Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 261738 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is a
possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon near the TAF sites
but confidence in this actually happening is too low to include at
this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Thunder coming to an end across the area. Redevelopment this
afternoon is looking unlikely. Stratus is generally well west and
southeast of the area at this time and is not expected to affect
the terminals. Will run with VFR conditions and light winds
through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

Overnight convection that brought heavy rainfall and severe wind
gusts is currently moving south and southeast toward the I20
corridor. Lingering light to moderate rain should continue falling
through the central and southern South Plains until right around
day break. Many locations across our area received between one to
two inches of much needed rainfall.

The convective system moved south through our area quicker than
the short term guidance suggested. With a worked over boundary
level, any convective potential will need time to recover so
lowered POP guidance for later this morning considerably, while
also doing the same for later this after noon as upper level
height rises spread east across West texas. But with moisture in
place and temperatures expected to also exceed much of the
guidance and both the ECMWF and GFS indicating weak instability
rounding the ridge in northwest flow we may see scattered showers
and thunderstorms by mid afternoon as weak surface convergence
sets up essentially along the I27 corridor. NAM dries us out by
later tonight while GFS/ECMWF indicate weak signal for lingering
convection into early Tuesday.

Tuesday begins the drier pattern in earnest as temperatures warm
to more seasonal levels under zonal flow aloft that gradually
becomes northwest again by the end of the week. Decent Gulf
moisture return the second half of this week will build dewpoints
into the 60s east of a dryline on Thursday out ahead of a cold
front that arrives late Thursday night into early Friday morning
and should provide another chance at some widespread rainfall
across our area. Precipitation chances appear to linger into next
weekend as well but will have to see how the next system evolves
this week before adding anymore detail.




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