Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 031730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
GIVEN EXISTENT BOUNDARIES AND HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE...PLAINVIEW
AND CHILDRESS TERMINALS WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA NEXT
24 HOURS SO INCLUDED PROB30 AFTER 03-04Z AT THOSE SITES. LUBBOCK
LOWER CHANCES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE TODAY
OR TONIGHT BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION FOR TAF. IN ANY
EVENT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT /THAT
AIDED IN PROVIDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/ PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS SAGGED SWRD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WANED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...IT IS NO
WONDER RATHER LIGHT ECHOES WERE BRIEFLY SEEN THERE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT LACKING OF ANY FORCING AND INSTABILITY MADE IT HARD-
PRESSED TO BE MAINTAINED. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHOWS STORMS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...WHILST DRIFTING SWRD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SWWRD TO ACROSS
ERN NM. FURTHERMORE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IS BEING
DEPICTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME PER THE HRRR. THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS INDEED ALMOST WANED
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVING POPPED UP ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND HAS DRIFTED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH
PLAINS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR/S DEPICTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES.

LATER TODAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING...THUS VEERING TO A S-SERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN. HINTS OF STORMS MAKING IT TO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THIS EVENING
THRU TONIGHT...THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...HENCE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS...AND
THEREFORE BEING THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SWRD TO ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
1.0-2.0 KJ/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND 0-6 KM OF BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
AOA 30 KTS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS HAVING THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND PERHAPS APPROACH
STRONG LEVELS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. /29

LONG TERM...
LATEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY THE
FOURTH STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY QUIET. THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PUMPED
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL EDGE CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND CANADA PAIRS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
TOPPING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STEER SOUTHWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM MENTION A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH OUR CONFIDENCE GAINING FROM SOLUTION CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS WITH MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT CERTAINLY IS AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN FAVOR OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD
CLEAR EAST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WEAKENING. BUT WE STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER NOW ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE
COULD DRAW HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED THAT FAR OUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  87  66  90 /  40  10  10  10
TULIA         65  88  68  90 /  40  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  89 /  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  89  67  91 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  90 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  88  67  91 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  89  68  91 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     71  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
SPUR          70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  93  73  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06


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