Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITIES OF BOTH TERMINALS LATE
SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD BRING SOME TEMPORARY VSBY
REDUCTIONS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE ABSENCE
OF T-STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM A REMOTE CHANCE OF -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 20 HOURS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AGGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRYING WAS FOUND SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A SHEARED TROUGH. WHAT SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST ARE LARGELY NONDESCRIPT IN SWLY FLOW WITH ONLY
MODEST SURFACE TROUGHING AND SOME MOISTURE POOLING APPARENT IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES. SOME TURKEY TOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA...
HOWEVER DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THESE AGITATED CU
IN CHECK. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN HAMPERED A BIT BY
THICKER CLOUDS AT TIMES WHICH IN TURN HAVE LIMITED DEEPER BDRY LAYER
MIXING NECESSARY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE
FEW HOURS AHEAD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE DECAYING UPPER TROUGH...
BUT PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ARE NOW EVEN LESS...SO PRECIP
MENTION HAS BEEN REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

WHAT MEAGER MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SCOURED
OUT FURTHER AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND RIDS US OF THE RECENT WEAK CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. THE SURFACE
TROUGH MEANWHILE WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LEAVING LITTLE IF
ANY FOCUS FOR LL CONVERGENCE. OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
DIABATIC HEATING ALONE IN THIS SETUP LOOKS TOO HARD PRESSED FOR
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER END OF THE MOS
SPECTRUM FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS.

LONG TERM...
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN BORDER LATE
SUNDAY BUT THE MODELS ARE TENDING TOWARD LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...SYNOPTIC FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUS RUNS DUE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHIFTING
FARTHER EAST...THE GFS EXTENDS THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST IN
MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE ECMWF CLOSING THE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INCREASED POPS ALONG EASTERN BORDER AS SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY...TEMPS COOL AND BECOME MORE
SEASONAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  67  91  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  69  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  94  68  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  96  70  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  96  69  94  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     71 102  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          69  99  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     71 101  74  99  74 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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