Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AGAIN AT
EITHER TAF SITE BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWERED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PATCHY THAN THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THAN LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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