Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 201120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

North winds have diminished but are expected to increase again by
mid-morning as surface high pressure continues to build into the
region. A bit of mid cloud will give way to clear skies not too
far into the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/

The cold front has moved through the forecast area, and with the
upper level trough continuing to move to the east across the
northern and central plains will see surface high pressure build
into the southern high plains while mid to upper levels will see dry
northwesterly flow moving over the region. As a result, a fair and
cooler day is in store. North winds will stay a bit breezy through
the morning before beginning to diminish this afternoon. Boundary
layer will decouple tonight with winds going nearly calm early in
the evening as the surface ridge axis drifts eastward across the
forecast area. Late tonight will see a return of south winds across
the western zones as the ridge axis shifts to the the east of that
part of the forecast area. That development should keep the majority
of northwestern zones from seeing freezing temperatures. However,
there could be a few pockets that see a light freeze in the
sandhills around Muleshoe, but also possibly also in areas prone to
colder temperatures under this regime, namely rural areas from
Floydada north toward Silverton where light to calm winds expected
for much of the night.

No changes of significance were introduced to the inherited
forecast package. The large scale pattern remains on track to
transition from weak cyclonic NW flow early Friday to progressive
ridging for the start of the weekend. Following the ridge axis, a
steady stream of high clouds from the subtropics is progged to
spill over the region by late Saturday in SSW upper flow in tandem
with a decaying trough crossing the lower Rio Grande. These clouds
should have little impact on mixing and otherwise breezy and mild
afternoons east of surface troughing in eastern NM, but a diffusing
cold front entering the central TX Panhandle by Sun may dampen
these winds a touch.

As winds aloft veer more westerly early next week, shallow height
falls and occasional impulses should transpire well downstream of
an elongated west coast trough. Unfortunately, any meaningful lift
with these minor waves is tough to put any trust in for precip,
particularly following several days of low level moisture deficits.
Superblend`s slight chance PoPs on Tue are not receiving much
support from the latest operational GFS and ECMWF; however, long
term forecasting benefits most from the use of ensembles and for
that reason the 00Z GEFS members still show fair probabilities for
light precip. Upper ridging is then favored to rebuild by midweek
ensuring drying of the column and maybe much milder temps than
models currently depict.


.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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