Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 151109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
609 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

MVFR at all TAF sites through period. Winds will start out
slightly stronger behind the cold front this morning before
tapering off this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

As forecasted, the Canadian cold front moved through the area over
night with notable temperature drops and stronger winds behind the
front. Spur, Olton, Reese Center and Childress all had peak wind
gusts in the mid to upper 40s.

Today will be a cooler and drier day area wide behind the front with
high temps not expected to warm past the 60s.  Winds will taper off
as the day progresses and surface high pressure continues to build
in behind the cold front. Will be sticking with the thinking of the
previous forecast and have continued to trended over night lows
below MOS for Monday morning. Areas north and west of Plainview
could see over night lows just below the freezing mark. Confidence
is higher but not high enough for a freeze watch for the far
western portions of the southern Panhandle for Monday morning.
Even given the clear skies, light winds and dry environment, model
soundings are suggesting that the cold layer is very shallow and
any sort of mixing could keep low temps well above freezing. Will
highlight more details in the HWO.

On Monday, northwest flow aloft takes over as an upper level high
pressure system builds in over the Sun Belt.  Essentially this will
bring about "happy weather" (dry conditions, warmer temps and
lots of sun) through mid week. By mid-week, the upper level ridge
begins to flatten ahead of an upper level shortwave trough. At the
surface this will translate into stronger northerly winds and an
increase in high clouds. Not much confidence in precip with the
shortwave but the longterm models are keying on a slight chance
therefore, the grids reflect this slight chance. The shortwave
exits the area early next Saturday and gives way to a more
significant upper Pacific trough that could bring another chance
of precip to the region.




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