Area Forecast Discussion
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387
FXUS64 KLUB 261720
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Though we expect VFR to be the prevailing conditions throughout
the TAF period, as with yesterday, we do have a chance of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms. As these will be fueled by daytime
heating, initiation timing and location cannot be pinpointed with
great enough confidence to include in TAFs attm. Expect AMDs
if/when it looks like convection could impact a site.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. However,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely in the region this
afternoon and tonight and could briefly cause significant weather
around the terminal locations. The timing and placement of
thunderstorm activity does not allow high enough chances to
warrant putting mention in the TAFs at this point.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Will not make significant changes to the previous forecast which
calls for moderated afternoon temperatures from near 90 in the
southwest Panhandle to the upper 90s in the Rolling Plains and a
chance of thunderstorms. Surface wind flow will be variable in
direction and weak this morning becoming more easterly during the
afternoon. Wind flow at 500 to 700 mb will remain out of the north
to northeast, so thunderstorms which do form should move slowly
southward.

LONG TERM...
With West Texas remaining on the east side of an upper level
ridge, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through
much of this week. Mid level moisture has finally made it back to
the region and will hang around with the center of the upper ridge
well west of the area. The convective activity will develop within
this mid level moisture atop of well mixed boundary layer air
during the afternoon hours. Also in consideration will be remnant
outflow boundaries from previous day convection which can act as a
source for initiation but is not forecastable at this point in
time. A few short waves look to rotate around the upper ridge
boosting convection chances this week although it is still
uncertain if any day in particular will see better chances. Storms
will generally shut down sometime early this weekend with the
upper ridge repositioning itself to the east. A series of
progressive short waves troughs moving along the US/Canada border
will allow surface troughing and breezy winds to return this
weekend.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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