Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 262352 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WE HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP. HOWEVER...STRONG
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AND A WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 9 PM.

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO ABOUT 35 KTS AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01 UTC...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
RENEWING MODERATE BREEZES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
SOME LIGHT REDUCTIONS DUE TO BLDU THROUGH ABOUT 01 UTC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG PACIFIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MENTIONABLE LEVELS
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. WILL BE MONITORING FOR INDICATIONS OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 OR 70 MPH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME THIS EVENING.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL
ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES ALONG AND BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT.  A FEW LIGHTNING
STROKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED WITH THE ACTIVITY AND SO HAVE MADE
MENTION OF DRY THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA.
PEAK WINDS LOOK TO BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 30 KTS ARE BEING OBSERVED.
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...SPEEDS CLOSER TO 20 KTS APPEAR TO BE THE
NORM.  A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO A QUITE PLEASANT DAY.

LONG TERM...
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY BACKING WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
EJECT OUT OVER THE PANHANDLES BUT A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET TAKES OVER. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND STALL OUT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER
STALLING THE FRONT OUT WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET.

SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOTTING ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE A VOID OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF THE FA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE FA
WOULD LIKELY BE TRANSIENT. AFTER THE THURSDAY TROUGH KICKS OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS ANOTHER WILL BE ON ITS HEELS DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY WITH REGARDS TO ANY
LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW. BUT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CREATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PATTERN WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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