Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241012
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MCS MOVING UP THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WINDS NEAR
OR ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...CAN`T RULE OUT TORNADOES
AS WELL WITH THE SHALLOW LL SHEAR PRESENT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA REACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 11-14Z THEN SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST. THIS MAY GIVE THE
AREA A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM HEAVY RAINS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY GET MORE STORMS GOING BUT
NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM EAST OF THE AREA BACK INTO THE CWA.
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH A RESTRENGTHENING
LLJ. THESE TWO SYSTEM MAY WELL MERGE OVER THE REGION...NOT SURE IF
IT WILL BE NORTH OR SOUTH BUT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. SO
LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON MONDAY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND LIMITED
HEATING TO WORK WITH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FOR ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND HAVE ALSO ADDED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THE RIP CURRENTS
ADVISORY.

VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTERING UP IN
THE MCV/COMMA COMING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 59 CORRIDOR
WHICH COULD EASILY FOCUS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM COLUMBUS TO
CONROE TO GROVETON...RAIN RATES OF 3+ INCHES PER HOUR AREN`T OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TODAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER CLUSTERS. WITH MORE ON THE WAY FOR
TOMORROW.

45

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT REGION TOWARDS THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE /EVIDENCED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DRIVEN MORE BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
LINEAR MCS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY
WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR WINDS 25-40+ KNOTS.   STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS OF 5-9 FEET
SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING. LARGE RUN
UP FROM THE SWELLS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO FLOODED
BEACHES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. GRADUALLY WINDS COME DOWN TUESDAY
AND RIP TIDES SHOULD LESSEN.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  73  82  72  86 / 100  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 / 100  70  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  78  83  77  84 / 100  60  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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