Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 132047
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HOUSTON COUNTY AT THIS TIME HAS A THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...BENEATH
THE CAP. THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THOSE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MOST PLACES.

ON MONDAY...COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN EROSION OF THE
CAP...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GIVE RAIN TO
MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING FRONT REACHING
CALDWELL...BRYAN AND CROCKETT AROUND 7 OR 8 AM...AND REACHING THE
COAST AROUND 1 OR 2 PM. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOOKING FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS AS A MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ENTERS THE
AREA ON A GUSTY NORTH WIND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS LIKE GALVESTON
WHICH ARE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AFTER COLD MORNINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP
AND MORE HUMIDITY AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ACTUALLY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
FRIDAY WITH ECMWF KEEPING COOLER AIR FARTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. 46

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING AND LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTER THIS
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS
OVER THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL.

IN THE MEANTIME HAZE AND PATCHY FOG WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS PEAKING A FEW KNOTS HIGHER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS TO STREAM IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
THE FRONT THEN WITH ALL OF THE BROAD SCALE LIFT/EROSION OF CAP AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE SHOWERS BECOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN 18-21Z WITH LINGERING ELEVATED STORMS ENDING BY 00ZISH.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A DROP IN
WINDSPEEDS FROM GALE DOWN TO 15 TO 20KTS AND TURNING WINDS MORE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

45
&&

.FIRE...
STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE OFFSET BY RAINFALL AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES SO DON`T EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MONDAY BUT MAY
BE A DIFFERENT STORY FOR TUESDAY. GREEN UP HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA AND
RAINS WILL WET THE FUELS BUT THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DRY OUT THE FUELS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS. MAY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MONDAY
FOR TUESDAY BUT GIVEN THE MOIST FUELS IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  66  35  63  38 /  40  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  73  41  65  40 /  30  60  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  70  47  64  51 /  20  60  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



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