Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 011938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WE HAVE HAD CONVECTION...ALBEIT ATROPHYING IN COVERAGE...HANG ON
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS WHAT REMAINS OF A COMPLEX THAT BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
A SWATH FROM NEAR TULIA TO FLOMOT TO PADUCAH MUCH EARLIER TODAY.
WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE PERSISTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO CLIMB...WITH MANY SPOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS ONLY IN THE 70S AT 2 PM. THIS RELATIVELY COOL AIR FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST STRONGER HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL INHIBITION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. IN ADDITION...A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE
PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A FOCUS THAT TOWERING CU AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE ALREADY INITIATING OVER LEA COUNTY THEN BENDING EASTWARD
TOWARD ANDREWS...BIG SPRING AND SWEETWATER. THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK WINDS /AND WIND SHEAR/
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DURATION...THOUGH THEY WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY. THE SLOW STORM MOTION
IN CONJUNCTION WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE PRECIP LOADING AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO WANE DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS. STILL...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM CAN BE
MAINTAINED AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A DECENT BET AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST
ZONES COULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A MODEST AND
MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IMPINGES ON THAT AREA. THE ONE
NEGATING FACTOR WILL BE THAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH MAY BEGIN ADVANCING INTO THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH BENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS. EVEN WITH THE DRYING AIR ALOFT...PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED INSOLATION
FROM TODAY /AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES/ SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WE DID DROP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE SWATH THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
ONE MORE RELATIVELY WET DAY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL MCS SUNDAY NIGHT TO LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WHAT LOOKS
TO BE ONE FINAL NOCTURNAL MCS MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS AS DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS SEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY AS PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO CROSS THE CNTL PLAINS TUESDAY COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY
WAVE EXITING MEXICO SOUTH OF BAJA SHOULD SEE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHEARED OUT. SHORTLY AFTERWARDS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD SHUT OF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXCEPTION COULD COME FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THIS ONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AS WELL AS PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OR JUST INTO
THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW TO
INSERT MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  65  91 /  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  89  66  92 /  40  20  40  30
PLAINVIEW     68  91  68  93 /  30  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  93  68  95 /  30  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       70  93  71  94 /  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   68  95  67  96 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  94  68  96 /  30  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     71  94  71  95 /  40  30  30  30
SPUR          70  94  69  96 /  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  71  98 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07


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