Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250904
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        98  67  98  66  95 /   0   0  10  10  20
TULIA         96  68  98  68  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  97  68  96 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     98  68  99  67  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK      100  72  99  71  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   99  68  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    99  69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          98  71  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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