Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 131215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR. High pressure traveling across the region will ensure clear
skies...light northerly winds with a veering to the northeast
late in the period. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018/

Clear skies and cold temperatures are found across Southeast Texas early
this morning as surface high pressure builds into the area from the
north. We have a couple more hours for temperatures to fall toward
expected lows, but we might not end up getting as cold as anticipated.
The high will stay in control of the area today, and the associated
north winds will keep the area on the cool side with temperatures
warming into the the upper 40s to lower 50s. As the high moves off
to the east tonight and tomorrow, winds will come around to the east
overnight (several hours of below freezing temperatures) and the
southeast during the day on Sunday (high temperatures in the lower
to mid 50s). Warmer temperatures (compared to the weekend cold) can
be expected Sunday night and Monday with south to southeast winds.
A lot of uncertainty and low forecaster confidence comes into play
Monday night through Tuesday night as the next cold front moves
through the area. Much colder temperatures can be expected when
the front moves on through Monday night through Tuesday morning
(have leaned toward the colder ECMWF guidance), and some of our
far northern areas could see a wintry mix of precipitation before
sunrise Tuesday morning as temperatures fall toward freezing. This
wintry mix has some potential to work its way southward during the
day on Tuesday as temperatures continue their downward trend, but
some drier air filtering into the area from the north might help to
minimize this wintry precipitation risk. Wednesday is expected to
be dry and cold, and rain comes back into the forecast during the
Thursday/Friday time period. 42


Water-wide caution level winds through the morning...expected
weakening over the bays by late morning. High pressure moving
across the northwestern Gulf will kill the offshore gradient
enough to weaken Gulf winds and lower seas to below caution through
the afternoon. The Low Water Advisory has been allowed to continue
through at least mid morning...or until many sites come out of low

Light winds will slowly veer around the eastern side of the dial
through Sunday. Onshore winds Monday will back east-northeasterly
early Tuesday as the waters fall just downstream of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will pass off the coast Tuesday morning
and strengthen northeasterlies to Advisory criteria from Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. A potential for late Monday
fog just ahead of the front with just rain/showers forecast in
association with (early) Tuesday`s frontal passage. Near caution
level easterly winds and fairly elevated seas will persist from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. 31


College Station (CLL)      48  28  52  36  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              50  29  52  36  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            50  38  50  46  61 /   0   0   0   0  10


GM...Low Water Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
     the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.



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