Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 151031
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
431 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...
A couple of lead short waves this morning out ahead of the parent
upper level low were bringing an enhanced batch of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. These short waves were evident from
about 700-500mb and on water vapor imagery. This activity will
depart in the next few hours before the main low lifts out this
afternoon and evening bringing an abundant amount of forcing to the
entire region.

Widespread thunderstorms and heavy rain continues to be likely as
the low lifts out directly over the South Plains. Temperatures will
not likely budge more than a few degrees again today but would
likely be enough to stave off any freezing precipitation concerns.
Further warming will likely take place as very strong lift combined
with the heavy rain bringing some warmer air aloft down to the
surface. Severe chances will be low with convection this afternoon.
Elevated instability will only be on the order of a few hundred
J/kg.

The upper low will move across the region quickly ending
precipitation from west to east this evening. However, we will be
subject to moisture wrapping around the low, especially in the
southwestern Texas Panhandle. The column will rapidly cool as the
system moves over the area. Models have been wavering a bit on the
exact track of the system but bring a deformation zone and a trowal
close to the southwestern Texas Panhandle. What is concerning for
snow is the fact that models are in agreement in drying out a layer
between 600-500mb which is where the dendritic growth zone is
located. Otherwise, only light accumulations are expected.

.LONG TERM...
Even the slowest solutions finally lift the upper low into western
Oklahoma by daybreak Monday, with a veered mid and upper level
flow and anticyclonic curvature following. Cold advection will be
following at the surface, but a much drier airmass will allow
return of sunshine and thus diurnal trends. Monday will finally be
milder in spite of so-called cold advection.

Upper flow will begin backing again late Monday into Tuesday ahead
of a trailing upper trough that although looks initially dry may
have ability to lift deeper lower to mid level moisture back into
at least southeastern zones Tuesday and Tuesday night. We are
uncertain how far south and east lower levels will dry on Monday so
the prospects for showers is uncertain. We have added a slight
chance now just for the southern part of the Rolling Plains.
Solutions in the next day or two are sure to play this more
reliably than current runs.

Solutions also are trending slower and a bit further south with a
weak upper low or trough that may delay until Thursday before
ejecting through the area. Overall precipitable water levels look
slightly improved compared to earlier runs, so will have to keep
watching trends for meaningful shower prospects. Wednesday and
Thursday remain dry in our forecast. Warming also a bit suppressed
but still should climb well into the 60s by late in the week.

Pacific energy will be pounding the west coast again by Thursday
and Friday with jet energy expected to progress through the
southwestern U.S. An energetic lead wave should pass openly to
our north Friday and appears capable of activating the wind
machine. We have sided with CONSMOS wind speeds for this wave,
agreeing with MOS output indicating potential for at least 20 to
30 mph winds favoring northern and western counties. A more potent
system will follow into the southern plains area next weekend. A
lot of questions still on the storm track and ability for moisture
replenishment. But enough Pacific moisture will be available for
an initial 20 percent chance for precipitation at this point. More
also on this system in days ahead. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ021-022-
027-028-033>036-039>044.

Freezing Rain Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
TXZ023>026-029>032-037-038.

&&

$$

01/05



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