Area Forecast Discussion
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494
FXUS64 KLUB 241739
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR will be the rule through the TAF cycle with mostly clear skies.
Breezy westerly winds at KLBB and KPVW this afternoon will weaken
and back to southerly this evening before veering back to the
southwest late tonight and then westerly (and increasing to
breezy levels) on Thursday. Winds will remain lighter at KCDS
through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Who`s ready for some heat? The coolness of yesterday is done. gone.
no more.

RAP analysis this morning shows the low responsible for our rain and
cool weather the past few days moving south through Iowa. This
feature is expected to take a southeasterly turn today, cutting its
influence to the eastern CONUS. Over the Desert Southwest, a ridge
is building, which we will experience the eastern edge of today.
Temperatures will be markedly warmer today, but that will be nothing
compared to Thursday when southwest flow both at the surface and
aloft advects copious amounts of hot, dry air. Triple digit highs
will be prevalent across much of the South and Rolling Plains
Thursday, and combined with RH values in the single digits, fire
weather concerns could be locally elevated. Friday will be much of
the same, maybe a degree or two cooler, but still hot and dry.
Models try to bring a weak frontal boundary into the Panhandle,
though, it is doubtful it will make it far enough south before
retreating to have much impact on our forecast area. The front is
given an extra punch from a passing trough on Saturday evening, and
this time it is expected to make it through the entire forecast area
bringing highs on Sunday back to more seasonal norms. Unfortunately,
it appears there will be too much dry air in place at FROPA for rain
chances to develop. Any meaningful precip chances don`t appear until
early next week, though, models are in a bit of disagreement on next
week`s unsettled pattern.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/23



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