Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 160230
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
830 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Fog not an issue this evening with better lower level mixing
(30-35 knot just-off-the-deck winds)...shallow shelf water
temperatures having warmed into the lower 60s may be tonight`s
dense maritime fog inhibitor. The focus shifts from fog to
precipitation as there have been a few thunderstorm cells that
have exhibited weak rotation as they have moved northward over the
northwestern-northern CWA tonight. Vicious looking QLCS moving
into EWX`s western forecast area...with a right moving supercell
rotating through Bandera County west of San Anton. Per the higher
resolution modeling...this squall line is forecast to break apart
as it moves east of I-35. The northeast ejection of the western
Texas upper low into OK-KS tomorrow morning suggests that the bulk
of the highest shear/energy should stay well to the north...with
the stretching flow becoming more parallel to the boundary slowing
the associated mid-surface boundary as it approaches SE TX tomorrow
night. With a slightly higher surge of Gulf moisture moving inland
and warmer mid layers providing interior skinny CAPE values (600-800
J/kg)...scattered thunderstorms mixed in with southern-moving-northerly
rain clusters through Monday are not out of the question. There is
enough turning of the lower few thousand layer winds to promote a
weak tornado threat (early day 150-200 SRH northern values). Mainly
overcast and precipitation should regulate Monday`s diurnal temperatures
to a near 5 to 10 degree minimum-maximum temperature differential.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

AVIATION...
Cigs will transition down into mvfr territory later this evening
and should be slower to fall down to ifr compared to previous
nights as winds remain up. Shortwave seen in w Tx will trek ne
tonight and expect large scale lift to increase in advance.
Looking for some sct showers, and possibly an iso tstm, to
approach nw parts of se tx after 9z (3am) and stretch across the
UTS/CLL areas into mid morning. Will likely see a break and
lifting cigs from mvfr to vfr in the mid morning-early afternoon
hours. Daytime heating and the lingering boundary will probably
focus some additional afternoon precip (mainly north of a
Columbus-Livingston line). 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  73  56  61  53 /  70  80  60  50  50
Houston (IAH)              66  77  63  69  58 /  40  50  60  50  50
Galveston (GLS)            65  70  63  69  61 /  20  30  60  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Monday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47


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