Area Forecast Discussion
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065
FXUS64 KLUB 170422
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT INITIATED IN DRIER AIR HAVE
GENERALLY MOVED OFF. DEEPER CONVECTION IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AIR OFF THE CAPROCK WAS ONGOING. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CREATING SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST OFF
THE CAPROCK. EVERYTHING FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL STANDS
WITH A TORNADO RISK ON ANY OF THE STORMS OFF THE CAPROCK. CONVECTION
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VERY
QUICK MOVING STORMS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER OFF THE
CAPROCK TONIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM AS PATTERN APPEARS TO
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE COMING WEEK. COLD FRONT MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT PASSING UPPER TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SUPPORTS
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE SOLUTIONS HAVE CREPT UP CLOSE TO OR JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES
ADDING CREDENCE TO ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN THREAT. BIT OF BREAK PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL MODERATELY MOIST. FRONT THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGH MENTION OF STORMS STILL JUSTIFIED. WE ARE
WORKING SEVERE WEATHER RIGHT NOW AND APOLOGIZE FOR THE BRIEF
DISCUSSIONS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  77  48  79 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         49  78  50  81 /  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     49  78  51  81 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  80  51  83 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       50  81  53  84 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   49  80  52  84 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    51  81  53  84 /  10   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     54  83  57  86 /  10   0   0  10
SPUR          53  82  57  85 /  10   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     56  86  59  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



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