Area Forecast Discussion
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581
FXUS64 KLUB 182341 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
641 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The forecast area will remain on the southwest flank of an upper
ridge that is centered from SE Kansas and eastern Oklahoma to the
Ozark Plateau. This pattern will promote primarily a south to
southeast low level fetch keeping dew point temperatures from
dropping to far below 50 degrees. That in turn will help keep
temperatures from pushing about 100 for most areas. In fact, model
progs have a slight decrease in thicknesses for tomorrow vs today
supporting the slight decrease in high temperatures for tomorrow
noted in MOS guidance. Given trends of the last couple of weeks will
trend toward the warmer end MOS. This will be relatively pleasant
compared to last week`s extreme heat but will still be a touch above
normal for the date. Precip chances look very limited. Easterly flow
will keep any high terrain convection to our west, and there are no
significant waves headed this direction from East Texas that would
help unleash potential energy from ambient low level moisture.

LONG TERM...
Dome of high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern as
we march toward record heat for July. Mean temperature of 87
degrees thus far is full degree higher than current record year of
86 in 2011, with no end in sight to daily high temps at or above
normal values in the forecast.

Along with the continuation of seasonably hot temperatures we will
remain mostly dry with low chance POPS possible by the end of the
upcoming weekend into the beginning of next week that are not yet
worth inserting into the grids. With the ECMWF discounting the
precip advertised by the GFS due to week upper level height falls
to our north and marginal moisture at best. Surface winds will be
breezy at times the farther north and west you get across the
South Plains and southern Texas Panhandle later this week but
certainly nothing uncommon for this time of year.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/01/14



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