Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220008 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
608 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
A quick update to expire the Winter Weather Advisory and trim back
PoPs across the Caprock. There is some potential for fog and
pockets of light freezing drizzle to expand back westward on the
Caprock later tonight and we`ll continue to assess.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

AVIATION...
The forecast of low ceilings will be a bit tricky this evening at
KLBB and KPVW as partial clearing has worked into the terminals.
Low stratus is expected to expand back into the terminals this
evening but the timing of category reductions is a bit uncertain.
Most of the area should see IFR ceilings overnight, followed by
a gradual improvement Thursday morning, with VFR conditions
expected by afternoon...except possibly at KCDS. Some light wintry
precipitation is also possible at KCDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low currently positioned over Nevada will swing
toward New Mexico and West Texas over the next 24 hours. The
potential for light freezing rain and sleet will continue through
tonight and the morning hours tomorrow as upper level height
fields fall and the first of two trough axis` swings across West
Texas and the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon.
Most operational guidance keeps the best chances for any
impactful wintry precipitation across the Rolling Plains tomorrow
morning but the NAM continues to indicate the potential for a
small window of light freezing rain and sleet on the Caprock
around sunrise into mid morning tomorrow. The entire CWA should be
above freezing by noon tomorrow with rain chances lingering
across the southern Rolling Plains into tomorrow afternoon. With
westerly winds picking up behind the trough axis exiting to the
north east temperatures will peak in the low 50s to low 40s from
west to east across our CWA.

The second wave associated with the approaching low arrives late
Friday into early Saturday with slight chance POPS again relegated
mostly to the southern Rolling Plains where moisture will be most
abundant, relatively speaking of course. Primarily zonal flow
will set in for the remainder of the weekend as temperatures
moderate to above normal mostly in the mid 60s through the
remainder of the forecast period. There are some hints at a
stronger upper level system than the current one affecting our
area for late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Along with the
stronger upper level low, moisture return out of the southeast
should be aided by an amplifying ridge over the southeast and Gulf
of Mexico but even then the extended guidance is only hinting at a
weak signal.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33/99


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