Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262312
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER EAST TEXAS WILL PROBABLY WANE BEFORE REACHING AREA
TAF SITES SO WILL START THE TAF SITES DRY. SEA BREEZE MIGHT BRING
A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE FOR KIAH THIS EVENING BUT THE OVERALL
WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LEANED TOWARD
PERSISTENCE WHICH WILL BRING IFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY MIXING OUT WITH
HEATING. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY (UNDER 1.8 INCHES) SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ON MONDAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET... ALBEIT HOT... AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S REPORTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WERE PRODUCING HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 96 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED TWO CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE REGION... ONE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
AND THE OTHER ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLOWLY
INCREASING /NOW INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE/... CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MET OVER THE EASTERN ZONES... AND HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45 COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. EVEN IF WHATEVER ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS DOESN/T PUSH TOO FAR WESTWARD INTO THE REGION OWING TO
INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER RIDGE... AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO MAY STILL POP UP NEAR THE HOUSTON METRO AS A LATE AFTERNOON
BAY BREEZE FROM GALVESTON BAY INTERACTS WITH A SEA BREEZE PUSHING
OFF THE COAST. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS
AND AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF THE CUMULUS FIELD AROUND GALVESTON BAY.

FOR TONIGHT... LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP OR CREEP INTO THE AREA TO DISSIPATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH... LEAVING THE REGION
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING /MID 70S
INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST/. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON METRO.
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS SEEING 1 TO 2 MILE VISIBILITIES.

TODAY/S REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MAY SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY... INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT WILL YET
AGAIN BE A CONCERN MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN AND PLAN ON CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARD IN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

IN THE EXTENDED /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HOT TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL SITES
FLIRTING WITH OR EVEN REACHING THE CENTURY MARK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA/BAY BREEZES WITH ONLY
SILENT POPS CARRIED FOR NOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS AS FAR EAST AS ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE
FLATTENING AND BUILDING WEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS... A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE /FROM BOTH THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY/.

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED THIS
WEEKEND... ALLOWING FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.8 TO ALMOST
2.1 INCHES IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE FIRST SHOT IN AWHILE AT SOME WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH BACK
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NO CAUTION FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BEGINNING EITHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR ON INTO THURSDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT COULD BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AREA.
THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
LEVELS DEEPEN. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  91  81  90  81 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43


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