Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 302348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
KPVW AND KLBB LOWER FROM MVFR CURRENTLY TO AT LEAST IFR BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS BOTH TERMINALS. MAY SEE LIFR
OR EVEN VLIFR AT TIMES...BUT WILL WAIT TO PINPOINT ANY MENTION OF
THIS UNTIL NEXT ISSUANCE OR TWO. KCDS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY AS TO REACHING IFR
CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW OR OTHER FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  41  32  42 / 100  80  20  10
TULIA         35  42  35  44 / 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     36  43  36  46 / 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     36  45  36  48 / 100  90  20  10
LUBBOCK       37  45  36  49 / 100  90  30  10
DENVER CITY   36  49  38  48 / 100  80  20  10
BROWNFIELD    37  47  39  49 / 100  90  20  10
CHILDRESS     38  43  39  50 /  90  90  50  10
SPUR          38  45  40  50 / 100  90  40  10
ASPERMONT     40  48  43  51 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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