Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 251733
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR expected next 24 hours outside of convective activity.
Observational trends and forecast model data both point to an
increasing likelihood of thunderstorms across West Texas. Without
any substantive focusing mechanism expected, the convection will
be driven by pulse-type activity which propagates (mainly
southward) via storm downdraft modes. At present, the best chance
of convective initiation appears to be WSW and ESE of the KLBB
terminal. Some enhancement is seen up toward AMA, but confidence
in affecting any given terminal for a 50-100% likelihood of
convection is not there yet. Alas, there is a 20-30% risk of
thunderstorms developing later today, particularly between 00Z and
09Z but exactly where these will affect remains nebulous. Check
density altitude.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
We may finally yet see some convective activity which has skirted
around the region for the past week or so. A stronger signal for
convection exists for this evening as the upper level ridge to the
west moves far enough west to allow mid level moisture to advect
into the region. Any large scale surface boundaries will be lacking.
However, more subtle outflow boundaries will likely exist from
convection in the Panhandle early this morning. This may bring storm
chances farther south than what models currently show. Low level
theta-e values will be on the increase again bringing another
cumulus field although will likely be rather flat. Best chances for
storms will be in the Panhandle again extending into the northwest
South Plains this evening. Thickness values will begin a downward
slide today cooling temperatures a few degrees for this afternoon.

LONG TERM...
The center of the upper ridge will remain to our west Tuesday
through Friday or Saturday before building back eastward over the
weekend into the first of next week. While it remains to our west,
atmospheric moisture with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will remain in place along with moderated afternoon temperatures.
Without any clear cut surface boundaries, picking out the periods
with the highest rain chance remains difficult. North or northwest
flow aloft should cause thunderstorm complexes which do form to
move southeast or southward. We expect the period from Tuesday
though Thursday to have the highest rain chances. By Friday or
Saturday the ridge is likely to start building back eastward and
rain chances should decrease.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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