Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 222335
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
535 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS TO ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR COASTAL
AREAS THIS EVENING WHERE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
GALVESTON WEBCAMS SHOW A LOW STRATUS DECK/FOG BANK SITTING JUST
OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS BACKING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPANDED FOG MENTION TO
INLAND AREAS AS THIS OCCURS...WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST COURTESY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A LOT MORE SUN ACROSS SE TX TODAY THAN THERE HAS BEEN THESE
LAST FEW DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. NOT TOO
MANY CHANGES WITH THE FCST AS MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
WE ARE SEEING HINTS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROF DURING THE OVERNIGHT/
VERY EARLY TUES MORNING HRS WILL HELP TO SHIFT WINDS/LIMIT MOIST-
URE FOR WHEN THE OFFICIAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NOT TOO COMFORTABLE
WITH LOWERING POPS TOO MUCH ATTM...GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF SO WILL KEEP WITH THE MOSTLY CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE
GRIDS FOR FROPA.

NICE COOL DOWN PROGGED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT BY TUES NIGHT AS
THE AIRMASS BUILDS DOWN OFF THE NRN PLAINS. COOL/DRY WX WEDS WITH
LIGHT/MOD CAA WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING TEMPS/RETURN OF ONSHORE BY
THURS (CHRISTMAS DAY) AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EX-
TENDED MODELS KEEPING WITH THE STEADY PARADE OF FAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROFS ACROSS THE U.S. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK (ON
INTO NEXT WEEK). THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
FOR SE TX DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (ONE FRI THEN ANOTHER NEXT TUES).
ALL IN ALL A FAIRLY TYPICAL EL NINO PATTERN FOR US. 41

MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 15 TO 17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER THEY SHOULD SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 KNOTS BY 23Z. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
CONTINUE SCEC AS WINDS SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.

A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND NOON TOMORROW...AND
BE COMPLETELY OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST TO NEAR GALE
FORCE AND SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET.  THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SETTLE DOWN GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF.   44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  57  37  53  35 /  20  40  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  61  40  54  36 /  20  40  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  65  45  54  44 /  10  30  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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