Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 101731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS INCREASING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE...JUST A SLIGHT DELAY AT KCDS
AND KLBB. BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTN THEN DIMINISHING EARLY EVENING.
A MODEST COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTH BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 12 KTS. VFR THROUGH THE TAF FCST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND DECREASE IN DEW POINT TEMPS JUST A TAD
BEHIND SCHEDULE...BUT A MARGINAL TO LOW END RED FLAG DAY STILL IN
STORE FOR POINTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK. WILL MAINTAIN
RFW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT TIMES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20
KTS. WIND WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS TAF CYCLE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...
PUBLIC FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS.  00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH STRONGER JET-LEVEL WINDS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES DOWN TO THE 850 HPA LEVEL AS WELL WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AIR
IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.  AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...MODELS FORECAST
THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION
RESULTING IN A BROAD BUT DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.

THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT BIGGER CONCERN WILL
BE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  ALL MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF 30-40 KNOT 850 HPA
WESTERLY WIND SWINGING OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASING INTO THIS LEVEL
WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH
BIGGER IMPACTS IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SO SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE MAIN
IMPACT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 70S FOR THE CAPROCK AND LOW 80S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT THANKS TO THE WEST WIND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BUMP TEMPS TODAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.  A COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS
FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY.  A BIT OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
MAY IMPACT MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A BIT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES.  BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE TO KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP
OVERNIGHT SO THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING DOES NOT DOMINATE HOW LOW MIN
TEMPS WILL FALL.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE. THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PINPOINTING THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE MODEST COLD FRONTS THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
EVERY DAY OR TWO.

AFTER A VERY WARM FEBRUARY DAY TODAY WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST FROPA
OF THE PERIOD EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND MINOR COOLING...THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A QUICK RETURN TO DOWNSLOPE BREEZES EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONG INSOLATION AND THE DRY DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SECOND FROPA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE 1045 MB
SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL PLUNGE OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
WEST TEXAS WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF GLANCING BLOW...BUT IT
WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES ON SATURDAY...WHILE A MORE LIMITED INFLUENCE
SHOULD KEEP READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER UP ON THE CAPROCK.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH MAY ATTEMPT TO CARRY IN SOMEWHAT IMPROVED MOISTURE
LEVELS AND MAYBE EVEN BRING THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT VEERING SURFACE FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY THREAT/DURATION.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
EVENING...THOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 60S
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS FRONT WILL HAVE MINIMAL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT A FEW SHOWERS COULD TRY
AND FIRE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BETTER MOISTURE LATE
SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES...BUT THE MUCH BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS. ATTM 10 PERCENT POPS APPEAR
SUFFICIENT ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES VENTURE BACK UP INTO THE 70S
BEYOND THAT /BY TUESDAY/ AS DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS REDEVELOP.

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED AND THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST.
A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
ON WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE NEEDED IS HOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST
WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST LOW
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEETING TIME
AND SPEED CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. WEST OF A
DIMMITT...LUBBOCK...TO ASPERMONT LINE...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO NOT REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MEET THE TIME REQUIREMENT FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
STILL WARRANT CARE AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR
AREAS NOT COVERED BY A RED FLAG WARNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL
NOT BE A GOOD DAY TO DO ANY BURNING ANYWHERE IN THE LUBBOCK CWA.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-036>038.

&&

$$

07/99/99


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