Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241227
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN

THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE

MORNING WHEN VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR

CONDITIONS. KLBB AND KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A

SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY

WINDS LIFT THESE TO MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT

COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS

TOO UNLIKELY FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL

CEILINGS MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER

AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW

FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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