Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 220453
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. MOST OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A RISK OF PATCHY VFR
FOG NEAR DAYBREAK...AS TEMPS LOWER AND IF DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON THE NM MOUNTAINS WILL NOT MOVE FAR OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN WITH DRY NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE
SFC HGIH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. LEE SFC TROUGH
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN NM BY EARLY AFTN. RESULT WILL BE
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE FCST AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NM
STATE LINE. OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME FOG NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS. NO STRONG
SIGNAL SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MAKING ITS MOVE EASTWARD SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE INNER MOUNTAIN WEST MOVES TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES CONTINUES TO SEEM UNLIKELY AS TIME
PROGRESSES. VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL HELP INHIBIT
CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO THERE STILL BEING A POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CAP STILL BEING PRESENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
SOME CONVECTION DOES HAPPEN TO SQUEEZE INTO THE REGION THE BASES
WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. A LEE TROF WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL IN TURN INCREASE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY TAME...15-20 MPH...AS THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.

A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING AS YET ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO TAKE
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS LOW BY MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CO BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
EVEN WINDIER CONDITIONS WITH WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 MPH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE CAPROCK
REGION AVERAGING CLOSE TO 35 MPH. DUE TO STILL SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WINDS IN THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK BY 5 MPH
BUT STILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.

A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT
WEEK IF MODELS GET THEIR WAY. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN AS OF
LATE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN TO SOUTHERN CA
BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS PROGGED LOW IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW LOWS AND BRINGS DECENT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. A
SLOSHING DRYLINE IS SHOWN TO USE THIS MOISTURE TO ITS ADVANTAGE BY
ALLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF CONVECTION. WHILE A DECENT WAYS AWAY IT IS
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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