Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 191046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
546 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

Fog reducing VIS to MVFR will be possible at PVW through 14Z this
morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/

Light fog has begun to settle over much of the FA as winds have
remained light and dewpoints are on the moist side. Right now
visibilities at the Plainview and Lubbock airports are around 7SM
and will likely drop lower as we progress through the morning. How
low is still in question. Overall visibilities should not get below
5 miles in most places, but low lying areas could see as low as 1
mile visibility. Any fog left later in the morning should begin to
lift after sunrise.

Today should be pretty uneventful as an upper level ridge continues
building over the region. Relatively high surface moisture should
keep temps from getting out of hand and should mostly be around the
90 degree mark. Winds will overall be out of the south to southwest
as a lee trough develops and should stay around the 10-15 mph range.

The focus this morning is on next weekend. Upper level ridging
Tuesday through Thursday will result in fair weather and warm
temperatures, again favoring the slightly warmer MOS numbers
Tuesday and Wednesday. By late week a high-amplitude short wave
trough will develop across the western CONUS. Models this morning
are more progressive with the energy in this trough, but also
keeping the bulk of that energy in the northern jet stream. The
lingering trough will be a bit slower moving eastward than
previously expected. At this time there sitll appears to be enough
dynamics in the southern stream to bring a period of thunderstorm
chances centered around Saturday. Despite the changes in the
handling of this trough, the overall forecast will not change much
at this time.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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