Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 180510
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCDS AND KLBB TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF KLBB CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST
ABOVE 25 KTS AT KLBB VERY EARLY IN FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO...VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS AREA WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNSET. NEVERTHELESS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS TERMINALS FOR DURATION OF FORECAST. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE CWA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. EVEN SO...SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...WITH PWATS STILL HANGING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 1 INCH. THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING WAS
RESULTING IN MODEST MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN AS OF
THE 19Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD YET TRIGGER A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA...THOUGH THE DRYING UPPER LEVELS AND BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...COVERAGE AND DURATION. IN GENERAL...HAVE MAINTAINED
UNMENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS OCCURRING ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...AND BETTER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF/WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP THE WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A SLOW SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST STORM MOTION ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITHOUT ANY NOTABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE UPPER RIDGING CENTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL EDGE THIS WAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO BRING
EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WILL FURTHER SQUASH
STORM CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH A DRY DAY THE MOST LIKELY RESULT.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. TYPICAL AUGUST HEAT WILL FOLLOW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW NOTED OVER PUGET SOUND THIS AFTN
SAGS SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST. FCST AREA WILL END UP IN THE AREA
BETWEEN THIS LOW OVER CALIF AND THE BERMUDA HIGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND OHIO VALLEY. WILL ALSO SEE A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH
ACROSS THE CNTL AND NRN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
WILL DRAW MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...POSSBILY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
COMING THURSDAY. WILL INSERT MENTION AT THIS POINT FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLITY OF EXPANSION TO TUESDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THIS
PATTERN ALSO FAVORS TEMPS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARMER
TEMPS OFF THE CAPROCK AND COOLEST NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
NOT TOO FAR OF MOS GUIDANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  63  92  63 /  10  10   0   0  10
TULIA         66  95  65  92  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     66  95  65  91  65 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  93  65  91  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  95  66  93  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  72  99  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          68  98  68  95  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     71  98  72  98  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/01/01




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