Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231817
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A SNOW BAND CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND BRUSHING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AT MIDDAY IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
IMPULSE PASSING OVER THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLOW WEAKENING OF
THIS BAND IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. NOT NECESSARILY A CLEAN BREAK IN
LIFT AND PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS MORE SHOWERY LOOKING ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO GENERATE OVER WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHILE VERY SHALLOW
BANDING SLOWLY WANES. ANYWAY...WE THINK WE WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BUT LIKELIHOOD OF
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT TOTALS IS DECREASING. WE HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY SLOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LIGHT SNOW SLOWLY TAPERS OFF
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS LIFT JUST A BIT. SOLUTIONS
AGREE...HOWEVER...THAT A LOWER CEILING IS LIKELY TO REFORM DURING
THE EVENING AT TAF SITES. A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION REMAINS WITHIN
REALM OF POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT MAINLY KPVW AND KLBB BUT STILL
CANNOT NAIL DOWN A MORE FAVORED TIME-FRAME. SO...GENERALLY
FAVORING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. THE
SNOW COULD ALSO MIX WITH SLEET...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND
KCDS...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY COULD DIP
INTO IFR TERRITORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
.WINTRY WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN BY THIS AFTERNOON...

COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AS OF 09Z. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WAS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...IT DID FALL IN THE FORM OF FZDZ...SLEET AND EVEN A
LITTLE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING...THIS HAS CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE SEEN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
STRENGTHEN RECENTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE...AND THIS
HAS HELPED SPUR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
CALL TO DICKENS REVEALED PRIMARILY SLEET FALLING IN ONE PASSING
SHOWER...WITH -FZDZ COMMON OUTSIDE THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
WE HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS...SO BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF FROZEN PRECIP ARE LIKELY. WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WANES LOCALLY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD AND COULD
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NW/NC ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LIFT/PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NWP SIGNALS ARE MIXED...WITH THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY WILL FADE AND/OR SHIFT
NORTH THE CWA BY AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THIS...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
IF A PORTION OF IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IN TIME.

REGARDING P-TYPE...THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS AND
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY MODE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE CENTERED
NEAR 700 MB IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ABOVE A DEEP AND COLD AIR MASS NEAR/AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD MAKE SLEET THE PRIMARY MODE...THOUGH IN
THE STRONGEST LIFT A SWITCH TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WHERE LIFT IS WEAK...FZDZ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE THE SATURATED
PORTION OF THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ICE
/GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK/. REGARDING AMOUNTS...SLEET
TOTALS COULD APPROACH 1/2 INCH WHERE THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS
FALL OUT EAST...AND THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD GET A QUICK INCH OF
SNOW...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN SPOTS IF AN ORGANIZED BAND DOES
SETUP. IN BETWEEN...OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY
LIGHT...BUT THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT SERIOUS TRAVEL
IMPACTS. EVEN AFTER THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WANES THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD...WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
THUS...ROADWAYS /ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ONES/ WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HAZARDOUS. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE BACK INTO THE TEENS...WITH ROADS NOT EXPECTED TO THAW OUT
UNTIL TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD START OUT TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THIS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS REGION WILL SWING ACROSS WTX LATE IN THE
DAY...COINCIDING WITH ANOTHER SWD PUSH OF COOL AIR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A QUICK SHOT OF LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH
MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE UPPER LOW PASSES QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA.

MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY...TRENDING A BIT FASTER IN THE LATEST
RUNS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NATIONS/S MIDSECTION...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A MINOR
RIPPLE WHILE THE GFS SHOWS GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND LIFT. BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GIVE US LOW POPS ON THURSDAY...AROUND 20 TO
30 PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT MUDDLED AS WELL. DURING THIS PERIOD A LARGE TROUGH SHOULD
DIG SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF RETAINS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
OVER WTX AS A LEADING TROUGH CROSSES THE SRN ROCKIES. THE GFS IS
QUICKER TO TURN THE FLOW ALOFT FROM NWLY TO SWLY. IN EITHER
CASE...WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT QPF WRUNG OUT WHILE THE LOW-LVL
COLD AIR IS IN PLACE. BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS A CHANCE OF PRECIP
GOING MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THIS IS ACCEPTED FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...FORECAST TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP/HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL BE A
CONCERN. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S...AND MAYBE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH. WE
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THE COLD AIR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS. AS THE UPPER LOW EDGES
CLOSER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK PRECIP CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        16  40  22  55 /  10  10  20  10
TULIA         16  40  23  55 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     18  41  25  57 /  10   0  20  10
LEVELLAND     18  43  28  60 /  10   0  20  10
LUBBOCK       17  43  28  60 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   19  41  29  61 /  10   0  20  10
BROWNFIELD    19  42  29  61 /  10   0  20  10
CHILDRESS     19  41  27  56 /  10   0  10  10
SPUR          19  42  28  58 /  10   0  20  10
ASPERMONT     20  41  29  57 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05


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