Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 070541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1241 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST WILL PERSIST AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH TUE MORNING DUE TO PERIODICALLY INCR/DECR CIGS
AND VSBYS AND EMBEDDED TS WITHIN NUMEROUS SHRA. STILL ANTICIPATE
CIGS TO EVENTUALLY DROP WELL INTO MVFR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE VSBYS FOLLOW THAT TREND AS WELL.

EARLIER THOUGHTS OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY BE PREMATURE. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL THREE TERMINALS COULD
BE UNDER MVFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUE. THIS TREND HAS
BEEN REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE EXPANSION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST TO
THE NM STATE LINE. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA RECEIVED ONE-
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL LARGE AREAS
RECEIVING WELL OVER TWO INCHES AND HAVE CAUSED SOME AREAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THAT WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOOD RISK. JH/GS

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL MAKE TERMINAL
FORECASTS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST FOR KLBB AND KPVW AND A BIT
BEYOND FOR KCDS WITH VSBYS FALLING TO MVFR WITH STRONGER TSRA.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE CIGS DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY OUTSIDE
AREAS OF PCPN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER A QUIET WEEKEND...THE WORK WEEK IS ROARING TO A START. A COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...JUST
ENTERING AMA AS OF 20Z. WE ALSO HAVE A SURFACE LOW FEATURE OVER NEW
MEXICO. THIRD INGREDIENT...AMPLE MOISTURE. AS OF 20Z...WE ARE SEEING
DEWPOINTS IN 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
THE TX/NM BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SFC LOW AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. THERE IS THE SET UP.

THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE BREAKOUT OF THIS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIEST DURATION OF RAIN TO BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. HAVE PAID ATTENTION
TO ONE NOTABLE FEATURE PRESENT ON THE GFS AROUND THE 6Z TIME
PERIOD...AN ENHANCED AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA THAT
MAY PROVIDE FOR BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF RAINFALL. THIS QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THE FRONT AND SFC LOW EXIT THE AREA...THUS TAKING WITH
IT THE RAINFALL. HAVE UPDATED THIS FORECAST TO HAVE THE DRYING TREND
START IN THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUT THE DAY. HAVE LEFT HIGHER POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH BOTH OF THE EXITING FEATURES LATE
TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP WILL STILL BE ONGOING LATE TUES/EARLY WED AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROF AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP AID IN LIFT BEHIND AN
ALREADY PASSED FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THIS REGION WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE TROF
LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE
SOUTH BY MID WED IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROF AND THIS FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT LEAST THRU LATE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE WE SIT ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND JUST EAST OF A TROF.
RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH THE CENTER OF THE 594 DM
HIGH RIGHT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES MAY WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE PLACING THE WEST TEXAS REGION IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWING TERRAIN INFLUENCED CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE IN OUR
DIRECTION. UNTIL THEN THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET.

ALDRICH
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  69  58  84 /  80  40  20  30
TULIA         61  68  59  82 /  80  50  30  30
PLAINVIEW     62  69  61  82 /  80  60  30  30
LEVELLAND     63  73  61  84 /  80  50  30  30
LUBBOCK       64  73  62  83 /  80  60  40  30
DENVER CITY   66  77  63  85 /  80  50  30  30
BROWNFIELD    64  76  62  85 /  80  60  30  30
CHILDRESS     66  73  64  85 /  90  80  50  30
SPUR          65  75  63  85 /  90  80  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  82  66  88 /  80  80  60  40
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>038.
&&

$$

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