Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.AVIATION...
A strong cold front will move through around daybreak Thursday
morning bringing strong northerly winds and possible MVFR CIGS.
KCDS will see the best chance at lowered CIGS and possibly
persisting for the entire day on Thursday. Furthermore, until the
front arrives early Thursday morning, LLWS will exist at KCDS and
come close to KLBB tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Very dry, warm, and capped airmass with a dryline currently pushing
into the eastern South Plains, eventually to the edge of the Caprock
where it will probably hang before retreating this evening. Surface
trough will sag southward overnight and low level flow will veer
once more late tonight in advance of a cold front expected to arrive
into central zones near daybreak Thursday. Lower atmosphere will
remoisten behind the front, with solutions offering varying degrees
of saturation and cloud cover. But certainly should be at least
areas of lower clouds lasting well into the day favoring northern
and eastern zones. We have retained a dry forecast for tomorrow,
though some solutions are indicating spotty showers especially in
the afternoon. Something to keep an eye on. Another relatively mild
overnight is expected, but tomorrows highs behind the front will be
notably cooler and featuring a north-south gradient. McQueen

LONG TERM...
The storm system currently well off the Pacific Northwest Coast will
dig through the central and northern Rockies Thursday night. It is
progged to close off at 500 mb as it emerges over southeast Colorado
and then translates eastward across Kansas Friday and Friday night.
Isentropic upglide will increase above the residual surface ridge
Thursday evening which will support the development/expansion of
low clouds and elevated convection through the overnight hours.
The best combination of lift, moisture and instability would tend
to favor the Texas Panhandle, though some activity could develop
further south into at least our northern and northeastern zones.
Additionally, we will have to see if isolated surface-based
convection can develop along/near the stalled front which will
reside near the far southern Rolling Plains Thursday evening.
There will be enough elevated instability and wind shear to
support a few stronger storms (elevated hailers) Thursday night,
though a bulk of the activity may stay to the north of the CWA.

Dry and gusty westerly winds /perhaps venturing into wind advisory
territory/ will then overspread the South Plains region from west-to-
east as the dry slot envelopes the area. A strong spring front will
follow the trough passage Friday evening/night bringing more strong
winds, though this time from a northerly direction with a bit of a
cool bite. We could again see wind speeds stray into advisory
levels for a period Friday evening/night, with breezy northerly
winds persisting through Saturday. Highs will vary from the middle
and upper 70s north to lower 90s south on Friday, but will tumble
into the 60s on Saturday after starting out mostly in the 40s
(perhaps a few upper 30s northwest).

A surface high will settle over the southern High Plains Saturday
night providing clear skies, light winds and a chilly night. Lows
in the lower to middle 40s will be common from Lubbock eastward,
with middle to upper 30s expected across the southwest Texas
Panhandle and northwest South Plains where a light late season
frost may be possible.

A quick warming trend will follow into the first part of next week
as southerly to westerly surface winds return and become gusty at
times. Highs should quickly recover from the lower 70s Sunday into
the 80s on Monday, with plenty of 90s mixing in by Tuesday. Aloft
ridging on Sunday will give way to quasi-zonal to southwesterly
flow. The mid-week trough that was advertised yesterday now appears
flatter in the medium range guidance...meaning no reason to include
mentionable PoPs in the forecast from the weekend into at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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