806
FXUS64 KLUB 061731
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

 - Tonight...A near repeat from yesterday...warm and dry for most
   of the area with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
   NW extreme southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains.

 - Storm chances continue both Monday and Tuesday evenings, with
   drier and warmer weather expected Wednesday through Friday.

 - Isolated storms may return next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025


This afternoon the FA finds itself sandwiched between a 594dm mid-
level high parked over the Desert Southwest and another H500 high
parked over the Gulf Coast with corresponding high pressure systems
at the surface resulting in NW flow aloft and SE flow at the
surface.

Now that the morning low clouds have eroded and mid level moisture
is streaming northwestward at the surface and southeastward aloft
afternoon destabilization due to heating seems likely. Much like
yesterday, mean SBCAPE values from the HREF will near 1000 J/kg with
PWATs near 1.5". Initiation will also be similar to yesterday and
begin in the higher terrain of eastern NM then move SE into CWA
around 00Z. Strong outflow winds and brief heavy rain are expected
with these cells. Storm total QPFs will once again be between a
trace and 0.25 inches with higher amounts where ever stronger storms
develop. Main fly in the ointment today versus yesterday is the lack
of "high" bulk shear values. Thus, activity might not be as
widespread as yesterday, but nonetheless SPC has included much of
the CWA in a marginal (1 out of 4) risk for this afternoon and
evening.

Tonight`s low temperatures will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s
area wide with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday thunderstorm chances will remain low, primarily favoring the
higher elevations of eastern NM once again and moving SE into the NW
Southern Texas Panhandle during the latter part of the
afternoon/evening thanks to the continued moderately moist and
unstable airmass in place. Strong solar insolation under mostly
sunny skies will aid in temperatures climbing towards to 90F mark
across the entire area both today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The upper high which is currently building into New Mexico and
Arizona had been forecast to build into the 4-Corners region and
possibly park there for an extended period of time.  Latest models
show the high a little weaker and also sliding west by this coming
weekend to a position more over Arizona and southern California. The
position is important to our area because our upper winds could
become more northwesterly increasing the chances of afternoon to
overnight storms.

For the extended part of the forecast we continue to have a chance
of thunderstorms through Tuesday night as north to northwest flow
aloft brings in pockets of mid and upper level moisture.  That
moisture originates from afternoon thunderstorms forming in the
higher terrains of New Mexico and Colorado.

By Wednesday our upper winds should be more northeasterly and
thus drier, allowing slightly warmer surface temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s as well. As next weekend approaches, if the
upper high retrogrades to the west as the latest model runs show,
a slight chance of storms comes back into the forecast. Lipe


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Morning IFR/MVFR conditions have eroded with VFR firmly
in place. TSRA is once again possible across our western counties,
however it is unlikely that any storms will impact the terminals.
Tus, have not included any mention of storms in the TAFs. Winds
between 05-10 kts from the E are expected with stronger gusts
possible near any storm that develops.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...28