Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 311123
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PRECIPITATION QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN IS MAINLY
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT SHORTWAVE AND A STRATOSPHERIC
INTRUSION INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

THUS THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST
AREAS TO MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW PRIOR TO AND JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO THE SNOW
SHOULD MELT ON CONTACT BUT MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN A DUSTING DURING
THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A TROF/FRONT RUNNING FROM A LOW NEAR KAPN INTO
SOUTHEAST IOWA. BEHIND THE TROF WINDS INCREASED SHARPLY. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35
MPH POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

DRY...WINDY...AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM DAYTIME HEATING MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS IN THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S. FAVORED COLD AREAS MAY SEE LOWS AROUND 20 OR IN
THE UPPER TEENS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FREEZE HEADLINES
LOOK OK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST UNDER A HIGH
AMPLITUDE...YET PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST THAT WILL SEND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES AND A SHORT PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SATURDAY
PUSHES EAST SUNDAY LEADING TO A BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE 40S
SATURDAY...SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE 50S...BUT THE BRISK SOUTH WINDS
AND LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE IT FEEL
NEARLY AS COLD.

00Z MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE EARLY WEEK FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH CONSENSUS NOW SHOWING ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ARE
CONTINUED FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE...BEST MODEL AGREEMENT...MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL...THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF
PHASING BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL IMPACT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ACTUAL
PERIOD OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LESS
THAN 12 TO 18 HOURS AT BEST AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...WHICH WILL BE
NARROWED DOWN IN LATER FORECASTS.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN PUSHING HIGHS
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MONDAY...THEN THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z/01 AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08






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