Area Forecast Discussion
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801
FXUS64 KLUB 210557
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1257 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunder chances are the only concern at this time, both in the
near term and at the end of the period. Small batches of thunder
near KCVS and north of KAMA this morning, the former is petering
out and should stay to the west of the terminals. The latter may
be the greater threat for KPVW and/or KCDS, but hi-res models at
this time suggest them weakening as they move south through the
Panhandle. Will leave mention out with this issuance. Low clouds
are not expected this morning, unlike the last several days.
Thunder may roll in from the north or northwest late Wednesday
evening, but chances to low to mention beyond this discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 953 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

UPDATE...
A mini MCS moving S-SE across srn Quay and Curry County NM will
brush western Parmer and possibly Bailey Counties in the next hour
or so. Strong wind gusts will be the main impact from this storm
but rain may also move in behind the gust front. We`ve added some
low PoPs in this area through midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.
There is a small possibility that the current TSRA activity
stretching from northeast NM to southwest KS could eventually
approach KPVW and/or KCDS early Wednesday morning. More likely
though, outflow from this dying activity could push through one
or more terminals, bringing a northerly wind shift - but speeds
should remain under 12 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

For the first few days, the upper level high off to our west will
remain entrenched.  This feature is well defined in satellite
imagery through the observational data suggests that the flow may be
a bit more northwesterly across the panhandle than the models might
suggest.  By this afternoon, we should see some storms fire across
NERN NM though indications suggest that convection should remain NW
of our CWFA.  Still, a 10-15 shot of storms approaching Parmer
county seems reasonable. A minor ripple in the mean flow will skirt
well north of the region on Wednesday as a tropical system is
progged to approach the upper Texas coast.  The currently progged
track of the system is expected to have little impact on our weather
as we already are under the influence of a respectable high pressure
system.  Perhaps if it tracks a bit further west, we could see
increased subsidence and thus higher temps later this week. There
certainly is a westward trend with the potential TC and an even
further westerly solution is indicated by the NMM.  Weakly forced
systems are difficult to forecast and so those uncertainties remain.
 Still, at this point, there aren`t any solid indications that
tropical moisture would be headed our way. As mentioned in the
overnight discussion, the higher dewpoints expected later this week
would tend to keep highs in check.  All in all, Wed/Thu seem to be
typical summertime values in terms of temp and dewpoint.

Guidance has picked up on the potential for NW flow storms Wednesday
evening though it`s intrusion depth into our CWFA remains in
question.  Areas NW of a line from Denver City to Happy appear to
have the best shot at seeing evening thunderstorms as they roll off
the Raton Mesa. Some weak signals appear Thursday evening to our
northwest, but indications are we`ll remain largely dry.

Friday continues to look to be our next shot at cool(er) weather as
a more substantive trough axis passes across the northern plains.
This will help drive a cold front into our region.  Like last
weekend, post-frontal cloudiness and light precip will be possible.
The first aforementioned trough does seem a bit weak to drive things
as far south as indicated in some of the guidance. Another deeper
trough swings by to our north on Saturday night increasing
northwesterly flow through the latter extended and shunting the
southwestern high into western Sonora or Baja California Norte.  The
ECM is really the only solution indicating the presence of a second
surface frontal surge.  Into early next week, the GFS seems
substantially overzealous with pops along a NW/SE oriented frontal
boundary and so will trim POPs accordingly.  This is primarily
triggered by low level moisture values significantly above those of
other guidance and, more importantly, higher than expected given the
synoptic regime.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



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