Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 162113
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS WARMING INTO
THE SEASONABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER A LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS
THE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY...TRAVELS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WINDS WILL
VEER MORE EASTERLY TO EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL AID IN DRAWING UP MORE MOISTURE RICH AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER THAN 50% LOW TO MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BEING PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND NAM TO ADVANCE UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT REGULATES
WESTERN CWA MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINS TO THE MID
40S WITH SLOW-ADVANCING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ALLOWING THESE SITES
TO FALL BELOW 40F. HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND WENT WITH THE AVERAGE
LOWER 40S OUT WEST...MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR...CLEARER
SKIES OVER THE LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL AFFORD THE UPPER 30S.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETS UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THAT
WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING
OVERCAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EITHER DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ZONES AND
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
THIS WILL CLOSE THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS...LOWERING CLOUDS BASES AND INTRODUCING FOG WITHIN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A MURKY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PRECURSOR
TO AN OVERCAST DAY WITH HIGH PROBS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER THE CWA.
EASTERN TEXAS MIGHT ALSO FALL UNDER THE RR QUAD OF A PRONOUNCED
JET JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FRIDAY.

THIS FEATURE BEING A WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER
THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...INCREASING AREAWIDE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH OR CLOSED OFF LOW THAT WOULD
MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY...QPF RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF OF AN
INCH AROUND THE COAST TO SLIGHTLY OVER TWO INCHES OVER OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALL DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND/OR APPENDANT SURFACE TROF/LOW ON WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN
FALLS...BUT NWP PROGS AND WPC DO PLACE THE HIGHEST DAY 3 RAINFALL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGGRESSIVE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY WILL WHISK ALL CONVECTION EAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THE BACKING SURFACE HIGH WILL ELONGATE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT NE-E
FLOW THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THE CHRISTMAS DAY OUTLOOK HAS
LOWERING WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW...LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
31

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND GENTLY VEER TO THE NE AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND
SCOOTS UP THE COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      43  54  52  65  57 /   0  40  50  30  80
HOUSTON (IAH)              44  59  55  70  60 /   0  20  50  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            53  62  61  69  63 /   0  20  40  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43



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