE... A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE RESULT OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

BY MID-WEEK...AN INCREASING ON-SHORE FLOW BECOMES LIKELY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF THAT IS SAGS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  91  73  90  72 /  10  30  20  40  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  91  75  90  75 /  20  40  20  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  88  81  88  81 /  20  40  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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