Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 101725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1125 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail this TAF cycle. Winds expected to stay
up overnight limiting concern for LLWS as H8 speeds increase to
45kt. This portends gusty, westerly sfc winds on Sunday ahead of
a front.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

Lee surface troughing will continue today and combined with clear
skies will lead to warmer conditions this afternoon. Westerly winds
aloft will be on the increase this evening especially near 850mb.
This will keep surface winds breezy overnight likely keeping any
chance at fog and low stratus at bay.

A cold frontal intrusion still is on track for Sunday afternoon
and evening. Solutions have sped up frontal passage a bit into
northern zones and we have followed with more cooling north
central to northeast zones. Downslope west to northwesterly winds
perhaps close to 30 mph will dominate most of the Caprock area
Sunday with decent warming sans the high cloud cover, which very
well could prove significant related to high temperatures.

Otherwise, zonal westerly components aloft should tend to weaken
several frontal pushes into the coming week. Solutions even have
backed away with what had been looking as a significant cold push
for mid week. We will follow these trends for now and portray only
modest cooling.

Significant upper level amplification over the eastern Pacific
and eventual translation of an upper trough into the intermountain
west may lead to a cold dump next weekend. Solutions at least
agree that amplification will occur, but less on details. Bulk of
impacts appear just beyond the day 7 forecast. Stay tuned.




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