Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 262055
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS ACROSS CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DOING ITS JOB AT SUPPRESSING CLOUD GROWTH/
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE BACKING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND REGULATING HEAT TO THE MEAN LOWER 90S...VARIOUS SITES WILL
TOUCH THE MIDDLE 90S BY 5 PM. THE GROUND IS DRYING OUT EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY AND THIS WILL BE SUBTLY NOTED ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
EXTREMES BEING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER RESIDENT AIR MASS...WITH LITTLE FORCING PROVIDED BY
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR THE SEA
BREEZE...WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW POPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS STILL MODELED TO UNDERGO CHANGE FORM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD. A GRADUALLY DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL
BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKE REGION WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...OR REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH LATE
JULY AND INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF AUGUST. A MID-WEEK SURFACE BOUNDARY...
MAINLY A COOLER AIR MASS/WIND SHIFT MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY FIRE CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA/RED RIVER VALLEY.
A LEADING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE LEES... AROUND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RETREATED WESTERN RIDGE...MAY SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY LATE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A REGIONAL
HIGH PWAT AIR MASS OF GT 2 INCHES WILL POOL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. ANY OUTFLOW/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
PROPOGATES FROM NORTHERN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ENTERING
WHAT NPW PROGS ARE FORECASTING TO BE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (HIGH MUCAPE/K INDEX/PW VALUES) FROM TUESDAY MORNING
ONWARD. THUS...MID TO LATE (AFTERNOON) RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
BE MODERATE TO HIGH...WITH RESULTING RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURES
(CLOSER TO 90F THAN 95F) UNDER MORE OVERCAST/RAIN/TS THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF JULY. 31

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  97  76  97  76 /  10  10  10  20  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  96  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  92  81  91  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43


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