Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 191122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO
1.8-1.9 INCHES BY MID AFTN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR AREA TAF SITES BUT INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY
LIMIT COVERAGE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING ON IN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH HGX RADAR SHOWING A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN CURRENTLY IN
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND PULL NORTHWARDS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT 250 MB WEAK DIFFLUENCE WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NAM SOUNDINGS
ARE AGAIN HINTING AT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH PWATS APPROACHING
2.00" AND K INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S. GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES WITH PWATS AROUND 1.7" AND K
INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIFFLUENCE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN QUICKLY START TO COME TO AN END THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLY OVER THE LOUISIANA/ ARKANSAS
BORDER. PWATS ALSO BEGIN TO FALL TOWARDS 1.4" THIS WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO THE GFS.

THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 107-110 RANGE TODAY. IT
MIGHT BE SOMETIME BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO BE DROPPED AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES MUST FALL BELOW 105 DEGREES. 23

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING TO 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 43

CLIMATE...
WE ARE CURRENTLY HAVING ISSUES WITH THE TEMPERATURE SENSOR AT THE
GALVESTON (KGLS) ASOS. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION IS THE SAME AS IT IS AT HOOKS. WE WILL NOTIFY
TECHS IN THE MORNING. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      97  78  97  78  98 /  30  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              96  78  96  79  97 /  40  10  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  93 /  20  20  40  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43



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