Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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324
FXUS64 KLUB 020954
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...
COOL DRY AND BREEZY ON TRACK TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE WHILE MID AND UPPER MOIST LAYERS HOLDING BACK TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST UNABLE TO SURVIVE THROUGH THE SINKING REGIME.
SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ZONES BY MIDDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS
ALREADY WILL HAVE MIXED TO A WEST-NORTHWEST COMPONENT BY THEN SO
SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH ADDITIONAL DIRECTION CHANGE WHILE SPEEDS
SHOULD PUMP UP JUST A NOTCH. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE RENEWED LIFT AND
SHOULD ALLOW A SPREAD OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 700 TO 600
MILLIBAR LAYER BACK AT LEAST INTO WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY OR THIS
EVENING. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY HELP DIMINISH
CLOUDS A BIT AS WELL. LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO LIFT
WILL BE INADEQUATE TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALTHOUGH VIRGA SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT TRY TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE NEW
MEXICO LINE LATER TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MAKING
IT THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER LOW THAT WILL APPROACH THE ARE FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S.

THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES TOWARD WEST TEXAS
AND THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TOWARD THE GULF COAST
REGION. THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AS NOTED
BY THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS FASTEST AND WOULD
HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEREAS THE GFS
MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...THICKNESS AND SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT RAIN SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MILD. AS
SUCH WILL GOT WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND LEAVE FURTHER REFINEMENT
TO BE UPDATED AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW POURING COOLER AIR INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. AS SUCH WE EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S OR LOWER 50S. JLIPE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND BREEZY EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH IN THE COOL PART OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. PROBABLY NOT
A GOOD DAY FOR GENERAL BURNING...FIRE SPREAD WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN THE CONDITION OF THE FUELS. WE LIKELY WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST...IN SPITE OF THE RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/04



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