Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 240920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
420 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The same system that got us with winds and thunderstorms yesterday
has not shown the last of itself yet. This very wound up system will
move southeast across the Texas Panhandle today bringing very strong
winds again although from the west or northwest for today. Deep
mixing to around 700mb will occur today. Winds at this level are
progged to be around 55 to 60kt extending from northeast New Mexico
into the South Plains. This will lead to the strongest winds in the
southwestern Texas Panhandle into the central South Plains. In
general, MOS guidance performed well yesterday with the winds which
boosts confidence in the MOS wind forecasts for today. This will
lead to fairly widespread high winds with advisory level winds
elsewhere. Moisture will wrap around the low today. However, this
will likely only create mid level cloud cover. It could also hamper
some of the aforementioned atmospheric mixing across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle. A break from the heat will finally
occur today with temperatures around seasonal averages.

A progressive wave pattern will continue with an upper ridge
Saturday followed by a vigorous though less closed off upper
trough passing Sunday. Flow will amplify and slow next week with
a western U.S. trough developing, sending our way a deepening low
pressure system along with increasing rain and thunder chances
by the middle of next week.

Saturday morning will see lingering northwest flow, and perhaps
still some breezy conditions especially eastern areas, before an
upper ridge moves overhead. Saturday should turn into an
excellent day with temperatures returning slightly above normal.
Winds will return Sunday as the next trough steers to the north,
and a mid and lower level wind maximum appears to favor the
southern South Plains. Wind speeds appear mostly in the 20 to 30
mph range. Moisture return as noted previously appears almost non-
existent. Yet warmer temperatures Sunday will be short-lived as a
cold front slides southward late in the day. Monday will see
another upper ridge passing, relaxed height and pressure
gradients, and slightly cooler temperatures.

Rain chances will ramp up starting Tuesday with solutions in
agreement on a strong upper low crossing the southern Rockies en
route to the southern High Plains by Wednesday. Track of course is
cursory at this point, which ultimately plays into confidence of
rain and thunder chances. Backing flow in advance should be
adequate for precipitation to initiate Tuesday, and depending on
track could prolong chances into early Thursday. Still quite
early, but there appears to be potential for a significant
rainfall event; temperatures currently favor all-liquid phase.


An upper level storm system moving across the Texas Panhandle will
create very strong winds across the entire region today. However,
temperatures will be much cooler following a cold front from early
this morning. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages
keeping prolonged critical fire weather conditions from occurring.
The southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains will see the
lowest relative humidity values this afternoon with expected values
between 16 and 20 percent.

Elevated to critical fire weather appears likely for Sunday, with
strongest wind and lowest humidity favoring the southern South
Plains and Rolling Plains. Wind speed forecast remains a bit
uncertain whether will be enough for Red Flag conditions, though
the pattern strongly suggests this. Stay tuned. RMcQueen


Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
evening for TXZ033>044.

High Wind Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this evening
for TXZ021>032.



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