Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 200520

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are moving to the north/northeast at
around 20 mph across the southern South Plains this morning. LBB
terminal has best shot at being affected, but with the scattered
nature of the activity, kept VCTS mention for the time being.
Short term models try to keep storms going through early morning
into CDS, but confidence is too low that convection will hold to
make TAF mention attm.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

VFR. Low probability of TS affecting LBB and PVW, but CDS could
see some lightning in the vicinity as outflow near Crowell pushes
NW and spurs additional TS through the evening. Else, light
southerly winds will trending a bit gusty by Sun afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

A few thunderstorms have developed across the Rolling Plains east
of Spur and Lake Alan Henry this afternoon in area of higher
theta-e air and MLCapes around 2000 j/kg. Handled well by HRRR.
Could see some activity across the southern and SW South Plains in
area of increasing congestus to the SW of Lubbock, also hinted at
by hi-res models.

Most convection will be along the NM border Sunday into Monday
with monsoonal flow on western side of upper ridge and grids
reflect higher pops there esp toward the SW Panhandle Sunday
evening into Monday. Next significant weather change will be the
introduction of a weak cold front/boundary into the region Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday. This boundary along with the sub
tropical moisture connection and typical late summer dewpoints
will likely result in an increase in convective coverage from
Tuesday through Thursday. Gridded pops reflect this along with
some slightly cooler temperatures but only by a few degrees.
Highest pop Tues night through Thursday morning. Winds look to
return to southerly by Friday as energy from shortwave translates
across ridge and eventually takes the more widespread rain
activity with it. Toward the weekend, the ridge repositions across
the Great Basin with weak NW flow across West Texas. Pops will be
lower but non zero. Will have to watch Tropical Storm Harvey out
around 8 days as the GFS has some remnant moisture moving from a
landfall in eastern Mexico NW toward the Big Bend. Could have
implications for our weather but certainly a long way out.




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