Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 210923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
323 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A warm and generally uneventful weather day is on tap today, as an
upper level ridge axis just to our west moves over the Texas South
Plains region later today, then shifts east tonight. Westerly flow
aloft probably will yield some thin high clouds tonight. Solutions
this morning show potential for moderately gusty west to northwest
winds across the southwest corner of the South Plains briefly mid to
late this morning with mixing. Otherwise, we are looking for wind
speeds today mostly under 10 mph. A surface low pressure trough
tonight will allow winds to return to the south or southwest, still
mostly under 10 mph. Guidance temperatures still on track today for
mid to upper 70s, or 15 to 20 degrees above average. Relatively mild
will continue tonight, although we are siding with the lower end of
guidance due to light wind and dry air. RMcQueen

The long term forecast will feature an extended period of warm and
windy conditions leading to several days of fire weather.

On Wednesday, a short wave trough will dig across the Sierra
Nevada mountains. This will bring the start of stronger winds
aloft along with surface lee cyclogenesis. Wednesday will be the
first day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. Thursday
is still expected to be the windiest day of them all. Models have
been trending farther north with the short wave coming out of the
Rockies. It is now depicted in models moving out over western
Kansas. This will bring the strongest winds to the Texas
Panhandle. However, a secondary wind max at 700mb will exist over
the Permian Basin which may result in a relatively minimum of
winds over the South Plains. Fortunately, for Thursday the low
level thermal ridge into the Big Country will not be co-located
with the 500mb wind max in the Panhandle. A Pacific cold front on
Thursday night will suppress the thermal ridge on Friday. But wind
speeds aloft will further increase on Friday leading to another
breezy day.

A cold front is forecast to back door into the region late Friday
into early Saturday bringing a brief end to extreme warmth. Lee
troughing will return by late Saturday as a surface ridge quickly
slides east into the southeastern US. Strong winds look to return on
Monday and Tuesday keeping the fire weather theme going strong.


Elevated to critical fire weather conditions can be expected for
several days over the next week. Wednesday will begin to see very
warm temperatures combined with increasing winds. Thursday is
anticipated to have the highest impacts with critical conditions
expected over a wide area. An upper level storm system will bring
strong winds along with very dry and warm surface air. Friday will
see cooler temperatures following a cold front Thursday night but
will continue to see very dry air along with breezy winds.
Additional elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be
possible early next week as another favorable pattern may develop.


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for TXZ021>042.



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