Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 020428
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

At 2 PM CDT...cool Canadian high pressure dominates over the upper midwest
with mostly sunny skies and light northeast winds and temperatures in
the lower to middle 70s. High clouds in the high plains are moving slowly
east as weak disturbance develops. Upper level flow supports this system
to slide to the east impacting the area...mostly in the south through
at least Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Short term forecast confidence assessment...poor or below average with
main issue the timing and northward extent of clouds and light rain
and rainshowers from south to north overspreading the region by Saturday
afternoon. This will impact high temperatures with risk many areas may
still be at least 3 degrees too high if thicker clouds and light rain
do develop for later shifts...especially along and south of highway
30.

Tonight...mostly clear skies will become mostly cloudy all but far northeast
by Saturday morning ahead of plains disturbance. Mins should range by
up to 10 degrees with near 60 degrees far sw with thicker clouds and
mins as low as around 50 degrees far northeast where skies should remain
mostly clear to clear with light winds.

Saturday...Clouds to continue to increase with areas of light rain and
rainshowers to overspread locations mostly along and south of highway
34 in Iowa in late morning and afternoon. Isolated embedded thunder
will be possible along Iowa/Missouri border by afternoon warm front
moves slowly north. Highs will be challenge as stated earlier with lower
to middle 70s expected north of I-80 and lower 70s south and
probably upper 60s south of highway 34 in Iowa. This would be 7
degrees below normal in the north and up to 20 degrees below
normal in sections of the far south and southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The rest of the holiday weekend will continue to see the bulk of the rain
chances south of I-80 increasing as you go south, being in closer proximity
to boundary(ies) and best lift and moisture transport. 12z ECMWF model
came in further north and stronger with the upper level shortwave by Sunday
and would argue for spreading higher precipitation chances and heavier qpf
further north, but given this one run jump from previously stable more
southerly scenario and also notable spread in models have stayed the course
advertising the higher rain amounts and best chances over southeast Iowa,
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Any rains so long as not
excessive would be welcomed, as much of the aforementioned area is in moderate
drought (D1) conditions. Highs will likely remain somewhat flipped on end
with the normally warmer southern cwa likely staying cooler due to clouds and
precipitation.

For the 4th of July holiday on Monday, high pressure will begin building into
the region bringing drier conditions, which looks to last through Tuesday.
It will be seasonably warm with highs in the 80s and more typical lows in the
60s.

Wednesday through Friday, the medium range models suggest a pattern shift
will take place featuring more typical summertime heat and humidity, as
surface and upper level ridging shifts off to our east. This will result
in increasing heat and humidity with a more pronounced southerly flow
ushering in a warmer airmass from the southwest, with 850 mb temperatures
around +25C for much of the period. Heat index values will likely approach
or even exceed 100 degrees on one or more afternoons Wednesday through
Friday. Precipitation chances look to be on the increase as well during
the period, especially Thursday into Friday, with the area in/near ring of
fire and MCS spawning grounds. Seasonably strong jet and high instability and
moisture should promote a risk of severe storms and heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Surface high pressure over northern Illinois will slowly retreat
eastward through Saturday while a storm system emerges from the
rockies into the plains. A large area of heavy rain and
thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the approaching
system...reaching southeast Iowa late Saturday afternoon and more
likely Saturday evening. Have kept prob30 showers going for late
afternoon at BRL, then steady rain and MVFR conditions in a broad
brush approach for the evening. This system will not likely affect
the remaining terminals this cycle and VFR conditions will prevail
with generally light east to northeast winds tonight veering to
more southeasterly as the system nears Saturday.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Sheets



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