Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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048
FXUS64 KLUB 032339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
539 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A SECONDARY TROF AS SHOWN ON WV IMAGERY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE OVERALL
WEATHER MINUS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AGAIN WHICH WILL CALM WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL PLACE LOWS TO NEAR WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A LEE TROF TOMORROW WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THEM TO AROUND 10-15
MPH. THIS IN ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOW/MID 50S AREA WIDE. IN OTHER WORDS TOMORROW WILL BE A FAIRLY
NICE DAY DESPITE BEING ON THE COOL SIDE. /ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE UA RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TOMORROW
NIGHT...AND RIGHT ON ITS HEELS IS AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUN ITERATIONS...SOLUTIONS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING IT TO BE MORE OF AN UA TROUGH AND THOUGH THERE
IS SOME MINOR UL SUPPORT...MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY
BE RULE GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS. THEREAFTER...UA RIDGING WILL
BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS LEADING TO DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND THRU MID-
WEEK. A SRLY SFC REGIME BEING INTERRUPTED BY BREEZY FROPAS
COURTESY OF A BROAD UA LOW WELL NE OF THE REGION...WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM MODIFYING MUCH. NONETHELESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM /50S AND 60S/ AND IN FACT...MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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