Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COMPUTER MODELS HINTING AT IT SAGGING SOUTH AND
AFFECTING KCDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LEADING TO A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AT KLBB...S-SW WINDS WILL ENSUE. HOWEVER...A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
AFFECT KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IMPINGE ON KLBB BY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 AT KCDS TO SHOW THE
BEST TIME OF THIS OCCURRENCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION AT KLBB ATTM...GIVEN COMPUTER MODELS SHOW BETTER CHANCES
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
.A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  85  64  85  63 /  30  40  40  40  30
TULIA         67  84  65  84  65 /  30  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  65  85  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     68  89  64  90  66 /  10  30  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  89  69  89  69 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  91  66  91  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  91  66  91  67 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  88  69  86  69 /  30  30  40  40  30
SPUR          72  92  68  89  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  95  70  90  71 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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