Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 201718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1118 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

VFR through the period. Modestly gusty WSW winds this afternoon to
diminish some this evening. The next cold front will arrive approx
12Z Tuesday with increasing north winds behind it.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

An upper level trough will translate across the area this morning.
As a result of the upper level trough`s approach, a lee surface
trough has developed to our west. This will result in a tighter
surface pressure gradient increasing winds this afternoon. The
downslope component will lead to warmer than normal high
temperatures and decreased RH value. All of these things combined
will make for an elevated fire weather day. Will issue an RFD which
will more specifically highlight the areas of concern and timing.
Generally speaking, areas west of a Tahoka to Memphis line during
the afternoon/evening evening hours, will be the main concern. Two
fires, over the past two days, have occurred in the CWA confirming
the fact that the fuels are prime for wildfires. Caution should be
exercised with any kind of outdoor flame.

On Tuesday, an upper level ridge begins to amplify west of the area.
As this amplification occurs a shortwave will travel southeastward
along the periphery of the ridge north of the CWA. This will result
in a "cold" front moving through the region. Winds will also
increase to near advisory levels. High temperatures will drop closer
to normalfor both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thanksgiving through the mid weekend will be warm and fairly benign.
This is thanks to the upper level ridge parking itself over the
western US and keeping NW flow aloft over the area. Saturday
afternoon another surge of shortwave energy is sent down the lee
side of the ridge as another surface low translates through the
area. This will bring another cool front through the the region.
Thus, high temperatures will fall a few degrees closer to normal
but, still above what one would think November fall temperatures
should feel like.




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