Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 171737
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Wind speeds are a bit slow to come up this morning, likely impeded
some by the thick upper level cloud cover. However, that cloud
cover is being eroded from the southwest so winds should get back
on track early in the TAF period. Winds will lay down a bit with
sunset but will increase again behind a cold front that will move
through the area late tonight. VFR conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

SYNOPSIS...
Split jet regime is indicated this morning off to our west and
northwest.  The polar jet stretches from central California up
into Montana while a weaker sub-tropical jet extends from SOCAL to
NW NM. An interesting mesoscale feature is noted on the H5 and
lower fields suggesting the blocking of some of the flow by the
Sandias which looks to let loose this afternoon. The polar trough
axis then swings into the region tonight into Saturday.
Thereafter, northwest flow persists for several days with a broad
minor wave passes on Monday morning followed by another on Tuesday
as high amplitude ridging builds out west. Northerly flow
persists on Wednesday and Thursday with the synoptic pattern
indicating some changes coming next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...
Primary weather concern will be that for fire weather today. General
thinking from the last few shifts continues with the northern South
Plains and southern Panhandle being the primary area of concern.
Wind speeds well up into the 20s are expected to develop this
afternoon.  Given the speed max is a bit late (over the classic
events) this will somewhat limit speed and duration of winds to some
extent before decoupling starts to occur this evening.  One concern
with today`s setup is potential for mid/high level cloudiness. While
the surface gradient remains favorable, some clouds have been noted
across the central part of NM.  Thus far, they don`t look to be
locking to orographic features except across the central
Sacramentos.  It would appear that this would clear by the time
winds ramp up about mid day but it is something to monitor.  Min RH
values will be well into red flag territory and have issued a red
flag warning for about 2/3rds of the CWFA.  A rangeland fire danger
statement is indicated for the remainder of the region given wind
speed/RH/NFDRS value of high. Afternoon highs will get quite toasty
given downslope flow and efficient mixing.  The record high for
today is 85 at both CDS and LBB and the current forecast bests both
by a few degrees.

DISCUSSION...
Winds will relax overnight but still remain a bit on the breezy side
as a Pacific front makes its way through the area.  However, the
Canadian front will soon follow bringing with it sharply stronger
winds.  At this point, it`s looking probable that a wind advisory
will be needed on Saturday though we`ll work to refine the details
later on today and tonight.  The front will clear moisture out all
the way to the Gulf of Mexico leaving scant little opportunity for
the next cold front, on Tuesday, to produce precipitation. Tuesday`s
system does look breezy as well.  Thereafter the next shot of cold
air comes into next Friday or beyond with some variance in how the
medium term models are handling the synoptic (let alone mesoscale)
aspects of the forecast.  So, it basically looks like dry weather
will prevail with fronts about every 3 days.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>025-
027>030-033>036.

&&

$$

07/99/99


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