Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 242336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH STORMS NORTH/WEST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE SQUARELY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION FOR THE FA TODAY. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS THINNING OUT AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FURTHERMORE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BEND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION. A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. A ROGUE STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EVIDENT...THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL
THETA-E AXIS. EXTENDING FROM EAST- CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ROUGHLY IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES IN THE 12Z MODEL RUNS COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS/FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY. A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE
RIDGE EAST WHILE ALSO HELPING TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY
MID-WEEK. MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE IN THE WEEK...STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WAS THAT THE 12Z RUNS CAME IN A BIT MORE
BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
OPTED TO KEEP POPS LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TO SEE
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT. OTHER IMPACT OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST AND THEN STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE WEST LATE NEXT
WEEK IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT BUT STILL BE
AROUND SEASONABLE NORMALS INSTEAD OF RUNNING ABOVE THEM.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  95  69  97 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         68  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     69  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     70  97  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  97  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  75 102 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          72  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     74 100  75 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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