Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221933

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
233 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Cool high pressure continues to build into West Texas this afternoon
on breezy northerly winds, with 19Z temperatures only in the 50s and
lower 60s. The surface ridge will settle over the area tonight
providing light and variable winds, clear skies and cool
temperatures. Locations north and northwest of Lubbock will likely
see temperatures dip into the 33 to 36 degree range by early Sunday
morning, bringing the risk of areas of frost development there.
Hence a frost advisory will be issued for this area effective from
midnight to 9 am. Elsewhere lows will be mostly in the upper 30s and
low 40s. The light winds will gradually come around to the south on
Sunday as the surface ridge exits to the east and troughing is
renewed in the lee of the Rockies beneath a progressive upper level
ridge. Sunday afternoon will be beautiful with full insolation and
temperatures recovering into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Through Thursday the models remain pretty consistent and in pretty
good agreement, thus few meaningful changes in the Monday through
Thursday part of the forecast. Low-amplitude upper ridging Monday
will give way to near-zonal flow with a slight, but increasing,
cyclonic curvature. A shortwave trough will move through this
zonal flow across the High Plains of Kansas and the OK/TX
Panhandles. This will support the movement of a cold front
southward through the forecast area Tuesday night and may also
support showers moving across the Panhandle with those showers
likely staying north of the forecast area. On Wednesday another
upper trough moves over the intermountain West with low level flow
across the southern Plains veering to southeast. That could help
the development of high terrain storms develop over southern CO
and northern NM with an eastward steering flow moving them across
the Panhandle, possibly brushing across the northern tier of the
forecast area. As part of the energy ejects from the shortwave
trough Thursday, additional development across the Panhandle will
again be possible, also likely staying north of the forecast area.

The forecast for Friday and Saturday remain low confidence as
models cannot converge on a solution yet. The 12Z runs remain
quite divergent with the evolution of shortwave energy closing
into a low as it moves out of the intermountain West. The GFS now
back to a southern 4-corners location while the ECM remains a
middle of the road central Plains solution. Will maintain a slight
chance of precip in the Friday through Saturday solution.

Finally, Monday and Tuesday look to be quite warm to borderline
hot with breezy to windy condtions. That adds up to a fire weather
potential. At this time Tuesday looks more favorable than Monday.




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