Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 140449
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1049 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail with north-northeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level closed low continues to stagnate over the California
Baja steering the southern jet and any moisture associated with it
across south Texas while a vortmax on the east side of a sharply
amplified ridge across the Pacific Northwest will move south
across the Rockies over the next 24 hours.

Another weak and dry cold front will push south across West Texas
later tomorrow into Friday as the closed low absorbs the energy
pushing south over the Rockies and a trough associated with the
northern jet deepens over the Central Plains and Great Lakes. As
the weakening low to our south combines with the mid-latitude
trough we`ll see some cloud cover across the South Plains
overnight Thursday into Friday morning with our northwest zones
clearing out quicker and temperatures dropping into the teens
early Friday morning. Most of the South Plains and Rolling Plains
should stay blanketed with mid and high level clouds to help keep
temperatures in the mid 20s and low 30s which is seasonably cool
for this time of year.

We will remain mostly dry for the remainder of the week and
through the weekend except for the potential of another
progressive closed Pacific Low to open up and allow a small window
of opportunity for some precipitation Sunday evening into early
Monday across Cochran, Yoakum and Terry County. There isn`t much
consensus in operational models on the evolution of the low so
kept slight chance POPs across our southwest zones. Given that
another weak cold front would pass south through our area ahead of
this scenario put light snow for now, as it remains 5 days out.
Overall, model trends through the next week have been drier so
confidence is low on any impactful weather at the surface. The
ECMWF continues to keep an active longwave pattern into next week
while the GFS evolves into more zonal flow. Nonetheless the temps
will be on a bit of a roller coaster with the weak fronts but
should not peak or drop into any extreme levels helping to
maintain our climatological normal averages.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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