Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160016
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014


.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH HOU AREA WITH A RAPID DRYING TREND NOTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WINDS VEER FROM NW TO N TONIGHT AND NE
IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. A FEW HOURS OF 8-12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 15
OR SO IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 15-18Z THEN WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RIDING UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SPREAD INTO THE PSX-HOU AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
MORE LIKELY EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE 4000-7000FT LAYER WITH
SOME CI AS WELL. 45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SCHEDULED TO BE OFF THE COAST SHORTLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED REGIONAL TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...POST FRONTAL READINGS IN THE
LOWER 70S. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL HAVE
OVERNIGHT INTERIOR VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S...COASTAL MID 50S. A SEASONABLE DAY TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH POSSIBLE CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...MID-DECEMBER
TEMPERATURE STANDARDS. THE MID-LEVELS WILL COOL TO AROUND 10 C THAT
TRANSLATES TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 60F FOR
MAXIMUMS...DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT BREEZES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AFFORDS SUNRISE MINIMUMS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

TOMORROW`S SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE STATE WILL TRAVEL INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FROM MID-WEEK ON...RETURN FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE MODEL SUITE HAS THE NEXT WESTERN
LONG WAVE TROUGH`S AXIS ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PLACE TEXAS IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN EPISODES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY THE TARGET DAY FOR THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE FRIDAY SO THE
AREA CAN EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL RAINFALL AND STORM COVERAGE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY WILL USHER IN A RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR MASS TO COOL THE WEEKEND DOWN. 85H TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE
LOW 40S...SLUGGISHLY WARMING ONLY INTO THE 50S BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A FRIENDLY REMINDER THAT THE MODELS DIDN`T DO VERY WELL
WITH THIS LATEST RAIN EVENT....OR LACK THEREOF. THUS IT MAY
BEHOOVE FOLKS THAT HAVE LATE WEEK PLANS TO REGULARLY CHECK BACK
OVER THE COMING DAYS TO MONITOR THE RUN-TO-RUN MODELING OF THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LATEST STORM SYSTEM. 31

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
MARINERS IN SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUES MORNING IF VENTURING OFFSHORE. TIDE LEVELS WILL ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
APPROACH SE TX ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  60  43  57  53 /   0   0  10  30  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              46  64  44  61  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            54  62  51  64  59 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45


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