Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 281942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.


ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01


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