Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121939

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
239 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

An elongated upper ridge will be centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft across our region to
close out the week. A modest moisture plume already was lifting
northward through northern Mexico and is expected to concentrate
within a narrower band initially across New Mexico and our far
western zones and Panhandle late Friday, still edging across our
area Saturday and early Sunday, as a sharp upper trough translates
through the northern Rockies. Low level convergence and lift seem
very questionable in advance of the sharp cold front that will
swing south through the area late Saturday evening and early
Sunday morning. So minimal thunder chances only late Friday. By
late Saturday, solutions indicate improving convergence within a
surface trough over the area - valid for increasing thunder
mention, though better chances still are favored over southern and
eastern zones with frontal passage. Cold air will surge southward
elevating convective cells, but it appears convective energy may
support stronger cells, perhaps capable of hail and driving wind.
Post frontal winds already appear on the order of 25-30 knots for
a brief period, so added convective component could generate
marginally severe wind gusts in addition to at least some hail

Storm chances will end for the most part by daybreak Sunday, but
there is still a bit of uncertainty regarding potential for
trailing activity. We have retained a low thunder mention in our
southeast corner Sunday morning, which also merges better with our
neighbors grids. Drier and much cooler air will dominate Sunday
with solutions another notch cooler. Gusty northerly winds will
taper during the evening and a brisk night will follow - lowered
minimums early Monday to the mid 30s in the northwest which is in
line with lows that followed the most recent frontal passage. May
yet need to drop these lows another notch.

Dry northwest flow aloft will follow late weekend into early next
week before a flattening upper level high pressure ridge edges in
from the southwest. We will favor warmer and drier especially
Tuesday and beyond with increasing southwest flow - upper trough
will gradually redevelop in the western U.S. with a series of
waves skirting by to the north. May see stronger waves approach
late week or early next weekend, but flow still appears mainly dry
our area. Gusty winds should be expected late in the forecast but
too early for specifics as solutions not convergent enough.




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