Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 071620
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1000 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
AROUND 60 BUT THE AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY AND TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL THE CURRENT TEMP FCST IS ON TRACK. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE 12Z GFS HAS DEW PTS ON MONDAY FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTN. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...TEMPERATURES COOLING
TO THEIR RESPECTIVE DEW POINTS UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS HAS
ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER SOME HUBS. PRIMARILY MVFR BR...
IMPROVING BY 14-15Z WITH A BREEZE WAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TIMED TO BE THROUGH CLL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY...TO THE COAST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE TX. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW SPOTS OF FREEZING
FOG NEAR CONROE TO CLEVELAND AREAS. FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY TO 2
TO 5 MILES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE S/SW TODAY SO FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
MIXING OCCURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS
TEXAS NOW MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO ORGANIZE
OVER THE N PLAINS. SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK BUT NOT BEGIN TO IMPACT TEXAS
UNTIL THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. OVERALL N/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD REACH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SFC DEW POINTS COULD BECOME AS LOW AS UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S PER
LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. IF MIXING IS STRONGER THEN DEW POINTS
COULD BECOME LOWER. ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS. FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG WITH THE FRONT SO MAX TEMPS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY. COLD/DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY AS WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NW BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. THIS MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING MID WEEK
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PER GFS WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB MAY
NOT BE QUITE A STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WITH TEMPS MAYBE ONLY
REACHING 8C AS OPPOSED TO 10-12C PREVIOUSLY FOR WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
STILL HAS 850MB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE 10-12C RANGE. 850MB FLOW
TURNS MORE W/SW ON THURSDAY AND STILL SUPPORT 850MB TEMPS OF
10-12C. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO THE 70S THAN THE 60S WHICH
THE GFS SUGGESTS. TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUE TO LOOK
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 39

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN OFFSHORE AND NO SCEC NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE OUT INTO THE
GULF AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE
COAST MONDAY MORNING AROUND 6-8 AM AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8
FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE FAR COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
AFTER SUNRISE AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT (NOT AS STRONG) MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND MAY NEED A SHORT LIVED SCEC. 45

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY TO VERY DRY BEHIND MONDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EXPECT RH VALUES OF 18-22
PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH NW WINDS OF 15 MPH WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE WELL CURED FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION BE THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THESE INGREDIENTS
OF AVAILABLE FUEL/STRONG WINDS/LOW RH COME TOGETHER IN NEARLY TWO
YEARS. LAST TIME WE HAD A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER ANY PART OF THE
CWA WAS MAY 4 2014. ALSO HAVE CONCERNS IN THAT SOME OF THE MODELS
RAISE DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY AND THIS DOESN`T
SEEM REALISTIC GIVE THE INCREDIBLY DRY AIR THAT WILL START OUT
OVER THE REGION...RH MAY GO LOWER VIA EITHER LOWER DEW POINTS OR
WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEW POINTS MAY
MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS BUT HAVE NOT GONE THAT LOW YET.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY AS DRY OR DRIER BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  35  57  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  40  59  36  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  46  58  42  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43


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