Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 161136
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
536 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Persistent VFR to MVFR stratus at KCDS will continue to be the
primary aviation concern through late morning with VFR prevailing
for the remainder of this TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Surface winds will veer to the southwest this morning, helping to
erode the low stratus over the Rolling Plains by late morning.
Downsloping winds will allow highs to warm to near 70 this afternoon.
As a surface trough passes to the north, the pressure gradient tightens
and winds will increase and veer to become westerly Friday. The 700mb
height gradient suggests winds around 30 knots, however forecast soundings
show a cirrus layer around 300mb that could limit mixing some.
Winds Friday will be highest in the northwestern counties around 25-30 mph.
The strong downsloping warming component of the winds will help temperatures
rise to the mid to upper 80s. Forecast highs are near records on Friday which
is 85 for both Lubbock and Childress.

A shortwave through ejecting out of the Rockies will push a front through
the CWA early Saturday morning. Behind the front winds will be breezy out
of the northeast. Temperatures Saturday will 20-25 degrees cooler than Friday
and should decrease fire weather concerns for the weekend. Temperatures have
continued to trend cooler Saturday night with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Models diverge early next week. The GFS is zonal for the weekend then upper
level ridging builds with dry air in place through the week. The ECMWF develops
a closed surface low over the Panhandle early Tuesday and is the wetter of the
solutions. There are still a lot of details to be worked out, but kept PoP a
slight chance for Tuesday and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will drop RH to the low teens
Friday afternoon. Dry conditions combined with breezy winds 20-25
mph will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions
especially for the northwestern counties where winds will be the
strongest. Went with a Fire Weather Watch for counties west of the
Escarpment for Friday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036.

&&

$$

99/99/26



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