Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 172041
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
341 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low is situated over the Great Basin this afternoon with
a nearly zonal pattern flow regime across West Texas.  The low is
expected to slowly move southeast tomorrow settling over the San
Juan Mountains of Colorado by evening time as flow backs
southwesterly here in our part of the state.  Into Friday, the low
will then change course and likely end up toward western Nebraska
all the while maintaining SW flow here with some minor embedded
disturbances.  Still, this time of year, it does not take much to
initiate and sustain active weather.  As the low continues to lift
into the weekend, our flow will become WNWRLY.  A respectable trough
approaches on Tuesday of next week with a general tendency toward NW
flow for the remainder of the extended.

On to sensible weather...wind speeds will diminish this evening
though low level moist advection should manage to get some stratus
into the region during the morning before the dryline sweeps
eastward.  The favored area for thunderstorms will largely be
confined to our east though we may see a few storms in our eastern
column during the afternoon. There stands a risk, given the
proximity of the Colorado low, that storms may fire overnight on
the retreating dryline. This would generally be confined to the
Rolling Plains though some development is not out of the question
across adjacent portions of the South Plains. For Friday
afternoon, the dryline will slosh eastward once again favoring the
Rolling Plains once again for storms. We then see a cold front
Friday evening shunting the most favorable location for storms to
our south. How things pan out into early next week in NWP raises
some question about how much moisture can advect back into West
Texas as northwest flow becomes established--thus questions about
how much of a shot for more storms we`ll see. It is May in West
Texas so any storms which fire will have the potential to become
severe.



&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/26



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