000
FXUS64 KLUB 171921
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
221 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Our stretch of very warm temperatures for the past six days is set
to grind to a halt tomorrow following a rather strong cold front
arriving in the morning. At 2 PM this front stretched from east-
central WY into northwest NE ahead of widespread low clouds and
some light snow, but fortunately for us the air mass will modify
considerably as it draws closer. Meanwhile in the mid and upper
levels, a sheared upper trough in westerly flow overhead will give
way to zonal flow on Thursday.

The big challenge remains high temps for tomorrow thanks to a marked
cooldown in MOS which is now 5-10 degrees lower than NBM. Opted to
shave NBM`s highs by several degrees over all but our southernmost
row of counties. A lesser challenge is the arrival of richer Gulf
moisture across our SE zones late tonight ahead of the front on SW
winds. Although this moisture is too shallow for convection, there
could be some low clouds or fog that try to develop around daybreak
until the front scours this away.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cloudy and cool with increasing rain chances remains the message for
the weekend following tomorrow`s cold front. A shortwave trough will
enter the West Coast near Baja California and push eastward with
southwesterly flow aloft Friday and Saturday. Increased Pacific
moisture in the midlevels will bring high clouds to the area Friday.
Surface winds will be out of the east in the wake of the frontal
passage, with increased low level moisture due to isentropic
lifting. Thus, low clouds will also develop through the day Friday
with the chance for some light rain showers developing through the
evening. Temperatures will remain below normal Friday in the 60s
with the increased cloud cover through the day. A backdoor surface
cold front will push through the forecast area Friday night with
rain chances continuing to increase into Saturday morning as
temperatures cool in the lower levels. The best rain chances are
Saturday morning with increased Pacific moisture with the
approaching shortwave aloft. Periods of light to moderate rainfall
at times through the morning and afternoon hours with localized
flooding possible. Soundings show weak elevated instability with the
potential for some rumbles of thunder and lightning with a few of
the rain showers. PWATs are still around 1 inch with the EC
continuing to be the wettest deterministic solution, followed by the
GFS then the NAM. The probability of greater than half an inch of
rainfall across much of the area has increased to around 70 to 100
percent. The probability for greater than one inch of rainfall has
also increased to around 50 to 80 percent across much of the area
east of I-27. With cloudy and rainy conditions through the day
Saturday in the wake of the backdoor cold front, temperatures will
likely reach their maximum during the morning hours before dropping
through the day. Thus, temperatures will range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s and there remains the potential for a record lowest
maximum temperature to be broken at both Lubbock (55 set back in
1923) and Childress (55 set back in 1909).

Heading into Sunday, the shortwave will move east of the forecast
area with weak ridging and west to northwesterly flow aloft. A
surface high will push southward into Texas Sunday with the cooler
airmass continuing to linger and highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Southerly surface winds will return early next week with
temperatures quickly warming back into the 70s and 80s. Rain chances
may return towards midweek with the next approaching trough axis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR with generally light W-SW winds today and overnight. LLWS is
looking less likely at LBB tonight, but remains a concern for CDS
until a cold front speeds south Thursday morning ahead of gusty N
winds. A few low clouds could sneak as far south as CDS following
FROPA, though MVFR decks are more likely farther north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Elevated fire remains a concern today for much of the South Plains
and far southwest TX Panhandle until breezy SW winds subside early
this evening. Cooler conditions arrive Thursday following a morning
cold front on gusty N winds. Even cooler and wetter conditions are
likely on Saturday as widespread wetting rainfall develops.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...93