Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 251252

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
752 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

VFR will continue through the TAF period. There are
much less chances for storms this afternoon so any mention has
been left out of the TAF at the moment.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

Tall anticyclone was drawing closer from eastern NM early this
morning and should be situated squarely atop the forecast area by
midday. For a change, we had a notable dearth of nocturnal precip
which is proof of warming mid-level temps and deeper subsidence
preceding the high. This stable theme should extend into the
afternoon, especially as the high intensifies an extra 20 or so
meters at 500 mb. A few sensitive CAMs generate spotty diurnally-
driven storms today under the high, but with declining PWATs and
warming lapse rates, the cons outweigh the pros so we`ll keep PoPs
dry for now.

As soon as Wednesday morning, the upper high will begin retreating
west back to NM while elongating in a zonal fashion roughly along
I-40. Easterly mid-level fetch south of this zonal ridge axis would
normally moisten our area, but instead further drying of the column
is expected. This drying is already evident along the Texas Coast
per PWATs on both ROABs and GOES-R imagery. Such drying will only
bolster deep mixing and push highs to their climax for the week.

A more amplified and unsettled pattern unfolds later this week into
weekend as the subtropical high redevelops NW into the Great Basin,
while leaving a NW-SE ridge axis loitering over portions of our
domain. Models and ensembles are in good agreement with this broader
scale transition to NW flow for the southern Great Plains, with even
some consistency shared down to the mesoscale level several days
out. These details are comprised of a cold front stalling out across
the central and northern Panhandle from late Wed through Thu,
followed by a more definitive front of the backdoor variety Sun into
Mon under a stronger NW flow regime. Both of these boundaries are
more than suitable for episodic storms considering improving PWATs
in the wake of the upper high. However, the lingering NW-SE upper
ridge over all but our N-NE zones from Wed night-Sat looks stout
enough to ward off storms over much of the South Plains. Overall
demise of this ridge by Sun and beyond looks quite favorable for
more than one regional scale precip event under active NW flow.
High temps on Sun and Mon were nudged lower while PoPs were raised
inline with Superblend given the favorable pattern. This pattern
could easily support nightly organized MCS events - perhaps not
too dissimilar from what we saw earlier this month.




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