Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 122322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
522 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions next 24 hours. A cold front will bring a northerly
wind shift through the terminals around midday on Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

Atmosphere will undergo a significant change from the blocking
pattern over the western Conus that we`ve seen for the past few days
with a more progressive pattern evolving. Shortwave will round west
coast upper ridge early Wednesday and then dive rapidly southeastward
toward the Southern Plains late Wed/early Thursday across the
central Rockies phasing with lagging northern stream wave. Dry air
Wednesday and light to moderate west winds will result in elevated
fire weather conditions and a small risk for initial attack fires.
This merger of northern and southern stream systems will result
in a fairly sharp, full latitude positively tilted upper trof
which will swing across the region Thursday night. The result of
this in terms of sensible weather for West Texas will be an
initial front Wednesday afternoon with a reinforcing surge on
Thursday. Some decent upper forcing with this shortwave may produce
some flurries across the SW Panhandle but decent moisture is
short lived. Non zero probabilities for trace amounts of snow
(flurries mainly) will exist across the SW Panhandle and perhaps
into the NW South Plains. Low impact event however.

Turning warmer Saturday with increasing W/SW winds ahead of next
similar shortwave moving southeast toward the region. Rapid
cyclogenesis in SE Colorado will result in strong winds, low
humidities, and a further drying of fine fuels. That will present
an elevated fire weather risk for Saturday with a isolated
significant fire threat as per the latest Southern Plains
Wildfire group graphic. Another front with this system late
Saturday with a small chance of very light precipitation Sunday
into Monday morning - another brief window for sensible weather in
an otherwise drier atmosphere lacking deeper layer moisture. A
warming trend commences next week as a more zonal W/SW flow
pattern resumes. Beyond this forecast period...medium range models
show some similarity with large scale features as deep upper
trough evolves over the western Conus with amplifying ridge Gulf
of Alaska turning flow southward from northern Canada farther east
with some colder/modified arctic air potentially affecting the
area toward the holiday weekend. Long way off...but a weak signal
in the noise is there and has been persistent. Will certainly
become more clear in days ahead. James




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