Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 150351
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
951 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.AVIATION...
Cold front is still on track to push through around 15-16Z Monday
morning. Expect cigs to fall lower than current TAF mention an
hour or two after FROPA. Next TAF issuance will hone in on just how
low they will go.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The NW flow pattern aloft that we have have been experiencing the
past several days will begin to break down tomorrow. This is thanks
to a strong upper level low dropping out of Canada and settling
across the Great Lakes region. Thus, the forecast is still on track
for a strong cold front pushing southward and through the southern
Plains Monday. The front will be accompanied by very strong cold air
advection and as a result temperatures Monday evening into Tuesday
evening will be even cooler than previously expected. Lows Monday
night will drop into the very low teens. Recovery will be minimal
Tuesday with highs only reaching the upper 20s. Then Tuesday night
very cold low temps are expected again (9-14 degrees area wide).

As mentioned in the previous forecast, models continue to struggle
with precipitation development. Deep moisture and strong isentropic
lift continue to be lacking as the system moves through the region.
The best moisture will exist at the mid layers with a brief window
of isentropic lift behind the front. Thus, drizzle/freezing drizzle
with perhaps a few flakes of snow could develop. Due to the fact
that the chances of this even happening are minimal the forecast
will continue to remain dry.

Cold air remains in place Wednesday as a quick hitting shortwave
trough moves across the region. Thursday and Friday the area
gradually warms as upper level ridging develops over the region
ahead of the next storm system. Currently, the next storm system
with accompanying cold front is expected to traverse the area
Saturday into Sunday. Saturday afternoon, just ahead of the system
and front, near critical Fire Weather conditions will be present
across the Caprock. Thus, an RFD may be warranted Saturday
afternoon. Models have come more into agreement with the track of
the storm system for the latter part of the weekend. Both the GFS
and ECMWF now have an open wave moving across the FA creating breezy
to windy conditions over the weekend. Models continue to disagree on
the intensity, timing and precipitation of the system. GFS keeps the
pattern dry and is quicker and cooler. The ECMWF, on the other hand,
remains more bullish with the precipitation, warmer and slower. Will
keep the extended forecast dry for now due to the variability in the
models.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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