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000
FXUS63 KDVN 102332
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 850MB
WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROFS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A TROF
RUNNING FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

QUIET AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET
ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER SUNSET...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONGER COLD
FRONT AND DEVELOPING SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY.

THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BETTER
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. BY MID DAY THE
FORCING AND SATURATION WILL HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH THAT SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE SEEN IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF
DUBUQUE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE TOP DOWN SATURATION CONTINUES AS THE FRONT
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND THE FORCING INCREASES. LIGHT RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH TO ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 30 BY MID AFTERNOON.

THE TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF I-80. NORTH OF I-80 SATURATION
WILL BE COMPLETED WITH LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. WHERE THE FORCING IS
THE STRONGEST...A BAND OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A DUSTING ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

DUE TO THE WARM START TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 30 ON SOUTH. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING THROUGHOUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...12Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF UPCOMING STORM. ALL MODELS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEW NAM TRACK A 998MB SURFACE LOW FROM SW
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK ALSO SUPPORTIVE BY THE COUPLING OF UPPER
JETS BETWEEN GREAT LAKES JET AND GREAT PLAINS JET COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 12Z NAM TAKES THE LOW FURTHER NORTH OVER STL AND
IS THE OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS AND THUS HAVE DISCARDED FOR
NOW. HOWEVER...IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
PTYPE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS WOULD BE NEEDED.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AS
MID LEVEL FGEN BAND SHIFTS SE OVER THE CWA. COLD ADVECTION AND
DYNAMICAL COOLING TO CHANGE PCPN ALL OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG NORTH WINDS USHER IN COLDER AIR INTO
THE CWA. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CWA ASSOCIATED WITH TRACK OF LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO INCREASE IN THIS REGION. DEF ZONE TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KEOKUK IOWA TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS WITH
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. AT THIS
TIME...STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF INCH IN
MOST AREAS IN THE CWA UP TO A HALF INCH IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND USING SLR/S IN THE 10
TO 12:1 YIELDS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE CHALLENGING AND AM CONCERNED THAT AMOUNTS MAY
BE TOO HIGH WITH 2-M TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SOME MINOR VARIANCES IN MODEL QPF AND
THERMAL PROFILES WHICH HAVE IMPACT ON AMOUNTS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
REDEVELOPS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE
50S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY ALLOWING ANY SNOW WHAT/S LEFT ON THE
GROUND TO MELT. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

HIGH PASSING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA MAKING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST 5-10
KTS BY TUE MORNING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE
AT CID AND DBQ OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY TUE
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL RAINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE CID TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOWER MVFR CIGS. CIGS TO BECOME MVFR
AT DBQ AND MLI BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE PRECIP APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.     ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...12