Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210325 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1025 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

10 pm observations from the West Texas Mesonet show that
temperatures have dropped into the lower to middle 40s from Bailey
County through Briscoe about 10 degrees to go for a
light freeze or frost across this area. Dewpoints are running in
the upper 20s to low 30s at this time, and aren`t expected to drop
much lower. So it appears that a light frost is favored and will
likely be limited to draws, washes and other cold air drainages.
We aren`t anticipating any highlights at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 227 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/

Northwest flow aloft will persist over the next 24 hours as high
pressure aloft drifts to the Sun Country of West Texas. Wind
speeds will rapidly diminish around sunset as a surface high
settles in to our northeast. Return southerly flow should set up
overnight across the western 2/3rds of the area though the Rolling
Plains may end up with near calm winds toward sunrise though
overall, winds will be fairly light area-wide. This scenario begs
concern for freeze potential overnight. At this point, surface
dewpoints to our north do not indicate any substantial drying. The
lowest objective Td values make it down to only about 30 degrees
which would tend to make it quite challenging for the air temp to
hit 32. While a station making 32 or a degree or two cooler is not
out of the question, confidence is only about 20-30 pct and thus
shy of watch criteria. If a freeze occurs, it would most likely
affect Castro, Swisher, Briscoe, Lamb, Hale, and Floyd counties
and likely be confined to low-lying areas which experience cold
air drainage. Perhaps the most likely counties to see a light
freeze might be Floyd and Briscoe as they should see the best
juxtaposition of light winds and minimized southerly flow.

Warming temperatures will again dominate the weather pattern
through next week.

Temperatures will quickly warm up after today`s more fall like
day. A 589 decameter ridge will move across central Texas this
weekend increasing heights/thickness values. Surface pressure
troughing to the west will increase afternoon winds out of the
southwest giving us a more favorable pattern for warming
temperatures as well. A cold front will stall out north of the
region as surface ridging spills onto the Northern Plains and
Midwest. Although record values are not anticipated, temperatures
on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal are expected. We may
see a little reprieve around Tuesday next week as a weak short
wave moves overhead bringing cloud cover and lower heights. Some low
level moisture will return but thunder chances will be low with
the weak short wave. After Tuesday, both the GFS and ECMWF bring
even stronger upper level ridging overhead keeping warm
temperatures around.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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