Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 280448
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR with light winds outside of storms. Scattered TS moving SW
from Abernathy to Floydada at 1140 PM should impact LBB in the
coming hours, so a TEMPO is active here thru 07Z. Lubbock radar
is detecting some strong downdrafts/winds with these storms and
gusts to 52 mph were measured earlier Memphis.

Various outflow boundaries could focus additional TS thru early
morning just about anywhere as far north as CDS, but TAFs will be
updated to reflect this should confidence improves.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 146 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Convective initiation has already occurred this afternoon, firing
near a surface trough located roughly from Clovis to Borger,
supported by surface dew point temperatures in the mid to upper
50s and, as evident from water vapor imagery, a swath of mid/upper
level moisture. Additional popcorn type showers are dotting areas
of the Rolling Plains and South Plains within a general weakly-
capped and moist air mass. Similar to the last couple of days
coverage should remain isolated with slightly better coverage
associated with the more organized convection coming south from
the Panhandle. With diurnal heating the main driver here we should
see a significant decrease in coverage to outright dissipation
with sunset.

The upper ridge will expand eastward on Thursday, and with it, mid
and upper level air noted on water vapor imagery. As a result models
returning to warmer and drier pattern. MOS seems to have a handle on
high temperatures while mentionable rain chances look to be limited
to the southern Rolling Plains where deeper moisture will linger.

LONG TERM...
The medium range forecast will be characterized by warm and humid
weather continuing and only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms...most of that being early in the extended period.
From Thursday night right into the weekend, the upper ridge centered
over the Southwestern Conus and Great Basin will keep northerly flow
aloft across West Texas with only isolated or widely scattered
diurnal thunderstorms. A seasonally significant disturbance is
depicted moving southeast around the ridge from the central Plains
into OK late Thursday night. That system has the best chance to
produce some scattered thunder across the southeastern Panhandle
into Friday morning. Also, outflow may play a part in keeping the
chance for precipitation a little higher across the north...ie the
southern Panhandle counties.

As we move into the weekend, the ridge very subtly begins to expand
to the east with rising heights to the north of us into the central
Plains. That will make precipitation harder to come by, with the
eventual establishment of 595 dm heights close to the mid Miss
valley, in addition to a secondary high center near the 4 Corners.
The result of this for W TX will be slowly increasing temperatures
and decreasing instability. Also the weak pressure gradient and
corresponding light surface wind regime that we have enjoyed will be
replaced by breezy afternoons even as early as Saturday as surface
lee side troffing helps to ramp up S/SE winds. Pops will dwindle
into the weekend and for most of next week under this ridge with the
best albeit low chance pops for the western South Plains and
southwestern Panhandle as a monsoonal flow pattern becomes better
established. Temps should be within a few degrees of 100 for much of
the period on the Caprock with even warmer readings above 100 for
our lower elevations to the east of Lubbock. James

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93



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