Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 022331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ADDED LOW END POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO HANDLE
THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING THOUGH
WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR TRENDS AS THE SMALL COMPLEX APPROACHES
COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS. A LESS THAN 5 PCT CHANCE OF TSTMS
AFFECTING KLBB THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. VIS SAT SHOWS
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NM THAT IS
SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD RATHER SLOWLY /8 KTS OR LESS/ DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP PREVENT CONVECTION FROM MAKING IT TO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS OUTFLOW SHOULD EASILY OUTRUN THE STORMS.
WHAT MAY PLAY A PART IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD BE A DRYLINE
FEATURE ACROSS EASTERN NM NEAR THE TX STATE LINE WHICH IS SHOWING UP
ON SURFACE OBS AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. VIS SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINE BUT IS STAYING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN HEIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CU IN EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY AND NORTH
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY. THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
LINE IS THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH RUN TO RUN THROUGH
THE DAY. VISUAL OB VIA THE LOCAL OFFICE WEBCAM HAS SHOW THIS LINE TO
BE ANYTHING BUT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATM.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOW/MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT THICKNESSES INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A GREAT BIT WITH
HIGHS TOMORROW...94 VS 99. HIGHS WILL STILL BE KEPT JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE FLEXING ITS MUSCLES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 0.40-1.00 INCH/ THURSDAY-MONDAY...THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE PROVES TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALTHOUGH...A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON ANY GIVEN DAY IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
PENDING ADEQUATE SFC CONVERGENCE...BUT A PRECIP MENTION WILL
REMAIN VOID ATTM. FURTHERMORE...ONE WOULD THINK THAT TEMPS WILL
SOAR TO UNBEARABLE WARMTH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UA
RIDGE...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THIS REGION HAS RECEIVED LAST MOTH /SEASONAL NORMS OF UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AS DEPICTED BY THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION/. THE 12Z MEX
GUIDANCE TEMPS IS VERY SIMILAR...WHICH IS A QUITE A CHANGE FROM
WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS SHOWING /MIDDLE-UPPER 90S/.

BY EARLY TO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
PACIFIC UA LOW BEARING DOWN ON CNTRL/SRN CALI AND ROUNDING THE UA
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THUS TRANSLATING TO THE NRN/HIGH PLAINS. AS
SUCH...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEAK DOWN A BIT WHILST
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A PROGGED TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING NE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI...IT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID
IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT JUST ENOUGH FOR PERHAPS STORMS TO
RETURN TO THE REGION /PERHAPS INITIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
ZONES/. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IS A BIT HARD TO
SAY BEING THIS IS DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  94  61  93 /   0  10   0  10
TULIA         63  92  63  92 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     63  91  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     64  95  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  93  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   63  96  63  94 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  96  64  93 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     67  92  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     68  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/26/26



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.