Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A
PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A VERY REMOTE CHANCE OF A -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF
KLBB OR KPVW THROUGH ABOUT 01 UTC...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST BUT WITH SOME VARIATION POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED WELL THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CUMULUS FIELD AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. AS SUCH PATTERN RECOGNITION...WHICH IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT...IS USED PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA YIELDING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THIS WILL TREND NORTHEASTERLY AND PROVIDE FOR DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET. GIVEN PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE AND NO WIDESPREAD THREAT IS EXPECTED ATTM.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY RIPPLE WORTH NOTING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE AT 500MB ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
EFFECTS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL NOT BE TOO NOTICEABLE. THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT DEFINITION TO THIS SHORT WAVE AT 250MB BUT MOST LIFT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL
MOSTLY BE LEFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL BEND BACK INTO WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED WELL WEST OF THE
AREA IN NEW MEXICO. A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
ADVECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN
IS THE POSITION OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTERLY JOG WITH STRONGER LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ENTERING THE WEST COAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EASTERLY
WAVE TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO BRING BACK SOME MONSOONAL TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  65  93 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  90  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     64  90  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    65  91  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     71  95  72 100 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          67  94  70  98 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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