National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLUB 051247 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT /RAIN/ SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN EXPECTED...WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ACCORDING TO WTXM STATIONS IN DEAF
SMITH...PARMER AND CASTRO COUNTIES...AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS
FARTHER NORTH SHOWN AT CLAYTON AND DALHART. WE DON/T EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH OR SO OF RAIN FROM THESE SHOWERS BUT ADDED A
MENTION TO THE FCST AND UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THE FASTER FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH FROPA
LIKELY BETWEEN 13 AND 14 UTC AT KLBB AND ABOUT 15 UTC AT KCDS.
SOME BLDU IS LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FROPA IN THE
VICINITY OF KLBB BEFORE THE WIND GRADUALLY SUBSIDES IN THE
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR AT KCDS AND THERE IS ABOUT
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF -RA AND ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RA/SN
MIX...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND SKIES WILL CLEAR...LEADING TO SOME FOG
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY AT KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY. CURRENTLY...NOT MUCH PRECIP ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF A BAND MOVING SWD ALONG THE COLO FRONT RANGE.
ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RACING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
AT 3 AM...IT HAD JUST MOVED THROUGH DALHART. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
ABOUT 25 TO 35 MPH WERE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONGER
GUSTS. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR NW COUNTIES AROUND
DAYBREAK/13 UTC AND PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE NOON. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS AROUND
MID-MORNING...WHERE THE STRONGEST PUSH IS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE WIND MAY REMAIN JUST SHY OF THIS...BUT WE WILL WATCH THE
UPSTREAM SITES CLOSELY. WE ALSO HAVE A PATCHY BLOWING DUST MENTION
IN ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK...AS THESE WINDS SHOULD BE OF
SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DURATION TO LOFT THE FINE LLANO ESTACADO SOIL.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...IT APPEARS THAT COUPLED LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS FROM THE ERN PANHANDLES SWD INTO THE NRN ROLLING
PLAINS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. FCST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS OUR NE...AS SFC WET BULB TEMPS COULD BE NEAR
32F. IN ANY CASE...PRECIP SHOULD BE SHOWERY AND LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON TRAVEL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WE COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT PRECIP FROM
THESE MIGHT ONLY AMOUNT TO A TRACE. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY
GIVEN THE FRONT AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. THE NORTH WIND WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIE OFF SWIFTLY AT SUNSET.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR
EARLY MARCH WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

LONG TERM...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP BOTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. DEEP MIXING WILL NOT PROMOTE MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN WINDS WITH WEAK WIND SPEEDS ALOFT. EXTENSIVE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY INHIBIT AN OTHERWISE
DEEP MIXING DAY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WINDIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY RATHER THAN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAKER DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE TENDS TO
AGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM REMAINS TROUBLESOME. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY MOVE THROUGH EITHER EARLY SATURDAY
OR EVEN FRIDAY EVENING AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SUGGESTING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ON SATURDAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH MAY BE TOO FAR WEST TO PROVIDE MUCH PRECIPITATION TO
WEST TEXAS. THE GFSE PROVIDES A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT
WITH LITTLE SPREAD AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR POSSIBLE UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES DUE TO VERY DRY SURFACE AIR. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ON SATURDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF SOME
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS LIFT LOOKS TO COME BEFORE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDING MORE
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THIS SYSTEM KICKS OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO. AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES KICKING THE SYSTEM EAST BUT
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS PACIFIC ENERGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  25  69  38  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  26  68  37  73 /  20   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  25  69  38  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  25  69  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  69  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  25  69  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  26  69  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  27  62  39  76 /  20   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  29  67  39  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  30  64  41  76 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33