Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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668
FXUS64 KLUB 191744
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 20/1800 with occasionally
gusty southerly winds.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Upper level high continues to drive West Texas weather this morning.
As typical with weakly forced systems...there is some degree of
wobble about the high but it should largely stay put over Oklahoma.
An easterly wave is noted coming off the Gulf of Mexico into South
Texas this morning though it should remain well south and not have
any substantive impact on our weather today.

LONG TERM...
High pressure aloft will dominate the region into early next week
and will keep the region warm and dry. Previous model runs have had
the upper high pushing off to the the west by the late weekend
placing us under northwesterly flow aloft. Models have opted to
instead have the ridge flatten late this weekend while having
very,very weak northwesterly flow aloft which wouldn`t do much in
the way of increasing precip chances. Models diverge on how to
handle the ridge by mid next week. The ECMWF puts the region under
northwesterly flow aloft by pushing the ridge off to the northwest
while the GFS keeps the flattened ridge over the southern half of
the CONUS. Both of these solutions are currently beyond the forecast
period.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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