Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 051713
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1113 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Southwest
breezes will veer to west and northwest ahead of a cold front this
evening then to the north with the frontal passage around midnight
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR flying expected today. A surface low over the northwest TX
Panhandle will cause winds to pick up out of the southwest by mid
morning. PVW and LBB will be more susceptible to this feature and
experience higher winds up to 25 KT this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A slowly weakening upper level low was spinning its way gradually
northeast across the Big Bend this morning. Rain from this system
was covering much of Central Texas and parts south and east towards
the Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, cloud cover extended as far north as the
central South Plains and eastward into Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Throughout the day, the low will quickly open and swing across
Central Texas to the ArkLaTex, flinging a few clouds towards the far
southeastern extent of the forecast area. However, with this track
and a slightly drier airmass, have chosen to pull PoPs from the
forecast area today.

A surface low was developing over southeastern CO this morning and
will continue to move southeast into the TX Panhandle by mid
morning. Ahead of this feature, the surface pressure gradient will
tighten, and winds will pick up out of the southwest through the
afternoon at 15-20 mph. This along with continued sunshine will lead
to the warmest day since the first day of this month. That`s not
saying much, as we`re not too far into December, but highs will
be just slightly above normal...making for a nice change. Then
winds turn northerly overnight, pulling in the first batch of cold
air this week. Depending on the timing of this front, lows may
taper a few degrees colder. Went just slightly higher than MOS
guidance for overnight lows as this first punch of cold air looks
to be a bit more gradual filtering in than what`s coming next.

LONG TERM...
Upper level low that is transiting the state to our southeast today
will phase with a multi-core low over the northern sates and central
Canada as it ejects into the Ohio Valley.  Into Wednesday, the next
(and much stronger) batch of energy will rotate about the primary
core north of Lake Superior approaching West Texas early Wednesday
morning.  Today`s solutions have changed a bit over previous nights
in that the flow regime will remain northwesterly becoming zonal
for a protracted period. The primary difference being the
handling of the Pacific Coast ridge. It is now progged to flatten
out west therefore having less of a specific impact on West Texas.
As it stands today, only a few minor ripples are noted in the main
flow in the latter extended.

The first of our two mid-week fronts should be through the entire
CWFA by sunrise on Tuesday (as mentioned above.) Winds will be a
bit on the breezy side during the morning hours though they will
rapidly diminish and veer through the afternoon as the second
aforementioned mid- level trough begins its approach. Given the
delay of the second and deeper trough, the GFS/ECE/GEM have come
into better agreement with timing with the NAM serving as a being
a bit faster. Generally speaking the tendency over the past few
nights have been converging on what the GFS has been advertising.
However, cold air masses such as this generally are more expedient
than tardy with arrival thus the expedited nature of the NAM is
preferred and will adjust highs for Wednesday accordingly. What is
interesting, and has been noted the past few nights, is that
despite the front making it all the way to Central America, return
flow occurs very quickly (Thursday evening)--that is, to say a
rather shallow but cool airmass. On both Tuesday and Wednesday,
post-frontal clouds will be on the increase and there continues to
be some potential for sprinkles- -especially Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Up along our northern CWFA border, it is even possible that
a few flurries could be seen early Wednesday morning though no
accumulation is expected. By Saturday=, we`ll be be back to
breezy southwesterlies.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07


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