Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 152327
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
527 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.AVIATION...
Low cloud layer is quickly breaking up as much drier air spreads
southward behind the latest cold front, now far south of our area.
Adjusted the KLBB TAF to extend another hour the MVFR cloud layer
until 01z, expect it to lift further near that time. Otherwise,
surface winds also will be gradually diminishing through the
night, and unlikely to climb back into the 15 knot range during
the day Tuesday. Still expect isentropically lifted mid clouds in
the 9000 to 10000 foot range to be around Tuesday, especially on
the Caprock. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The expected cold front has made its way south of the FA and has
brought with it much cooler and windy conditions. High temps peaked
across our northern zones well before noon while high temps peaked
between shortly after noon. Low clouds across the TX Panhandle have
aided CAA in dropping surface temps to near or below freezing and
possibly will not reach to above freezing until Wednesday afternoon.
More on temperatures in just a bit. Patchy freezing drizzle mixed
with sleet has made its way to Plainview and westward. Accumulation
is expected to be limited mainly to elevated surfaces as roadways,
trees, etc have not been exposed to freezing temps long enough to
have fully cooled to below freezing. The wintry precip mix should
push south of the FA by sunset.

Cloud cover should remain at least through late tomorrow morning as
skies clear from north to south. Timing of the clearing skies will
play a role on how high temps can reach tomorrow afternoon. If skies
clear during the early morning then it will be possible for highs to
reach just above freezing tomorrow afternoon. The current forecast
of skies clearing by late morning to early afternoon should help
keep highs just below freezing. Lows Wednesday morning will be the
coldest for the week, upper single digits to low teens, as a surface
ridge moves just to the east of the FA allowing winds to be mostly
light. Temps will rebound back into the mid 50s by Thursday as lee
troughing brings surface winds back to the southwest as a shortwave
ridge passes overhead.

Friday and Saturday will be the warmest days of the week as surface
winds will be out of the west as an upper level low tracks across the
OK Panhandle bringing the next cold front Sunday. The biggest
concern this next low will bring will be elevated fire weather
conditions due to the warm, dry, and windy conditions that will be
present with the current forecasted track of the low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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