Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 071150 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

REMNANT BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BATCH IS CURRENTLY
PARALLELING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOME
AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHER AVIATION
CONCERNS WILL BE THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF
MIST/FOG JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EXTENDING
EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDERS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BREAKING UP SOME. FARTHER WEST NEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW
MEXICO...NAMELY BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE USUAL HAZARDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY/CEILINGS
IN DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
STORMS. LOOK FOR A QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THIS
EVENING IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY THANKS TO
RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY...THEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WHEN A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK THEN TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE
STATE...LEADING TO A GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY AT A NUMBER OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATER TOTALS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND MOVED INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AREA...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SOAKING RAIN. THE ABQ
SUNPORT SET A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD YESTERDAY OF 0.69"...AND HAD
AN ADDITIONAL 1.42" BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 315 AM.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS FORECAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT...RAIN-COOLING AND ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGH OF 80 DEGREES AT THE ABQ SUNPORT WOULD
BE THE LOWEST DAYTIME HIGH SINCE MAY 27TH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LEFT-OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG/EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
LATER TODAY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...
WHICH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.
EVEN WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE HEATING THESE STORMS
SHOULD SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA...MOVES EAST INTO
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. MORE STORMS FORECAST WEDNESDAY...DESPITE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT-OVER. STORMS LOOK
TO FOCUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WHEN A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND THE PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONVECTIVE UPTREND FOR THU/FRI
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND CREEP BACK
WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND AND CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST "UP" DAY...FAVORING
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FRONT HAS SPILLED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SOME GUSTY
GAP/CANYON WINDS PERSISTING IN SOME CENTRAL AREAS. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY SUSTAIN INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT SOME AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPORARY DISRUPTIONS DUE TO RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SUCH AS THE
ALBUQUERQUE AREA IS SEEING NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS JUST EAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAWN...LIKELY DISSIPATING TO LIGHT RAIN
THEREAFTER. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY OF 80 TO 100 PERCENT IS
UNDERWAY IN ALMOST EVERY ZONE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HELP KEEP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE COOL AND MOIST WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY
TODAY. THE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EAST...BUT NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD STILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREAS
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INTO THE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY
LIGHT...ASIDE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER NM FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MAKES LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL CA. SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL VEER
MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR IS STILL ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE INTO WESTERN NM...AND THIS WOULD
THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS A BIT FARTHER EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL DEVELOP...AND TEMPERATURES
WOULD REBOUND CLOSER TO AVERAGE. LOWEST HUMIDITY WOULD BE FOUND IN
THE SAN JUAN BASIN WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

THE WEST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH FARTHER INLAND TO
CENTRAL CA ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OVER NM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THURSDAY AND
ALSO INTO FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OR ALTERATION TO THE MOISTURE
PLUME. BY THE WEEKEND ANY REMNANTS OF THE CA LOW WILL HAVE EJECTED
NORTHEAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
NUDGE BACK WESTWARD TO NM. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLOW MIGRATION AT THIS
POINT...AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN OR
DECREASE. THUS...AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL AND EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS WILL PERSIST.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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