Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 272007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME EXPANDING MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE WATER
VAPOR INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CEASE BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING HEIGHTS FLATTEN.

THE ONCE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME OVER WEST TX AND UPPER LOW
DEPARTING THE BIG BEND REGION ARE QUICKLY LOSING THEIR IDENTITY
THANKS TO HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER AIR EXPANDING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO.
THIS TREND TOWARD WESTERLY AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ARE THE RESULT
OF A DOWNRIGHT VIGOROUS UPPER CYCLONE IGNITING NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS LOW EXITS THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WHILE SERVING TO INHIBIT DIURNAL CU FROM MATURING INTO
PRECIP. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT PREVENT THE LOW LEVELS FROM DRYING
OUT. GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THEREFORE CENTERS ON FOG POTENTIAL
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT...THE STAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE AREA SOILS REMAIN THE MOST MOIST. AS
AREAS FROM ANDREWS TO HOBBS SAW THIS MORNING...SOME STRATUS SHOULD
ALSO MATERIALIZE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHICH IF THE NAM IS CORRECT MAY
LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING. SIDED WITH MILDER BIAS CORRECTED TEMPS
TONIGHT WHILE NUDGING HIGHS UP A TOUCH ON SUNDAY UNDER RISING
THICKNESSES.


&&

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE DAKOTAS
THENCE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE
GREAT BASIN LATE TOMORROW.  UPPER LOW OFF THE BC COAST WILL PHASE
UNCLEANLY WITH THE GREAT BASIN LOW AND TRIGGER EJECTION INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT DOES.  AFTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME
ZONAL AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY...THINGS WILL PICK UP
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF GREAT BASIN LOW
TAKES OFF.  MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP STORMS IN NEW MEXICO UNTIL AFTER
00Z WITH PARMER AND ADJACENT COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
WIND SHEAR IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 40-50+ KT 0-6KM VALUES IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 30+ KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE CAPE GRADIENT
IS QUITE STEEP WITH THE 1500+ J/KG MAGNITUDE JUST TO OUR NW.  SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE THOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO GET GOING CONSIDERING THE FCST SHEAR. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS LOOK
TO HANG AROUND TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK ON TUESDAY THOUGH THE SIGNAL
FOR WEDNESDAY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DEPICTED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE LIKE FEATURE MAY NOT MIX QUITE AS FAR EAST GIVEN THE
MOIST NEAR SURFACE LAYER AND SO...WHILE LOWERING THEM...LEFT POPS
IN THE FORECAST. COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY LEAVING TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  77  56  78  57 /  10  10  10  20  50
TULIA         56  78  57  79  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     57  77  58  79  60 /  10  10  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     58  77  58  79  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       59  78  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   59  77  58  81  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    59  78  59  81  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     63  83  65  86  65 /  10  10   0  10  20
SPUR          59  81  62  84  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     62  83  65  87  65 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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