Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1125 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.AVIATION...
Visible satellite imagery shows stratus deck slowly eroding and
pushing east. Drier air should allow for clear skies for most of
the night but high clouds may increase by morning. Winds should
decrease with high pressure over the area. Other than some gusty
winds this afternoon to around 20 knots, there should not be any
other aviation weather impacts the next 30 hours.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current forecast looks good. Per satellite loops...clouds seem to
be continuing to slowly move off the coast so far. No changes are
planned at this time. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 343 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

After yesterday`s tumultuous start, much quieter weather is
expected across Southeast Texas today. Breezy northwest winds in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front (which has now pushed well into
the central Gulf) will gradually diminish through the day as
surface high pressure builds into the region. Cloudy skies will
also clear through the day as the post-frontal inversion lifts and
weakens. However, early morning water vapor imagery shows a plume
of upper level moisture sitting just west of the region and expect
to see passing cirrus through the day as this upper moisture moves
east. Despite mostly sunny skies by this afternoon, ongoing
(albeit weakening) cold air advection will result in many
locations climbing only into the lower 60s today. This will make
today the first day in almost two weeks with below normal high
temperatures... the last occurrence of which happened on February
4 for both Houston and College Station.

With clear skies and light winds in place tonight, excellent
radiational cooling will allow overnight temperatures to fall into
the upper 30s to low 40s. Dry conditions are expected to persist
again on Thursday as shortwave ridging builds across the region
ahead of a shortwave trough approaching from Arizona, but high
temperatures will begin to moderate a bit back into the mid to
upper 60s as the surface high slides east of the region and
onshore flow resumes.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as the
aforementioned shortwave trough lifts across Texas, with best
chances concentrated south and east of the Highway 59 corridor
where deeper moisture (forecast precipitable water values greater
than one inch) reside. Shortwave ridging will again build across
the region behind the passage of this system, with warm air
advection allowing high temperatures to dramatically warm from the
low 70s on Friday back into the upper 70s to low 80s this weekend.

By the end of the weekend, a large upper level low is anticipated
to approach Texas from the Pacific and usher in an increasingly
wet period for the region. Deterministic medium range guidance
has begun slowing down the passage of this upper low, with
ensemble guidance supporting an even slower solution and have
begun delaying onset of highest rain chances for the region until
Monday and Tuesday. Guidance is also advertising nothing short of
incredible moisture return to the region in advance of this
system as precipitable water values approach 1.8-2 inches, which
are record values for Southeast Texas in February per SPC`s
Sounding Climatology Page. Increasing lift from this system and
potentially record levels of atmospheric moisture for this time of
year will mean Sunday night through Tuesday need to continue to
be monitored over the next several days for a potential heavy rain
threat to materialize for the region.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      61  38  66  48  72 /   0   0   0  10  20
Houston (IAH)              63  41  68  50  71 /   0   0   0  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            62  50  65  58  69 /   0   0   0  10  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
     following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for the following zones:
     Galveston Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...39



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