000
FXUS64 KLUB 240838
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
338 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The stalled surface front remains draped over the southern portion
of the forecast area. Satellite analysis shows low clouds developing
north of the boundary with a low deck of stratus clouds expected to
develop across the far southern Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains and
portions of the northern South Plains by the morning hours as
temperatures continue to cool overnight. These low clouds will
continue to linger through the morning hours before clearing.
Meanwhile, despite weak upper ridging and westerly winds, the next
low off the West Coast will provide Pacific moisture advection and
high clouds developing in the afternoon hours. Thus, between the
morning stratus and afternoon cirrus, temperatures may be a bit
tricky across the area.

As the day continues on, the stationary front will retreat northward
with warm southerly flow returning across much of the area. The
dryline will be positioned across the western portions of the South
Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle with dewpoints in the upper
50s to mid 60s east of the axis. In conjunction with the moistening
boundary layer, instability will increase with SBCAPE values around
1500-2500 J/kg. With weakening CIN through the day, the chances for
storm initiation continues to look increasingly better through the
evening hours, especially across the southeastern South Plains and
southern Rolling Plains. Only a few models keep the capping
inversion going with limited to no storm development. Bulk wind
shear values are around 50 to 60 knots with a slight increase in
winds aloft and the low level jet kicking in. Thus, a severe storm
or two cannot be ruled out heading into the evening hours (slightly
before sunset and after) with very large hail up to two inches in
diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph possible. Any storm
that develops will likely be moving to the southeast, but storm
splits may occur with a northward left moving storm possible.
Soundings indicate the present of backing low level winds and
therefore the threat for a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The
storms chances will come to an end around Midnight for the area with
warm moist air remaining in place and the return of low clouds. Low
temperatures remain mild in the 60s, with near record breaking
warmest minimum temperatures. Previous records were 64 and 67
degrees for Lubbock and Childress respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper level ridging will quickly exit east of the region Thursday
as a shortwave trough across the desert southwest tracks
northeastward, becoming negatively oriented, into the Central
Plains Thursday evening into Friday morning. The shortwave trough
is expected to quickly lift to the north Friday evening, making
way for an additional shortwave trough to move into the region
from the Four Corners Saturday morning. Thereafter, ridging will
begin to build back into the region as we head into early next
week.

A dry-line is expected to sharpen along the I-27 corridor Thursday
afternoon while moist return flow works to pump in efficient gulf
moisture, with dewpoints on the order of 50 and greater, into
areas across the Caprock. However, one caveat to this afternoon
set-up will be the presence of an EML overhead leaving the
forecast area capped for much of the afternoon, limiting
thunderstorm potential. It is not until the later evening hours on
Thursday we will see the potential for convection as stronger
forcing ascent arrives as a Pacific front moves in from the west.
This in addition to steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE values
greater than 2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear around 50 knots will
support an environment conducive for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm development Thursday evening into early Friday
morning for areas east of the I-27 corridor. Slightly cooler
temperatures and breezy conditions will follow the front late
Thursday into Friday with temperatures in the 70s and 80s in
addition to westerly winds around 20 to 30 mph.

An additional shortwave trough will enter the region Saturday, with
models in agreement on another dry-line set-up across our far
eastern column of counties. Expect storms to remain confined to the
Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle Saturday, given
the faster progression of the shortwave trough and the little to no
moisture return compared to previous days. Quiet and drier weather
returns Sunday as upper level ridging begins to build back into the
region. However, guidance continues to hint at another dry-line set-
up as we head into the middle of next week. Therefore, have opted to
keep NBM mentionable PoPs at this time given this is day 7 and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A low stratus deck will begin to develop early this morning,
most likely at CDS and PVW with a small chance for development as
far south as LBB. Mostly MVFR to IFR conditions will persist
through the morning hours, but there remains a chance for LIFR
conditions at CDS. Confidence was too low for IFR conditions as
far south as PVW, so no mention was given at this issuance. Amendments
will be made where necessary as the low clouds unfold through the
early morning hours. Tomorrow afternoon through late evening,
there is a slight chance for thunderstorm development anywhere
along and east of the I-27 corridor. Exact location of storm
initiation remains uncertain and therefore no mention in the TAF
was given at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A dryline is expected to position itself over the I-27 corridor
Thursday leaving the forecast area split between dry conditions to
the west and moist conditions to the east. Expect minimum RH values
as low as 9 to 12 percent across areas west of the I-27 corridor. In
addition, a Pacific front is expected to move into the region
Thursday afternoon allowing warm west-southwest winds around 20
to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph across the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains. These dry and
windy conditions in addition to ERCs in the 50th to 69th
percentile will lead to critical fire weather concerns Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11