Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 100744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
244 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DECAYING SHOWERS THIS AM TO OUR NORTH AND WEST HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER
NIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE FA THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MAKE IT
INTO OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MORE OVERHEAD TODAY
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WARM YET SEASONAL. MORE BLOW OVER CLOUD COVER
FROM CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU. WITH THE HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TODAY SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE WHICH...ALONG WITH A LACK
OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY SURPRISE SHOWERS
FROM DEVELOPING. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PERHAPS PROVIDING THE AREA WITH
A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PROGGED TO EXPAND TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WHILST AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES NORTHWESTWARD FROM SERN
OLD MEXICO TOWARDS THE BAJA OF CALI DURING THE SAID PERIOD. THIS
INVERTED TROUGH MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THUS
OVERALL...NOT AFFECTING OUR SENSIBLE WX. BEING THAT THE UA RIDGE
WILL NOT BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL NOT BE OVERLY
OPPRESSIVE...THOUGH STILL WARM /AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
DECLINE/ WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 90S TOMORROW TO THE 90S AND
LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS BY SUNDAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
ERN AND NERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTN/EVENING TOMORROW-SUNDAY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...HOWEVER RATHER WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A RATHER BROAD UA LOW DIVING SE FROM
MANITOBA/ONTARIO TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HENCE PROVIDING THE MID-WEST AND NERN CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF UA TROUGHINESS. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE
FA TUESDAY /A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS/...AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONCURRENTLY...THE UA RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHTS SUGGESTS TEMPS COOLING BACK
INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE
ROBUST WRT TO QPF AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS EXHIBITING LINGERING PRECIP
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE CWA BECOMES ENCOMPASSED BY AN
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. NOT QUITE READY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP
PROSPECTS ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS DAY 5 AND BEYOND WE ARE
REFERRING TO. NONETHELESS CONFIDENCE IS /TENTATIVELY/ SLOWLY
INCREASING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO IF MODEL SOLUTIONS
PERSISTENTLY SHOW THIS EVOLUTION FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 10-12 PERCENT TUESDAY-FRIDAY WHICH IS STILL
BELOW MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  90  62  89 /   0  10   0   0   0
TULIA         92  65  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     91  65  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     91  65  90  65  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       93  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   91  64  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    91  66  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     97  71  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          94  68  93  68  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  72  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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