Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222042
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
342 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered precip will taper off by early evening with the loss of
heating. Expect it to regenerate off/near the coast during the
late night and morning hours Fri...then expand inland during the
day. Similar diurnal scenario will persist Saturday and probably
again Sunday...albeit with probably slightly more coverage each
consecutive day as moisture levels increase.

Forecast from Sunday night into the middle of next week becomes
more problematic in regards to the overall pattern which would
impact local frontal timing (if any), temps & precip. Not going
dive into the specifics regarding different model
solutions/scenarios that far out as they`ll change again in the
next set of runs.

In general, rain chances will increase late in the weekend into
early next week as an upper trof & surface front nudge closer to
the region. When and where best coverage (and potentially heavier
amounts) occur will be dependent on positioning of the trigger and
focusing mechanisms described above.

Overall forecast confidence is low beyond Sunday. Grids mainly
consist of a blend weighted with a higher dose of the slower &
warmer ECMWF soln. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Lee cyclogenesis will allow SE winds to persist through Friday. The
low pressure system over Colorado will then move N-NE and drag a
cold front into North Texas on Sunday night. There is still some
uncertainty with regard to the frontal position on Monday. With the
upper flow parallel to the surface front, prefer to follow the lead
of the previous fcstr and lean toward a slower fropa for early next
week. A weak surface low is expected to develop over the SW Gulf and
surface winds will probably become E-NE in response to these
systems. Tide levels will probably become slightly elevated early
next week in response to the E-NE winds. Deeper moisture over the
Gulf and disturbances rotating around abroad upper low over western
Mexico will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
early next week.

FWIW, both the GFS and the GEM bring the front through on Monday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  92  76  91  75 /   0  40  10  40  20
Houston (IAH)              76  91  77  90  76 /  10  40  10  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  88  82  88  81 /  40  40  30  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$


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