Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291756
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS CENTER
AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING FROM FOG AT KLBX AND KGLS...AND A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY /1715Z/ SHOWED THE FOG FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD ERODED/LIFTED...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS HAVING DEVELOPED WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 TO 12 KNOTS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

PRESENTLY... THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
/ROUGHLY NEAR A WACO TO TEXARKANA LINE AS OF 17Z/ AND WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS /KCLL...KUTS...KCXO/ BETWEEN 20-23Z. THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS CAN EXPECT FROPA AROUND 00Z... WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS SEEING THE FRONT SOMETIME BETWEEN 05-07Z. GIVEN THE
LATER TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THE COASTAL SITES...ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW DENSE FOG IS ABLE TO GET BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT END FOG POTENTIAL.
FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE MVFR VISIBILITIES BUT A DROP TO IFR IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM AND AM EXPECTING THE
FOG TO BURN OFF BY 10AM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUING TO PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR
TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST...AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM TO PRODUCE CLOUDS...AND THE CLOUDS RIDE UP AND OVER
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT ALIGNED IN A DFW TO SJT LINE. EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY 00Z FRIDAY (TONIGHT AT 6PM).

HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT TEMP
TRENDS. MANY TEMPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S...
EXCEPT FOR AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FOG. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED THE
DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL
COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 AM CST. DENSE FOG IS BLANKETING THE (NEAR)
COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...VISIBILITIES WILL PERIODICALLY
FALL TO A 1/2 MILE OR BELOW OVER THE NEXT 4 OR 5 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DIAL AS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS FALLS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PARTIAL
(MID TO HIGH LEVEL) CLOUDINESS WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AID IN DRIVING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS UP INTO THE AVERAGE
MIDDLE 70S. THE DRY BOUNDARY WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING...REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
AND TO THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PUSH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S UNDER
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE BAJA REGION WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ENHANCING THE LOCAL WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SATURDAY`S EASTERLY WINDS WILL ROTATE
ONSHORE BY LATE EVENING...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH JET
POSITIONING PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIFFULENCE
BY SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGHING FORMING OVER EASTERN TEXAS JUST AHEAD
OF A STRONG SUNDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOBES OF HIGHER
PVA MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN 5H TROF AXIS WILL INCREASE WEEKEND
POPS INTO THE HIGH OR LIKELY CATEGORY. AVERAGE TWO DAY QPF WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND A 1/4 OF AN INCH TO NEARLY 3/4 OF AN INCH
LOCALLY. RAIN BEHAVIOR OF MAINLY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN OVERNIGHT BREAK INTO SUNDAY...MORE
OF A MODERATE AREAWIDE RAIN EPISODE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING...THE
BACKING COLD AIR MASS WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY MONDAY THAT WILL
LIKELY NOT BREAK OUT OF THE 40S. THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE CHANCE MID WEEK POPS.
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PASSING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING WESTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE...AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE (ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY)...WILL HAVE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN LINGERING ON THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7. THE PERIOD ENDS MORE
WET...OVERCAST AND COOL AS DAYS ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S FROM MORNING
40S. 31

MARINE...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING MARINE FCST. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF
THE COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE...WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION FLAGS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO INTO THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND
FRONT. 47

AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG/LOW CIGS WILL START ERODING BETWEEN 15-17Z.
IN THE MEANTIME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP METRO
AREAS AND LOCATIONS CLOSER TO COAST. VFR THIS AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE MOVING INTO CLL, UTS, CXO TERMINALS 20-24Z AND TO NEAR THE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T DOUBT IF WE SEE SOME FOG
REDEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE COAST PRIOR TO FROPA. PROBABLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH LVL CIGS IN ITS WAKE. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  44  58  42  57 /   0  10  10  20  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  47  60  43  59 /   0  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  51  57  50  58 /   0  10  10  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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