Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 140443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1043 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the morning. There is some
possibility of low clouds near KCDS and KLUB towards daybreak.
However, they should be too brief and remain mostly to the east of
KCDS and south of KLUB terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018/

The focus this afternoon continues to be on the potential for
precipitation Thursday night into Friday time frame. Overall not
much in the way of change was made this afternoon. Models are in
good agreement with a positively-tilted trough diving southward
through the Great Basin and West Coast into the Desert Southwest
by end of day Thursday then ejecting a low-amplitude short wave
from the main trough Friday. A fairly narrow band of precipitation
is expected to set up from Far West Texas east-northeastward into
southern Oklahoma. This band seems to be forced by upper level
forcing generated by the ejecting trough and an associated jet
streak stretching across the central Plains while in mid-levels a
band of frontogenetical forcing is progged to move across the
southern High Plains. There may a be an overlap in these forcing
mechanisms late Thursday night through Friday before both move off
to the east and southeast of the forecast area. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty where this potentially only 60-90 mile
wide band of precip sets up with current thinking favoring areas
between Lubbock and Midland. Also of a negative factor is how much
dry air moves in behind a fairly strong cold front that will move
through the forecast area early Friday. Have kept precip chances
mainly in a range from 20-40 percent through the Thursday night
through Friday night range.

There are two other items of note. The first is another, albeit
weaker and more transient, wave that ejects from the lingering
trough to our west. This is currently progged to occur toward
Monday night with the potential for a brief shot at precip for the
southern Rolling Plains Monday night. Confidence is quite low with
this scenario and have kept the mention out of the forecast at
this time.

The second item is warm, dry and breezy conditions likely to
develop on the Caprock, possibly as early as Wednesday afternoon
with a better chance Thursday afternoon. Fire weather concerns
creep back into the picture, although nothing more than a brief
period of elevated fire weather is currently expected either day.




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