Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 172057
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD
ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT THINK NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE MUCH ACTIVITY. THERE IS PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT IN/AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA WHERE MODELS BRING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AN INCH. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20% OR
LESS THERE FOR NOW DOWN THERE AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
IF NEEDED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME KIND OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE ON TUESDAY OR
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ANTICIPATING LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION.
MAY SEE A BRIEF BAY BREEZE FOR IAH THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HI RES
MODELS STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT FAR INLAND SO TEMPO WINDS MAY BE
BRIEF. WITH MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECT POTENTIAL
FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NRN GULF. WINDS STILL FORE-
CAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE BAYS/COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE NE. THE
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK (WITH SEAS
ALSO BUILDING) IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE WSWRN
GULF/NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WE COULD SEE CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER ELEVAT-
ED TIDES COULD BE AN ISSUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK IF WE
GET THE EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW. INITIAL ESTIMATES GOING WITH TIDES
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  62  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  83  69  81  70 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...38



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