Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 260926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
326 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

An embedded shortwave trough continues tracking east across West
Texas and the South Plains just out ahead of an upper level ridge
axis that is also tracking east, currently in eastern New Mexico and
will be central Texas by early this evening. Surface moisture is
slowly advecting north in light southerly flow and is expected to
provide a low stratus cloud deck through mid morning across the
southern half of the CWA at least, and may inch as far north as
Plainview on the Caprock.

Surface winds will veer and increase out of the southwest in
response to the ridge axis shifting east which will coincide in a
quick decoupling by late morning and low clouds scouring out. Though
low ceilings will lift by late morning, low level moisture will
remain intact across our area and increasing high level cloudiness
from a developing system to our west will keep temps right around
seasonal norms for late November...low to mid 60s. Height falls
aloft will maintain clouds through the night into early Sunday as a
surface trough works west to east. Southern Texas Panhandle will see
a slight chance of precipitation early Sunday morning under top down
moistening but best chances remain north out of our area. Will
likely see some low clouds and/or patchy fog early Sunday morning as
well along with mild overnight temps, mainly in the middle to upper

The models this morning are showing pretty good continuity with
the overall pattern, so few meaningful changes have been made to
the forecast. A long wave trough is still expected to be carved
out over the continental U.S. early this week. This trough will
initially push onto the West Coast later tonight with the first
short wave trough ejecting from it Sunday. This trough will be
fairly stout and will deepen after it crosses the Colorado Front
Range late Sunday, closing off over the Northern Plains. This will
create a pretty tight pressure gradient across the southern High
Plains during the day. Stratus will need to be eroded before winds
can veer and increase, and that is expected to happen by early
afternoon. A second, weaker, trough will move across the southern
High Plains Monday keeping the pressure gradient tight. This day
may turn out to be windier with MOS showing the potential for low
end advisory criteria. Will hold off on that for now, but it will
be a trend to watch. The third and final trough to eject from this
long wave pattern will cross the region Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. The models have trended more to a pretty significant
positive tilt with this trough, and thus continue to look even
less likely to produce precipitation. Will follow the previous
forecast and trim precipitation chances even further.

The long wave trough will eject eastward Thursday and will be
replaced by short wave ridging as a closed low is progged to take
shape near Baja California. The models have been showing this
pattern developing for several runs in a row. Warm conveyor belt
precipitation could fall as early as Friday across the Rolling
Plains, but the main show with this system will be just after the
valid period of the forecast.




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