Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 140900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
300 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Shortwave trough embedded in northerly flow will track from the
Colorado Plateau this morning to the Texas Hill Country by
tomorrow accompanied by a swath of mid-level clouds. Meanwhile,
cool surface ridging should build over the region today on breezy
north winds, but clouds should hold off until later today and
tonight as the trough passes through. Barring some flurries or
sprinkles mostly NW of our CWA today and tonight, saturated
ascent with this trough looks to be overwhelmed by a deep and
dry sub-cloud layer. Models are at least beginning to converge on
this trough phasing with a Baja low on Friday, before lifting
north and bisecting Texas on Saturday. The west edge this trough
axis looks to graze our south and eastern zones with mostly mid
and high clouds, with better prospects for precip east of Highway
83 near an axis of improving Gulf moisture. Otherwise, Friday and
Saturday remain dry at this point with very breezy, but semi-moist
SSW winds on Saturday effectively curbing our earlier wildfire

For Sunday and Monday, confidence remains low regarding the
evolution of a more vigorous shortwave trough dropping southward
through the Great Basin. No one model has shown any real trust
factor from run-to-run, so we`ll keep tight to a blended solution
which favors an open and progressive trough shifting east over the
region from Sunday night into Monday. A slowing cold front across
the region on Sunday may assist with elevated Fn ascent overnight in
advance of this trough, so we have kept some 20% PoPs intact to the
SW of Lubbock where some very light snow and/or rain could evolve.

Most of next week should see a steady moderation of temps under
increasingly zonal and uneventful flow. This still looks to change
by the end of the week per ensembles and their depiction of deep
troughing across the western CONUS complete with below normal
temps for much of the Great Plains.




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