Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270427
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES OF THESE STORMS AFFECTING A TAF SITE AND
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS ROUGHLY BISECTING THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST AT 19Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER
MEAGER...BUT MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60
MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND RICH MOISTURE /PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES/ WILL SUPPORT THE
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE HAVE READJUSTED THE BEST POPS TO
FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF
CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO WILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. THE STEERING FLOW IS DIRECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHWARD...BUT
THERE ARE INDICATIONS SOME ACTIVITY COULD EDGE TO OR A LITTLE WAYS
ACROSS THE TX/NM STATE LINE LATE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING AT MOST SPOTS...MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA. THIS WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS. THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LIKELY
RESIDE TO THE SOUTH /ALONG THE STALLING FRONT/ AND WEST /WHERE THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED/. THAT SAID...SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PROGGED TO SPILL OUT OF NM OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND THIS ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PROVIDE A LOW THUNDER CHANCE...FAVORING
THE WESTERN ZONES. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NM CAN PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE
LINE...THOUGH AGAIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE TOO FAR EASTWARD. GIVEN THIS HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIM POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS ALLOWING THE TROUGH
TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA AND PROVIDING A CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND. BEFORE LOOKING FORWARD TO PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND WE
MUST FOCUS ON OUR MARGINAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS LAT MONDAY INTO THE
EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY.

STEADY...ALBEIT WEAK AT TIMES...UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST WILL KEEP OUR DEWPOINTS IN THE 55F-65F THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. AS THE AMPLIFIED HIGH ACROSS THE WEST REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY AND LINGERING IN OUR
VICINITY INTO TUESDAY. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY IS THE DIRECTION OF THE SOMEWHAT ANEMIC
FLOW ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. GFS INDICATES PRECIP
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR NOW STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND
POPS WHICH FAVOR GFS SLIGHT CHANCE...GFS/ECMWF ARE IN REALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SIMILAR PATTERN
EVOLUTIONS AND BOTH KEEPING US DRY AND AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  83  63  88 /  30  20  20  10
TULIA         64  84  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  84  64  86 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  86  65  87 /  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  85  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  86  64  87 /  30  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  86  65  88 /  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  89  67  91 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          67  87  65  88 /  30  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  90  66  91 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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