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000
FXUS64 KHGX 150935
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS...LINGERING BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY ANAHUAC TO
MADISONVILLE. THOUGH IT`LL PROBABLY WAFFLE ABOUT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE ONE OF ABOUT 3 FACTORS IN SOME SCT
SHRA/TSTMS TODAY - PRIMARILLY LATE AFTN AND EVNG ONCE WE HEAT UP
AGAIN. THE OTHER 2 TRIGGERS WILL PROBABLY BE A COMBIINATION OF THE
SEABREEZE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE
BIG BEND AREA AND ACROSS N TX. EXPECT VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIP TO
BE MESO/MICROSCALE DRIVEN BASED ON BOUNDARY LOCATION(S) AND
HEATING BUT GENERALLY KEPT INHERITED POPS SHOWING NE PARTS OF THE
CWA HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES AGAIN. FCST SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK TO
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS. LESS COVERAGE
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AS MODEL DATA AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGES
INDICATES LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

UPPER FLOW TRENDS MOSTLY ZONAL OVER SE TX INTO EARLY WEEK WITH A
WEAK FLAT RIDGE SITUATED OFFSHORE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF RIPPLES
MOVING ACROSS N TX. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO N TX
EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP THERE. BULK OF IT
LOOKS TO OCCUR WELL TO OUR NORTH BUT IT`LL BE WORTH WATCHING FOR
ANY BOUNDARIES PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THAT MAY AFFECT NRN COUNTIES.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SUGGEST BERMUDA HIGH PUSHES WESTWARD INTO
CNTL/WRN GULF AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
MEXICO DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ORIENTATION &
STRENGTH OF BOTH DON`T APPEAR TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP HOWEVER.

MORE SIGNIFICANT FCST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF
BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF/WEAKNESS FROM THE YUCATAN UP INTO S TX
WHICH FAVORS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. GFS HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE IN THE YUCATAN BUT KEEPS THE RIDGE STRONG ENOUGH OVER TX TO
SUPPRESS BEST MOISTURE ETC WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO.  47

&&

.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE NEXT MARINE PACKAGE AS THE LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS PATTERN WITH THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. NO ADVISORIES/FLAGS ANTICIPATED
ATTM. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
STORMS THAT TRIED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS NORTH TO
SOUTH LINE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MUCH MORE THAN VCTS FOR UTS/CXO/IAH FOR THE
LATE AFTN TIME FRAME ATTM. OTHERWISE WILL BE TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH
THE BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE GENERALLY VFR COND-
ITIONS THIS AFTN/EVE. A REPEAT OF THIS PATTERN LIKELY FOR TOMORROW.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  76  94 /  30  20  20   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  94  75  94 /  20  10  20   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  80  90  80  89 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$