Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 261728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Gusty winds will decrease late this afternoon with VFR conditions


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

The two biggest changes with this forecast package involved scaling
back PoPs Thursday through Sunday, and warming max temps a bit
these same days. These changes reflect the recent shift in all
models to delay the departure of the subtropical high from the
local area until Sunday night - a departure that was originally
scheduled 48 hours earlier in previous days.

Else, the story remains unchanged as a cold front (currently near
the South Platte River of CO and NE) should edge south to the
northern TX Panhandle tonight, before stalling near I-40 tomorrow.
A pressure trough running from about Carlsbad to Dumas later today
could play host to a few high based storms that graze our NW
zones, but a stout 5960 meter 500 mb high over the region should
keep these instances few and far between. High temps are still
expected to reach their peak of the week today before the upper
high weakens 20 to 30 meters tomorrow and wobbles west of the
South Plains. Barring convective outflows adding momentum to the
aforementioned front, the potential for the front to push into our
northern zones on Thursday appears too slim to justify more than
slight chance PoPs for our northern row of counties.

As the upper high returns to the South Plains on Friday, the
remnant frontal boundary in the Panhandle is likely to wash out or
even slowly retreat north ahead of increasing subsidence. Gut
feeling says our low-end PoPs across our northern zones on Friday
are wishful thinking, but until the front`s behavior is more
definitive we`ll keep accounting for uncertainty. Saturday shows
little change with the upper high`s position or strength atop the
South Plains, but a weak backdoor front over western OK looks to
offer a better focus for storms near our NE zones, before expanding
west on Sunday as the upper high finally relinquishes its grip on
the region. This westward shift of the high occurs in response to
a ridge rider trough/falling heights over the Northern Rockies
that proceeds to open the door to active NW flow for the southern
High Plains by early next week. Pattern from Sun night through
midweek still shows promise for episodic MCSs locally and near or
below normal high temps.




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