Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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287
FXUS63 KDVN 121803
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1203 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FIRST CLIPPER THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA LAST
EVENING HAS EXITED THE CWA WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
TO EXTREME SE MN AND SW WI AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE LOWER 20S...WHILE TO THE WEST READINGS WERE IN THE TEENS.

ARCTIC AIR WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN AND POINTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

HEADLINES...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

TODAY...I WILL MENTION A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING IN NW IL. OTHERWISE...IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON
ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. THIS AS AN
ARCTIC HIGH (1044 MB) MOVES INTO EASTERN ND BY THE END OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
PUSHING TO NORTH-CENTRAL IA BY 6 AM SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROP TO AROUND -20C IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
10 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW IN BUCHANAN COUNTY (WHERE SNOW COVER IS THE DEEPEST) TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ONE OF
THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO
25 BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THUS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A BITTERLY COLD...YET TRANSIENT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
THE PERIOD SATURDAY. THIS HIGH IS ON THE MOVE...AND WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VARYING ON HOW
FAST SATURATION WITHIN THE DEPARTING HIGH/S WAA AND EARLY ONSET OF
THE UPCOMING CLIPPERS FORCING. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD NOT TAKE TOO
LONG TO SPREAD MID CLOUDS...AND WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE THROUGH A
DEEP LAYER...SATURATION FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL LOCATIONS FROM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING...A BROAD DUSTING TO 1 INCH IS LIKELY
FROM EAST TO WEST. THE WAA FORCING FOR SNOW SHOULD ABOUT 90
PERCENT OF WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE...BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE A
GREAT SET UP FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE MOST FALLING IN
THE NORTH SUNDAY. I FEEL WITH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...THIS MAY
BE WORTH AN ADVISORY DESPITE THE LONG DURATION FOR A 3 INCH
CRITERIA. IN ANY CASE...WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS TODAY.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT
AGAIN...MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DONE BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER CLIPPER OR HYBRID ZONAL CLIPPER MAY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE LOWS TIMING. THE TIGHTLY
WOUND SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED SIMILARLY WITH ADVISORY SNOWS...BUT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THAT WAVE ARE GREATLY DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO
MODEL. THUS...MODEL BLENDED POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS
POSSIBLE WAVE.

LOOKING TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A PATTERN CHANGE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE MAY NEED
TO MELT OFF SNOW COVER BEFORE IT IS REALIZED...BUT UPPER 40S TO MID
50S APPEAR POSSIBLE IF THE PATTERN CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR 2 MORE
MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR BKN CIGS AND EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXITING TO THE
SOUTH OF MOST OF THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY...WITH BRL LAST TO CLEAR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON LEADING EDGE OF
INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING 15 TO 25 KT NORTHWESTERLY
SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 8-13 KTS BY LATE EVENING. BESIDES SOME
CIRRUS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING UNDER THE
INCOMING RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-
     LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12



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