Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260759
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN QUITE
A BIT OF SIMILARITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES MAY
WOBBLE EVER SO SLIGHTLY EWD...ALTHOUGH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR JUST A TOUCH LOWER THAN TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...MODEL BLENDS LIKELY A BIT TOO COOL AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING GIVEN SIMILAR
TEMP AND MOISTURE PROFILES. POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE DOWNWARD
MOTION FROM THE UPPER RIDGE COULD COME INTO PLAY AS A MORE NEGATIVE
FACTOR WHILE CHOOSING A FAVORABLE LOCATION WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PROJECTING LOCATION OF ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
COULD FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. RESULT WILL BE TO KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTION ATTM.

.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGE WORTH NOTING IN THE EXTENDED REALM INVOLVES A SLOWER
COLD FROPA NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTEAD OF
THE MORNING. ALL OF THIS HINGES ON A MINOR WAVE APEXING THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE ROCKIES AND GRAZING OUR DOMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...
SO FURTHER CHANGES TO THIS FROPA MAY EMERGE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
DESPITE THIS DELAYED FRONT...THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL SEE
WEAKLY CYCLONIC 700-500 MB FLOW EMERGE ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL TUG SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE EASTWARD AND SHOULD AID IN STORM COVERAGE
PARTICULARLY ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH JUST BEYOND OUR NW COUNTIES.
OPTED TO KEEP A MORE GENEROUS COVERAGE LOW PRECIP MENTION IN OUR
NW THU AFTN EVEN THOUGH MOST MODELS /WHICH HAVE BEEN ABYSMAL WITH
QPF VERIFICATION LATELY/ INDICATE OTHERWISE.

OF THE NEXT SIX DAYS...FRIDAY STILL STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OUR NRN ZONES BEFORE WASHING OUT
SAT MORNING NEAR THE PERMIAN BASIN. ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE
WANING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THURSDAY NIGHT/S MINOR TROUGH...A
RESIDUAL W-E AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE ALOFT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THIS LOW-LEVEL LIFT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND A N-S
SURFACE TROUGH. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND A MOIST AXIS PARALLELING
THE FRONT WOULD POINT TO SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT THE FINER
AND MORE CRITICAL MESOSCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE A BLACK ART
WELL BEYOND OUR PAY SCALE.

THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND EXHIBIT THE UPPER RIDGE ELONGATING FROM THE
DESERT SW NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH RISING HEIGHTS LOCALLY.
A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE ALONG THE SERN
ATLANTIC COAST MAY OFFER PARTS OF TEXAS A TUTT-TYPE CELL MEANDERING
WESTWARD BY THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS THE
LONE WOLF AT THE MOMENT IN PROGGING THIS WAVE TO REACH THE PERMIAN
BASIN BY TUE NIGHT WITH MUCH SLOWER SOLUTIONS FROM REMAINING
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93


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