Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 281747 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH ACCURATELY REPRESENTING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE DUE TO SNOW MELT. THE NAM IS OVER DOING MOISTURE AND WITH
THE H85 WAA SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS AND VSBY ISSUES. WHEN YOU REMOVE
THE NAM FROM MODEL TEMPS...THE H85 WAA AND OTHER MODELS SUGGEST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS TODAY. AS SUCH MOVED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST SNOW PACK IS.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10KTS...SOME PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MELTING SNOW AND WAA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SURFACE RIDGE RUNNING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM FRONT RAN FROM WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH TEENS
AND 20S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FLURRIES ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT AREAS
NORTH OF I-80 AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNRISE.
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE A DUSTING AT BEST.

QUIET AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A
WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. SOME VERY PATCHY FOG MIGHT
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS WERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

GENERALLY DRY TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS NEXT 7 DAYS.

LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO GOOD DUE TO LIMITED SENSIBLE
WEATHER ISSUES WITH ONE MAIN EXCEPTION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY OVERDONE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO AMERICAN MODEL PHYSICS PACKAGE
ISSUES THAT HAPPENED LAST WINTER AND SO FAR...ARE OCCURRING AGAIN PAST
FEW WEEKS THIS WINTER WITH SNOW COVER. RESULT...TOO COLD AND MOIST IN
AMERICAN NAM/GFS RAW OUTPUT DATA...ALSO WITH THOSE MODEL MOS DATA
SLIGHTLY IMPACTED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15+ MPH AND LIKELY FAIR SKIES SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH HALF OF AREA. THIS WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AHEAD OF NEXT CANADIAN FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO PROBABLY OVERDONE FOR LATER
SHIFTS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH KEEPING MINS POSSIBLE
STILL TOO LOW IN NW 1/2 OF AREA WITH MINS AOA FREEZING. ANY LINGERING
SNOW SHOULD HAVE MELTED BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO ARRIVE
QUICKLY WITH NW UPPER FLOW FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY AFTERNOON WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS. SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLOUDS ARE AGAIN OVERDONE.
FAIR SKIES AND COLD INTO TUESDAY...IF LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
MINS ARE EASILY 5+ DEGREES TOO HIGH FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS.
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE 10 TO 15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EJECTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
FROM SOUTH PLAINS. BEST FORCING SOUTH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND THUS ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FG OR BR
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT BRL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING LESS THAN MVFR...HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LIFR FOR A LARGE AREA. BELIEVE THAT GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY GO MVFR AT BRL AND VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS





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