Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 020002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCDS...KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KPVW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY MAY APPROACH THE
VICINITY OF TERMINAL LATE IN THE FORECAST. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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