Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 122026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
326 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Hot afternoon with temperatures in the 90-96 degree range with
dewpoints having mixed out into the 69-75 degree range inland and
at 80 in Galveston. This means that the heat index readings across
the area range from around 107 at Galveston/Sugarland to 103 to
105 across Houston to 99 to 104 elsewhere across the region. The
heat advisory remains in effect through 7 pm and will let it
expire. Storms developing north of the I-20 corridor should
eventually turn and move east and east southeast overnight. These
could eventually impact the far northern counties after midnight
through late morning depending on the evolution...will carry
slight chance POPS there but these may be overdone given the
strength of the cap and general subsidence across the area.

Sunday rain chances look very slim and the hot weather will
continue. Temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 90s this
week inland and with the persistent light to moderate southerly
flow (varying from southwest to south-southeast) will keep the
dewpoints elevated. A surge of moisture over the North Central
and East Gulf will be getting pushed west and northwest and
should spread into the area Tuesday/Early Wednesday and this
should boost rain chances slightly and with a little more wind
probably lower temperatures for a day on Tuesday. Heat advisory
conditions will be close for small parts of the area Sunday and
Monday mainly in and around the Metro and to the west and
southwest. Ridging sets in by late Wednesday and then possibly the
northern end of a tropical wave swings by to the south of our
persistent upper ridge on Thursday afternoon/night which may put
us back into rain chances again though confidence of the wave is
low and the strength of the ridge still looks pretty potent. So
the long and short of it...hot...continued hot...low rain chances
this week.

Tropics...
Good chance for development of a system north of the Turks moving
northwest and then recurving may be primarily a fish storm.
Through Friday no impacts for SETX other than perhaps the
tropical wave at the end of the week and that would be minor.
45

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains over the Gulf, drifting eastward just enough
for southwesterly winds to become more southerly. This high will
remain anchored over the Gulf for these winds to continue deep into
the week. Lower pressures look to emerge tonight over West Texas,
which will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increase in
winds. As a result, the diurnally stronger overnight winds over the
waters could increase to SCEC levels nightly for at least the first
half of the week.

The expected increase in winds will result in a gradual building of
seas and tides through the first half of the week. Seas may be as
high as 4-6 feet, and tides can be expected to run noticeably above
astronomical tide, but currently are forecast to top out below 2.5
feet, which would mitigate impacts to coastal areas.

Luchs

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  97  78  99  78 /  10  10   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)              79  96  79  97  79 /  10  10   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            83  90  83  91  84 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...Montgomery...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...25



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