Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010249
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42
&&

.CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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