Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 221204
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

.UPDATE...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas generally north of
I-10 and west of I-45 through 8 AM where widespread visibilities
of 1/2 to 2 miles are occurring. Visibilities are expected to
improve 8-9 AM with onset of daytime heating.

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns center around LIFR
to VLIFR stratus/fog impacting IAH/CXO/CLL/UTS this morning and
SHRA/TSRA development near the terminals through early evening.

Recent rainfall and calm winds in the vicinity of a stalled
frontal boundary has resulted in LIFR to VLIFR stratus and fog
development this morning. Expect onset of daytime heating to
result in visibilities and ceilings to lift after 13Z, with VFR
conditions prevailing for the Southeast Texas terminals through
tonight outside of TSRA/SHRA. Patchy fog development will be
possible again near CXO/CLL early Tuesday morning, resulting in at
least MVFR visibilities.

Attention then turns to SHRA/TSRA potential for today. A broken
line of TSRA currently extends from 66R to ARM, pushing north-
northeast. Depending on how well the line holds together, CLL/SGR
may be skirted by this activity closer to 14Z. Otherwise,
scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to move inland off the Gulf
through the remainder of the morning with additional scattered
TSRA developing farther inland with heating by late morning once
temperatures rise into the upper 80s. SHRA/TSRA will be capable of
locally heavy rain leading to IFR/MVFR visibilities as well as
stronger wind gusts approaching 20-25 knots. Expect storms to
dissipate with loss of heating this evening.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
At 3 this morning the stationary front was draped across North
Texas from near TXK-FWS with light onshore flow across the Upper
Texas Coast. Patchy fog was developing across the northern
counties and could thicken to the point of needing a short lived
dense fog advisory if it doesn`t become a low stratus deck. Near
the coast have a couple of showers and thunderstorms move into the
from near LBX to VCT and weak divergence aloft over the southwest
counties will likely continue this morning perhaps favoring the sw
counties before rain chances rotate away into the central and
eastern counties this afternoon. PW across the area has diminished
slightly from yesterday but still expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms with heating today. Convective temp of 88 should be
easily reachable today and wind profile should keep storms moving
around 10-15 knots. CAPE of 2200-2700 with LI -6 will probably see
gusty winds and heavy downpours but shouldn`t be a flood issue.
Will carry 30-50 pops inland with the greater rain chances mainly
along and east of I-45. Upper ridging will be building into the
region from the east tonight through Wednesday which should lead
to drying of the column and lower the rain chances while afternoon
temperatures more broadly reach the lower to mid 90s inland.
Though widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Tue-Wed the coverage should be lower. Swath of
deeper moisture will spread west across the Gulf and should arrive
on Thursday with a weak disturbance rippling along underneath the
upper ridge over the SE US. This increase in moisture and and lift
should give the area a good shot of widespread showers and
thunderstorms between Thursday afternoon and Friday evening.
Moisture will continue to flow into the area and across the Upper
TX coastal waters with scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday through Sunday as rain chances inland taper down next
weekend. ECMWF keep a couple of tropical/hybrid looking systems in
the offing but over the Atlantic with the Western Caribbean and
Gulf quiet.
45

MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and seas in the 2-4 ft
range are expected to continue through midweek. Isolated to
scattered showers across the waters this morning will transition
inland this afternoon, with overnight and morning shower and
thunderstorm coverage decreasing over the next few days as upper
ridging building overhead results in drier air across the western
Gulf. A more easterly fetch sets up across the coastal waters by
late week as surface high pressure noses into the northern Gulf,
possibly resulting in tides 1-1.5 ft above normal this weekend.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      90  75  92  74  92 /  40  20  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)              91  78  93  77  93 /  40  10  30   0  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  89  82  89 /  30  10  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Harris...Montgomery...
     San Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14



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