Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 271109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT CDS FIRST AT ROUGHLY
23Z...AND LATER AT LBB. EXPECT SUSTAINED NNE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS AT
LBB LIKELY TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN SUNSET AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TO WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION
AND PUTS AN END TO THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THAT HAS PERSISTED
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THIS FRONT WILL COME COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 22-00Z. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...SUBSTANTIAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SHOULD OUTWEIGH BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TO RESULT IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAYS READINGS...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-8 DEGREES OR SO.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH...AS
CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS THICK AND THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL
BE AT ITS PEAK. NOT ONLY THIS...BUT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ACT TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS. GIVEN ALL OF THE FACTORS DISCUSSED...OPTED TO
SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH RESULTS
IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR A REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
CURRENTLY STAND AT 87 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 90 DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS.

BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  OPTED TO BUMP WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MODELS TO
UNDER FORECAST POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATIONS.  AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH OKLAHOMA TEXAS...BUT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.  THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES /I.E.
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...KING...STONEWALL/.

LONG TERM...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE INDICATED FOR THE EXTENDED.  BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWFA. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AFTER A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD
SIMPLY SEE TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER 3 COMES
IN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER IN OUR FA. AREAS TO
OUR EAST MAY BE A BIT MORE FORTUNATE IN THAT REGARD. THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME LATE NEXT MONDAY. NWP HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM SO THAT IS A POSITIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  36  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  41  64  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  43  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  40  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  45  67  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  43  66  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  45  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  49  71  46  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          90  47  69  45  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  52  72  47  72 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16





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