Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 172027
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
327 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
We can`t put this heat wave behind us quick enough with
temperatures this afternoon across the entire South Plains,
southern Panhandle and Rolling Plains well above 100F with
several locations including Lubbock flirting with 111 and still a
couple more hours until outgoing longwave radiation surpasses
incoming solar radiation and temperatures stop rising. Will
obviously allow Heat Warning and Advisory continue through 8 pm
this evening.

Looking upstream, tomorrow`s welcome front is now into northeast
Colorado and northern Kansas with temperatures in the mid 80s
behind it. Based on 850 mb temperature and thickness values we
should manage a drop in afternoon highs of a good 20+ degrees on
Sunday behind the front. The GFS MOS is right in the middle of the
much cooler NAM and warmer ECMWF so will settle on those numbers,
generally in the mid 80s with a few 90s in our border counties to
the east and south. Winds will also be gusty with the front as it
enters the area overnight and passes through by late morning.
Speeds could exceed 35 mph for a while but this expected to be
brief enough to preclude an advisory at this time. The strongest
winds appear to slide down the western third of the CWA associated
with the greatest pressure rises.

As is currently seen on satellite also expect a band of low to
mid level clouds to accompany the boundary though forcing nor
moisture depth will be sufficient to generate any showers.

Surface ridging is reinforced across the Plains on Monday as
another shortwave drops through the Prairie Provinces of Canada
into an amplifying trough over the Great Lakes. This should allow
for one more day of below normal temperatures before the mercury
soars once again by mid week. Moisture pooling behind the stalled
front may bring some low clouds in the morning and delay the warm
up some.

Unfortunately thickness values are forecast to rise back to 592
decameters by Thursday and continue into Friday as the western
U.S. ridge center builds further. This will push daytime highs
back above the century mark. Medium range models do favor an
erosion the eastern side of the Ridge or retrograde westward with
time as more northern stream energy attempts to dig into the
northern Plains. There is also the matter of a tropical
disturbance which could make its way near the Texas coast.
Influence from both of these would be minor with slightly higher
moisture values sneaking along the higher terrain and if the
ridge weakens enough they could spark some storms. Way to early
to get our hopes up but that at least gives us something positive
to focus on other than tomorrows front.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ027-
028-033-034-039-040.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-029-030-
035-036-041-042.

&&

$$

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