Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221745
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR should prevail for the next 24 hours. However, there is a slim
chance of TSRA in the vicinity of any of the terminals through the
TAF period. In addition, there is the possibility of dusty
outflows moving through the KLBB and KPVW terminals even in the
absence of nearby t-storm activity, which could produce strong
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1026 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

UPDATE...
A compact upper-level disturbance sitting over the TX Panhandle is
drawing sub-tropical moisture northeast over our forecast area
today. The latest water vapor imagery shows mid-level moistening
along an axis running from the northwest Permian Basin northeast
into the eastern TX Panhandle, and is associated with a thickening
mid-level clouds deck seen in the visible imagery. The 12 UTC NAM
came in with quite a bit of QPF underneath this plume this
afternoon, while the HRRR is much less optimistic. We have gone
ahead and made a modest upward adjustment to PoPs and spread them
a bit farther east this afternoon, and also increased the sky
cover. Heavy downpours are possible, but at this point are still
expected to be localized.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR with a few TS expected this afternoon and evening, more so
near LBB and PVW than CDS given their proximity to an upper
disturbance. We expect TS to be too spotty, so will keep mention
out of the TAFs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows mid-level moisture is on the increase
from southwest to northeast across the forecast area early this
morning. Relatively dry air remains in place aloft across most of
the Rolling Plains which may help to suppress storm chances
through the day. The South Plains continues to see increasing
moisture aloft and with the storms we saw last night just
southwest of the forecast area, expect to see a bit more coverage
across the Caprock. Models continue to struggle with the
development of a shortwave across the Texas Panhandle and where
this feature will develop which may impact how much coverage we
will see this afternoon.

Sunday remains a bit more uncertain as the models continue to
struggle with the weak cold front that has been in the forecast
for the past several days. The NAM continues to push the front
into the southern Texas Panhandle by Sunday morning but all other
models keep it further north closer to the Oklahoma Panhandle. Any
southward push will depend on how much convection develops along
and behind the frontal boundary and how strong outflow from any
storms may be. Best chances for rain will remain across the
western South Plains Sunday afternoon where the best mid-level
moisture plume will be, then shift a bit further northeast across
the northern half of the forecast area with the possibility of the
front helping to increase coverage. Rain chances may also be
increased as upper-level flow increases through the day which may
steer any storms along the front further south into our northern
counties.

Precipitation chances are looking less likely for Monday now as
the ridge starts to reorganize and the models have the center of
the high pretty much near or over the forecast area. There could
still be some isolated storms as mid-level moisture may become
trapped under the ridge but the coverage remains highly uncertain
and have pulled PoPs for Monday as confidence is too low to
include. High temperatures on Monday also bumped back into the
low 90s for most of the Caprock compared to previous runs likely
due to increasing heights under the developing ridge. Tuesday
through the end of the forecast will remain dry as the ridge
remains stuck overhead but the somewhat good news is that the
ridge doesn`t look to increase in strength as it stays over the
area. Highs will be a few degrees above normal with low to mid 90s
for the Caprock and upper 90s to 101-102 for the Rolling Plains.
Lows will remain on the mild side as well, especially across the
Rolling Plains where some low-level moisture will remain in place
through next week.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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