Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 132029
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
329 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fair weather CU field is a bit more expansive today as low-level
moisture has increased anywhere from 2-4 degrees F compared to
this time yesterday. Mid-level moisture has also increased
considerably as the low moving across Far West Texas has helped to
pull moisture northward across the area. Unfortunately the
atmosphere remains fairly stable so we don`t expect any storms
across our area this afternoon and tonight and probably through
the entirety of Friday as well. The good news is that the
increased moisture will help to keep highs at or a few degrees
below normal.

Rain chances for this weekend all continue to hinge on how far
north and west the ridge will move and any shortwaves that ride
around the eastern periphery of the high. There will be a weak
shortwave trough moving across the area Saturday into Saturday
night that will probably help increase coverage of precipitation
a bit. However, it also complicates the forecast for Sunday as the
models are now keeping either a fairly strong shortwave or area
of convective feedback somewhere across eastern CO/western KS
instead of bringing it south with the 12Z runs. This may reduce
rain chances for Sunday compared to previous forecasts and will
need to be watched as we head into the weekend.

For next week, the models continue to struggle with how the mid-
level pattern will develop. The GFS and GFS Ensemble continue to
move and elongate the high across Colorado/Kansas/Missouri while
the ECMWF continues to keep the high centered over
Missouri/Illinois. This configuration will mean that we should
have deep easterly flow over the area with chances for
afternoon/evening thunderstorms with the exception of Tuesday.
Tuesday will be the day the high will be transitioning into
whichever model configuration is correct, but both hold off
developing the best easterly flow until Wednesday. Increased
moisture will keep high temperatures a few degrees below normal
and low temperatures at or a few degrees above normal.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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