Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242342 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
642 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.  Jordan


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

Hot and dry with breezy or low-end windy conditions will dominate
through Saturday. Flow will remain veered from the west-southwest
as an upper ridge axis passes to the east early Thursday, and flow
becomes enhanced by wave activity through the northern Rockies and
Great Basin. Few overall changes during this period, with guidance
temperatures again favoring highs Thursday near 100 degrees for
many areas, and only a bit less Friday and Saturday, mainly as
heights fall slightly across northwestern areas in particular. A
wave dipping into southwest Wyoming late Friday will enhance the
mid flow further, and may be capable of pulling a thin and narrow
band of mid level moisture out of northwest Mexico, through the
Trans Pecos, and into the South Plains. With a strong elevated
mixed layer (EML) still overhead, and minimal (if any) instability
it seems unlikely for the development of any significant mid
level cloud growth, but something to keep half an eye on for now
as mid level lapse rates will be quite steep so downdraft
potential would be elevated. A weak frontal surge out of the
panhandle late Thursday night and early Friday still may sag at
least into northern zones, but should wash out of most (or all) of
the area by Friday afternoon.

That Wyoming wave will translate east through the Central Rockies
Saturday and into the central plains early Sunday, sending a
potentially outflow enhanced cold front southward through the area
Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Remnants of the EML will
still be in force with dry pre-frontal air not helping any for
thunderstorm chances along the front, until perhaps edging into
or just out of our far southeast corner early Sunday morning. We
have a dry forecast still going for this event. Relatively cooler
and more moist lower levels will follow, though the best
thunderstorm chances will focus along that front late Sunday into
early Monday, well south of our area. Northwest flow aloft will
follow Sunday night and Monday, and may eventually allow a few
storms to approach out of northeast New Mexico, though given very
uncertain inflow and instability, this is a low probability event.

The front to the south will eventually lift back north by late
Tuesday and Wednesday, with much better lower level moisture and
instability returning, but also uncertain dynamic support with a
weak upper ridge to the west and generally weak mid level flow and
shear. Another wave or two may pass by in northwest flow around
mid to late next week, perhaps energizing another frontal push
southward which finally may result in more respectable
thunderstorm chances, but that`s pretty far off. Still, something
to consider in the very long range by early June. RMcQueen

Elevated fire danger levels are possible Thursday and Friday as
gusty winds and hot and very dry air overspread the area. Grasses
still seem mostly green but owing to general dryness in the past
month or so on the Caprock, it`s possible there could be patches
of burnable grass. The weather factors of strong wind, low
humidity, and well above normal temperatures point towards
critical fire danger, but given suspicions of mostly unresponsive
fuels, think elevated fire danger will be more appropriate.




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