Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 162338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Diminished winds overnight generally at or below 12 kts from the
south to southwest. Winds to become a bit gusty again by Monday
afternoon in response to lee surface trough to the west of the


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016/

Tonight will prove to be another relatively mild night with lows
ranging from the low 50s to mid 60s as westerly to southwesterly
winds around 5-10 mph continue across the FA. Tomorrow will be a
close copy of today as winds pick back up out of the southwest to
the 15-25 mph range. Temps will also be in the low to mid 90s again
with the warmest temps expected over the TX Panhandle and the
Rolling Plains where higher thickness values and H850 temps will be
located. Some elevated meteorological fire weather conditions will
be possible across our northwestern zones, but average to above
average fuel moisture levels will keep fire weather concerns low.

We`ll start to put this hot spell behind us on Tuesday as the
first front moves through the area. The latest guidance has the
front moving into our northern counties early Tuesday morning,
with it gradually losing momentum as it progresses south through
the day, likely stalling out just south of our forecast area.
High temperatures Tuesday should be in the 70s north and 80s

Medium range guidance continues to come into alignment with the
next upper trough crossing the plains mid-week. The trough will
be progressive but will deepen as it moves toward the MS Vly. The
trough should drive a stronger cold front through the area during
the day Wednesday. Moisture along the front will likely be too
limited for any rain chances on the Caprock, but there may be an
opportunity for some showers across a narrow sliver of the eastern
and southern Rolling Plains. It will be markedly cooler Thursday
with highs mainly in the 60s. As the surface ridge settles in
across the area Thursday night, temperatures could drop to near
freezing across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northwest South
Plains, we`ll be watching this potential in the coming days. The
surface ridge will relax it`s grip starting Friday, with a steady
warming trend into the weekend as an upper ridge noses in from the


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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