Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 072122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA LOW WHICH HAS PROGRESSED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS AFTN...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD
FRONT THAT HAS MOVED IN ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AFTN. A 1039 MB SFC RIDGE NORTH OF THE
REGION THAT IS DRIVING THE FRONT...HAS PROMOTED A BIT OF A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH HAS LED TO NRLY WIND SPEEDS
ON THE ORDER OF 15-25 MPH. WITH TEMPS STILL MANAGING TO WARM INTO
THE 50S AND 60S...THIS INSINUATES THAT THE CAA HAS NOT FILTERED IN
AS OF YET...BUT THAT WILL SOON CHANGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THUS NRLY SFC WINDS ARE POISED TO RELAX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
SFC RIDGE COMMENCES TO SETTLE NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE
BORDER BY TONIGHT. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT
HOW CHILLY WILL IT GET IS THE QUESTION. MOS GUIDANCE EXHIBITS
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S...AS SFC WINDS BACK TO THE NW WHICH
IS A BIT A WARMER WIND COMPONENT. HOWEVER...THE CAA WILL FINALLY
OOZE IN TONIGHT AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND
NWRN ZONES...LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WITH 20S ELSEWHERE SEEMS MORE BEFITTING.

TOMORROW...NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND THE BROAD UA LOW IMPINGES
ON THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA LOW BRUSHES
JUST EAST OF THE FA...IT WILL AID IN A SECONDARY FRONTAL
SURGE...WITH NRLY SFC WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE /OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER/ PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. WITH
THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING NEARBY...HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 50S. /29

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING TO OUR WEST ALL WEEK WILL FLATTEN AND
TRANSLATE OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE MORE
OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE EARLY NEXT MONDAY. WEATHER
SHOULD TREND MILDER WITH A FEW DAYS OF MODESTLY GUSTY WINDS BUT
NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANCE OTHERWISE. A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY MAY EDGE
SOUTH MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK TUESDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE REMAINING
IMPACT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS
EXPECTED MIDDAY THURSDAY. AND LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS SOMEHOW AGREE
WITH A YET STRONGER PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVELS MAY TEND TO MOISTEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY OFF THE CAPROCK. WE TRENDED DEWPOINTS
LOWER OTHERWISE AND MOSTLY SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS VEERED 20-FOOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 15-
25 MPH LATE THIS AFTN. DESPITE THIS WIND SHIFT...THE COLD AIRMASS
HAS NOT INFILTRATED THE REGION YET WHICH HAS LED TO TEMPS STILL
MANAGING TO WARM 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS SUCH...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE WHICH IS
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LOW...BUT DRY FUELS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL
VALIDATES A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WHICH IS STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
PM CST. TO FURTHER VALIDATE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...THE TAHOKA
SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED A GRASS FIRE SOUTHEAST OF TAHOKA LATE THIS
AFTN...AND A FEW LOCALES NEAR THAT AREA HAVE TICKED OFF 70 MINUTES
OR LESS OF RED FLAG MINUTES. SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECLINE AND HUMIDITIES WILL COMMENCE TO RISE. TOMORROW...BREEZY 20-
FOOT NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN BY THE AFTN HOURS /15-20 MPH OR
SO/...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL
WARM TO ONLY SEASONAL NORMS AND THUS HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AOA 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...FUELS ARE DRY. PROOF OF
THIS WERE THE GRASS FIRES YESTERDAY 3 MILES NORTH OF ANTON WHICH
BURNED APPROXIMATELY 250-275 ACRES BEFORE IT WAS CONTAINED...AND OF
COURSE THE GRASS FIRE TODAY NEAR TAHOKA. WITH THAT IN MIND...A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED. /29

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...POSSIBLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS. BEYOND TUESDAY...
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING LIKELY WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE
ELEVATED DAYS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BOTH SEEM CAPABLE OF SUCH. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05


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