Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 140301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
957 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Only adjustment this evening was to expand the area of more dense
fog further east from the western forecast area. Fog beginning to
develop over the southwestern CWA this evening with many western
locations T/Td depressions falling to under 5 degrees with mainly
clear skies and light breezes. reason to think that
tomorrow morning will be any different than this morning in the
fog department so leaning towards analog in the evening update.
Morning Tmins in the lower 70s/upper 70s (coast) with afternoon
Tmaxs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s once again under similar
humidity. 31


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

Satellite and obs show that the day`s scattered clouds are
beginning to clear out, and winds are calming. This should
continue, and like last night, the development of fog can be
expected. Guidance indicates that the densest fog will be west of
most of the TAF sites, and the current forecast is a blend of
persistence and the guidance. There is some potential that
visibilities and/or ceilings may drop farther than in the current
TAF. 25


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

It`s another unseasonably warm mid-October afternoon across Southeast
Texas with 2 PM temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s under mainly
light south to southeast winds and not a whole lot of cloud cover.
Galveston`s high temperature so far today (89 degrees) is close to
the record high for the date (90 degrees set in 2015), and in the first
twelve days of the month this location has tied or broken six records
(four daytime high temperatures and two high minimum temperatures).
October heat across Southeast Texas will continue until a cold front
moves through the area during the day on Sunday and off the coast
Sunday evening. Over the weekend before the front`s arrival, we`ll
be dealing with late night through early morning fog development
(some possible dense requiring Dense Fog Advisories), especially along
and to the west of Interstate 45. After the fog lifts Saturday morning,
afternoon high temperatures will heat up again into the upper 80s to
lower 90s as mid/upper level ridging holds. Moisture levels will begin
to rise, and we might see some mainly afternoon shower/thunderstorm
development in/around our southwest counties and adjacent Gulf waters.
We`ll see another shot of late night through early morning fog Saturday
night through Sunday morning, and temperatures ahead of the front
(especially central and south areas) will once again get very warm.
Shower and/or thunderstorm development is possible along and ahead of
the front as it works its way through the area during the day on Sunday.
Some models are hinting at possible lingering rain Sunday night as
the lagging 850 mb front finally moves on through. It will be turning
noticeably breezy and cooler after the front moves through with the
cooler temperatures across the area through at least the first half
of the week. Gradually increasing east winds toward the middle to end
of the week will help to increase moisture across the area resulting
in a gradual warming trend and increasing rain chances. For now, have
continued to keep the rain chances on the low side, but models are
showing a general upward trend on the POPs, and we might end up seeing
our forecasted rain chances rise in our updates over the weekend and
early next week.  42

Light southeasterly winds are expected to become easterly on Saturday
adn Saturday evening. As a cold front approaches from the north, the
winds will swing around to the northeast on Sunday. Expect the front
off of the coast Sunday evening with an increase in north wind
speeds expected following the frontal passage. Will probably see
small craft advisory conditions developing during the mid and late
evening period across most locations. These should diminish
throughout the day on Monday and Monday night. 40


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

Expecting VFR conditions at the inland sites this afternoon. Hazy
conditions could lower that to MVFR at KGLS for part of the
afternoon. For tonight, another episode of MVFR or lower
conditions are possible. The SREF probabilities indicate the same
locations should lower as did earlier this morning. Confidence is
high enough to lower conditions all the way to IFR or LIFR these
conditions are possible between 11Z and 14Z for most inland sites
outside of KIAH and KHOU. As occurred today, any MVFR or lower
conditions that do occur should lift by around 15Z on Saturday

For long range planning, a cold front will move through SE Texas
on Sunday and will probably reach the coast during the early
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of the front. Also, lower ceilings or visibility due to fog
will be possible Saturday night through sunrise Sunday. 40


College Station (CLL)      71  91  70  81  56 /   0  10  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              73  90  71  87  62 /  10  10  10  30  20
Galveston (GLS)            79  88  78  85  69 /  10  10  10  30  20




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