Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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333
FXUS64 KHGX 032132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Note to users of HGX radar: Rainfall estimates are running 15-40%
too LOW so use w/ .

Tonight through Monday...
Swath of significant rainfall along the coast today with 3-11"
fallen thru 3pm. Frontal boundary has sagged back offshore, but
just a gradual slope behind it is still allowing some training
heavy rain which will probably continue at the coast this evening.
The next disturbance will move in from the w/sw overnight
spreading another batch of precip across the area and into the
day Sunday.

Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch that`s out across the CWA.
That being said, vast majority of folks will see just stratiform
light/moderate rain. Totals will gradually add up thru the weekend
and once grounds become saturated enough...any heavier downpours
will runoff to cause flooding. Highest concern for the next 12-24
hours is Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers and SE Liberty where we`re
already at and above the point of ground saturation. To complicate
things there, higher water/tide levels won`t allow for efficient
drainage.

Upper trough kicks out of Mexico and across Texas Sun night-Mon
night. Coastal trof & gradient tightens back up near the coast,
and depending on eventual details, may produce a somewhat similar
scenario as we saw last night & this morning. Improving
conditions anticipated beginning Mon night. 47

Tuesday through Saturday night...
Tuesday should be pretty dry and sunny, but rain chances return
to the forecast Wednesday ahead of a cold front that should pass
through SE Texas overnight Wednesday night. Temps will cool off
significantly behind the front with highs on Thursday only
forecast in the 40s and 50s. The northern counties may experience
their first freeze so far this season on Friday morning, and these
freezing temperatures may extend southward into the Houston metro
area. Dry conditions and slowly rebounding temps are expected
through the rest of the period. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms continued to occur over
most of the nearshore Gulf waters and Galveston Bay at mid
afternoon. The rain was occurring along a warm frontal boundary that
was nearly stationary just off the immediate coast. Isolated
stronger storms with wind gusts and waterspouts will continue to be
possible into this evening east of the warm frontal boundary.
Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue through
Sunday night into Monday and end late Monday as the storm system
moves east of the area.

Tidal flooding will continue to be a threat along low-lying areas
at the coast through tonight. Problems may persist into Sunday and
Monday.

Other impacts expected are advisory conditions due to winds and seas
over the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient weakens slightly tonight
and may lead to diminishing winds; however, seas will probably stay
up at least over the offshore waters tonight. Winds may pick back up
later Sunday into Monday. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      48  54  48  56  45 /  90  80  80  80  10
Houston (IAH)              53  57  50  59  48 /  90  90  80  90  10
Galveston (GLS)            59  62  57  64  56 /  90  90  90  90  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Harris.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$



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