Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151453
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
953 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS
MORNING. NORTH WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...SUSTAINED 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AS 2K FT
WINDS MIX DOWN OVER THOSE RELATIVELY WARMER SHELF WATERS. AREAWIDE
NORTHERLIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHERN TEXAS SURFACE
RIDGING EXPANDS NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND WASHES OUT
THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUNNY SKIES WILL HAVE THIS UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY MORNING (15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) GRADUALLY WARMING
INTO THE `COOL`-ISH AVERAGE LOWER 60S (COMPARED TO THE UPPER 70
MID-APRIL STANDARD). A RESIDENT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BELOW 30% WHEN AFTERNOON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 60 F. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY TO DIP TO NEAR RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST HAS GALVESTON
TYING THEIR RECORD LOW OF 51 (1928) WITH CLL AND IAH FALLING TO
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF THEIR RECORDS OF 36 F (1961) AND 38
F (1983)...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
SKC TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS INLAND AND DIMINISHING TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS AT THE COAST. SKC TONIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 2 TO 4 KNOTS INLAND AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AT THE COAST. VFR TOMORROW WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND COULD SEE FEW/SCT CLOUDS (AROUND 4000-5000 FEET)
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A WINDY NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE AT GLS AND
OFFSHORE. FURTHER INLAND...WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND HAVE BECOME
LIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WILL SEE THE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

A SUNNY AND COOL DAY IS ON TAP TODAY BEHIND THE SIGNIFICANT CF
THAT PASSED THROUGH ON MONDAY. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS FALL TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND NEAR 50 ON THE COAST TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. THINK OUR NE ZONES WILL STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING EARLY
WED MORNING. AM FORECASTING MIN TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS
INLAND...AND JUST BELOW THE RECORD AT GLS FOR THE 16TH WHICH IS
51.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SHRT WV
TROF APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS AS
THIS FEATURE PROVIDES SOME LIFT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING
SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROF THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC POPS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE SOLNS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 33

&&

MARINE...
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY...AND ELEVATED SPEEDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  39  71  53  72 /   0   0   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  40  71  55  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  51  68  60  72 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43



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