Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190112 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
812 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The severe weather threat has ended across the forecast area for
the remainder of the evening. We still anticipate isolated to
scattered t-storm development along the dryline early Friday
morning, which should be located near or just east of a line from
Post to Paducah. Also, the incoming cold front from the north on
Friday is faster in the latest guidance. This front may enhance
the potential for t-storms in the southern Rolling Plains around
early afternoon, or if it is even faster, the threat may shift
south of our forecast area.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

VFR should prevail at the terminals for the next 24 hours, with a
couple sticking points. First, low ceilings are possible Friday
morning at KCDS, and even a low chance at KPVW. Also, there is a
small chance of TSRA in the vicinity of KCDS much of Friday.
Finally, we have low confidence in the wind forecast, as a cold
front may move south from the TX Panhandle early Friday, only to
retreat back to the north during the day.

Small update to shift the evening PoPs a bit east to account for
the dryline position. The dryline is currently east of Aspermont,
but should begin to retreat back to the west around 7 pm or so,
perhaps going as far west as a line from near O`Donnell to near
Matador by around midnight. Model guidance continues to be
decidedly mixed on the coverage and strength of t-storm
development along the dryline in the 3 to 6 am time-frame, but
most guidance shows at least a few storms firing up, first to our
south, then spreading northeast along the dryline.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

Main weather-maker today has made it to near the San Juan
Mountains from which it should eject out into the central Plains
by Saturday and into Ontario by Monday. Southwesterly flow should
persists through Sunday when things become more zonally oriented
on their way to a bit more northwesterly into Monday. A trough
axis will rotate around the parent low approaching Monday
afternoon with a second and stronger trough following on Tuesday.
Thereafter, it appears that ridging will edge into the area.

Thunderstorms have fired perhaps about 30 miles further west than
originally anticipated yesterday though severe coverage was
covered well in prior forecast as a storm intensified over King
county. The activity should move off to, and remain east during
the afternoon and evening. A jet streak is evident on WV imagery
across SRN NM/AZ which should make its way to the Rolling Plains
late this afternoon. Late tonight, as has been the case for a few
days now, NWP suggests the potential for convection to re-fire
along the retreating dryline out in the Rolling Plains. A
disturbance is also evident on WV across the Sierra Nevada which
may be a source of enhancement tonight. This activity may persist
until a few hours after sunrise as it moves east. We`ll see a
return of breezy conditions west of the dryline (particularly
across the S. Plains/ SW Panhandle. Given the fuel states, the
amount of green-up evident across the region to keep fire weather
concerns low. Tomorrow afternoon, the thunderstorm risk looks to
remain confined to the eastern Rolling Plains up into the SE
Panhandle similar to today. East of the dryline, severe storms
will be possible once again during the afternoon in a very
unstable airmass. Large hail and downburst winds should be the
primary threat though a tornado may be possible.

By late Friday afternoon, a cold front should move into the region
from the Panhandle thus shunting moisture well to our southeast. The
progress of the front is just a bit less as it doesn`t quite make
the upper Texas coast.  The boundary will serve as a focus for
thunderstorm activity to our east and south into Sunday.  The GFS
wants to rapidly bring moisture back across ERN NM through it
appears to be over-doing things as is a typical bias of that model.

Monday afternoon into Tuesday becomes quite uncertain on
precipitation chances.  Northwest flow storms could become
established over NE NM Monday afternoon moving SE.  The next cold
front comes by sunrise Tuesday.  The GFS fires convection along the
front which RARELY happens out here and so will taper pops from the
blends.  Instead, storms should fire across the Permian Basin and
points east.  With low level moisture scoured out all the way to the
Gulf things should remain dry.




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