Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KLUB 250851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
08Z SURFACE DATA REVEALED A MESOLOW NEAR SPEARMAN ALONG A COLD
FRONT EDGING SOUTH. COMPLEMENTING THIS WAVE WERE TWO MORE
BOUNDARIES - A MODEST PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE AND A DISTINCT DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE NERN PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
APPEAR MOST ON TRACK WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONT MAKING STRIDES INTO
OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MORNING ALL THE WHILE THE DRYLINE EXITS
EAST UNDER INCREASINGLY VEERED FLOW. ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AND
DECAYING FRONT WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT FLOW MORE RELAXED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LEE TROUGHING FARTHER WEST SPURS GUSTY SW
WINDS LATER IN THE DAY. MAX THICKNESSES WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT
THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH EVEN DRIER AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE TODAY
SHOULD ENCOURAGE DEEPER MIXING AND WARMER HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AND ENCOURAGE BACKING OF OUR SW WINDS ALOFT. THIS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHOULD EASILY TUG A ROBUST DRYLINE WEST INTO
AT LEAST OUR LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE MILDEST LOWS WILL
UNFOLD. DESPITE THIS IMPRESSIVE DRYLINE...DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS LAGGING TOO FAR WEST OF THE DRYLINE SO PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
ARE NIL.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AS IT SWINGS OUT ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO RAMP UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HOWEVER ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
WIND SPEEDS BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON A LOWER BOUND OF 20 MPH ACROSS
THE CAPROCK AND LOWER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. UPPER BOUNDS ARE
MORE COMPLICATED AND RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 40 MPH. STILL
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ACROSS
THE CAPROCK AND 15 TO 25 OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH. WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RESULTING IN
SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS MID-LEVEL TEMPS COOL SOME WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW AND RECENT GREENING OF FUELS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BUT FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL VALUES. LASTLY FOR
TUESDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA SO ANY HOPES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL AT
THIS POINT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE DRYLINE FROM MIXING BACK WEST
OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALSO KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER AS A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER AS WELL SO WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY WITH VARYING DISTANCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CHOSEN. AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED
LOW WILL PUSH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL START TO BACK
THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RESULT IN A SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO STREAM BACK WEST AND MAY RESULT
IN INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHEREVER IT MAY BE. MODELS
ARE NOW SHARPENING UP THE DRYLINE FOR FRIDAY AND PUSHING IT EAST
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS ACCORDING TO THE GFS OR ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE CAPROCK ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THIS IS IN CONTRAST WITH THE
PAST TWO OR THREE DAYS OF RUNS WHICH KEPT THE DRYLINE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY WHICH DROPPED MUCH OF THE CAPROCK
BACK INTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY WITH SOLID CHANCE FOR THE
ROLLING PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANGE IS FOR THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AGAIN...THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM THAN THE GFS AND HAS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER SOLUTIONS SINCE
MODELS HAVE SOME FORM OF A FRONT AND COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION
BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.