Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210526
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be the
possibility of TSRA nearby each terminals. We`ve included a TEMPO
at KPVW and KLBB for the first hour (and three hours at KCDS) of
the forecast, but beyond that our confidence is too low to
highlight any period for a specific mention. Some brief low
visibility and lower ceilings may accompany any of the heavier
downpours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR. Isolated SHRA and some TS near CDS (less so near LBB) should
wane in the coming hours as the brunt of TS become focused near
the TX-NM state line. Some potential exists for this broader activity
to redevelop farther E overnight which could plague LBB and PVW
with intermittent TS through early Monday morning. This appears
unlikely for the time being, but TAF amendments are on standby.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge over the Four Corners region is in the process
of collapsing as it absorbs the upper level low that was to our
south yesterday. This is leading to increased surface pressure
falls farther to the west into eastern New Mexico which is
resulting in the shower and storm activity shifting farther west
as well. But there remains a mostly slight chance of convection
across the western South Plains near the NM/TX state line through
the overnight hours.

With those rain chances through the overnight come increased cloud
cover in the morning hours. Overall opportunities to watch the
effects of the eclipse for most of our area will be from
approximately 11am CDT until around 2pm CDT, with partly cloudy
skies during most of the event, though there could be some more
clouds earlier on, around 11am. Then we`ll see increasing clouds
along with increased coverage of showers and storms in our western
counties Monday evening into early Tuesday. By early Tuesday
afternoon we`ll begin feeling the effects of a slow surface cold
front moving south out of the Texas Panhandle and through the the
South Plains that should bring the best chances for on and off
showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning before the front pushes south toward the I20 corridor.

By the end of the week, a Tropical system in Central Mexico is
indicated by both the ECMWF and the GFS which will influence the
amount of moisture we see lift north from the monsoon fetch. The
longer that system holds together as it passes across Mexico the
more we`ll be cut off from best moisture through the weekend but
could then see plenty by the middle of next week. Models seem to
keep the system a bit too organized. So not a whole lot of
confidence toward the end of the forecast in temperatures and
moisture advection from the south. A big part of the uncertainty
that far out will be high temperatures for beginning of next week
which appear to remain well below seasonally normal values for
this time of year.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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