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000
FXUS65 KABQ 192034 CCA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
234 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Last night and today a cold front has pushed through much of
eastern New Mexico. The front weakly pushed through the central
mountains with brief gap winds at Albuquerque. Another cold front
will move into the region tonight with much colder air across
eastern New Mexico on Saturday. High temperatures will be 20 to 30
degrees below normal due to the colder air, patchy fog, clouds,
drizzle, light rain, and a few showers which spread across the
eastern plains in its wake. Gusty canyons winds are likely again
tonight in the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will warm up again
Sunday after clouds and fog burn off in the morning. Meanwhile,
western NM will remain dry, warm, and breezy through the weekend.
Temperatures quickly rise to 10 to 20 degrees above normal Monday
through Wednesday with Tuesday being the warmest day. The higher
temperatures should allow for increased snowmelt runoff for area
rivers and arroyos. There will be another cold front to push into
eastern New Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday which may result in a
gradient in temperatures across the region depending upon the
timing of the front.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weak Pacific trough is on approach from over SoCal and
a reinforcing backdoor cold front is currently moving south across
the east central plains of Colorado. The reinforcing backdoor front
will surge southwest across the area overnight and result in another
round of gusty east canyon winds into the Albuquerque Metro, but are
still forecast below advisory criteria. Gusts to between 40-45mph are
likely after midnight, especially below the mouth of Tijeras Canyon
west across southeast ABQ to the Sunport. Isentropic upglide is
forecast to trend up overnight into Saturday across eastern NM as
the Pacific trough approaches and interacts with the back door
front, but moisture will be mostly limited to the frontal layer and
the result will likely be light rain and/or drizzle vs convection,
although we can not completely rule out a lightning strike or two
across portions of the east central/southeast plains near the TX
border. Due to easterly upslope flow and a near saturated frontal
layer, areas of fog will likely develop early Saturday morning
across eastern portions of the area and be slow to diminish. High
temperatures will be an impressive 20-25 degrees below normal
across the eastern plains tomorrow. The front is modeled to hold-on
across the RGV Saturday and not mix out like today, which will make
for high temperatures in the 60s. A few showers are likely across
the northern mountains Saturday afternoon, especially near the CO
border, as the front provides upslope forcing and the Pacific trough
moves overhead. Precipitation will diminish Saturday evening and
areas of fog may redevelop overnight across eastern NM as a moist
frontal layer remains entrenched.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Overall forecast confidence is pretty high for Sunday through
Wednesday given the consistency in the various ensemble guidance.
This results in an upper level pattern with above normal heights
at 500mb as ridging builds during this time over much of the
Desert SW. Ridging shifts east on Wednesday through the end of
next week but the timing of which varies from one model ensemble
cluster to the next. The forecast leans more on the side of the
ECMWF/Canadian with the GFS being quite progressive with a
shortwave coming across the Pacific into AZ on Wednesday. There is
still some time for better agreement in the ensembles and
increase confidence in this pattern timing.

The result of this forecast pattern is to adjust high
temperatures from the NBM upward. Deterministic NBM for high
temperatures Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday for much of the area
are closer to the 25th percentile. The adjustment was to blend
closer to the 50th percentile these days which is supported by
atmospheric process ongoing with this pattern. SW/W winds should
increase some to allow for solid downsloping in a lot of areas and
deep mixing in the boundary layer. Tuesday looks the strongest
with both these processes along with anomalously higher heights
aloft. Even with the forecast nudge upward some forecast points
are still on the lower side of guidance so there is potential for
the forecast to bust with higher temperatures based on this
spread. That said the other area where the forecast has a
potential for busting will be Tuesday into Wednesday for the NE
part of the the state where another cold front pushes into the
area. There is some pretty good spread in the timing of the front
so this would lead to there being larger spread in temperatures.
We lean more towards a slower push with the front especially south
of I-40 but there is a chance the front pushes in faster thus
really flipping the script on the temperature forecast.

Now temperatures early next week are not looking to be near
levels to where there will be heat impacts or heat related
illnesses. The potential is still there for SE NM like for Roswell
with high temperatures in the mid 90s. The other concern will be
these higher temperatures and air causing more rapid melt of
snowpack in the higher elevations. Snow Water Equivalents are
still above normal in the Jemez Mountains and portions of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains so there could be additional flows and
push some basins to action stage. A flood advisory has been issued
for the Rio Chama below Chamita. We will continue to monitor
flows on the Rio Chama, Jemez, Rio Grande, Embudo and over to the
Pecos. It is still unclear what runoff there will be on the other
side like for the Mora and Sapello Rivers.

Overpeck


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Gusty southwest winds will prevail across central and western NM
this afternoon, with southeast winds behind a backdoor front
across eastern NM. The backdoor front will surge west this evening
to near the Continental Divide overnight, bringing gusty east
canyon winds to KABQ, which will likely require an Aviation
Weather Warning for gusts to between 35-40kts. Widespread low
stratus is forecast to develop behind the front overnight, with
deterioration forecast at KLVS, KTCC and KROW. IFR with some LIFR
conditions are likely overnight at those TAF sites, with the
introduction of light rain/drizzle and fog early Saturday morning.
MVFR cigs are forecast to redevelop at KSAF Saturday morning.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions are forecast to persist.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Hot, dry and unstable conditions prevail across western NM this
afternoon with excellent mixing as a Pacific trough approaches
from the west. A reinforcing backdoor cold front will surge
southwest across the area overnight and interact with the
approaching Pacific trough to produce chances for wetting
precipitation that will be highest across the east central plains
near the TX border. Much cooler conditions will prevail Saturday
behind the backdoor front, with well below normal temperatures and
relatively high humidity across eastern NM. Warming is forecast
early next week as an upper level ridge moves east across the
region. Spotty critical fire weather conditons are possible
Monday, mainly across the northeast highlands, prior to the ridge
moving over on Tuesday bringing lighter winds. Highs on Tuesday
will be above normal areawide. An upper level trough is forecast
to impact the area around the middle of next week with stronger
winds and the potential for critical fire weather conditions, but
low forecast confidence on the timing due to fairly significant
model spread.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  76  41  77 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  70  33  74 /   0  20   0   5
Cuba............................  41  68  35  71 /   0  20   0   5
Gallup..........................  33  75  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  70  37  71 /   0   5   0   5
Grants..........................  36  74  34  74 /   0   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  72  39  73 /   0   5   0   5
Magdalena.......................  49  70  41  70 /   0  20   0   5
Datil...........................  42  69  41  70 /   0   5   0   5
Reserve.........................  37  76  37  79 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  80  49  82 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  38  64  32  67 /   5  30  10  10
Los Alamos......................  42  62  40  68 /   5  20  10  10
Pecos...........................  36  54  35  68 /  20  20  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  38  59  39  64 /  20  50  40  10
Red River.......................  30  54  29  60 /  20  70  50  20
Angel Fire......................  28  55  26  61 /  30  40  30  20
Taos............................  37  63  31  69 /  10  30  20  10
Mora............................  33  53  32  65 /  30  30  20  10
Espanola........................  46  66  38  76 /   5  20   5   5
Santa Fe........................  44  61  39  70 /  10  20  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  43  63  37  73 /   5  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  66  46  76 /   5  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  69  44  77 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  71  43  79 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  70  44  77 /   0  10   0   0
Belen...........................  50  74  41  79 /   0  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  70  43  79 /   0  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  48  72  41  79 /   0  10   0   0
Corrales........................  47  70  43  79 /   0  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  73  41  79 /   0  10   0   0
Placitas........................  47  66  44  74 /   5  10   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  48  69  44  78 /   0  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  52  76  44  80 /   0  20   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  58  40  68 /  10  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  41  59  40  71 /  10  10  10   0
Edgewood........................  39  57  38  72 /  10  10  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  59  34  73 /  10  10   5   0
Clines Corners..................  36  49  33  65 /  10  10  10   0
Mountainair.....................  41  59  38  71 /   5  10   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  61  35  71 /   0  10   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  48  67  42  73 /   0  20   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  40  51  38  65 /   5  30  10   5
Capulin.........................  32  46  31  61 /  40  20  30   5
Raton...........................  34  52  32  65 /  40  30  30   5
Springer........................  37  51  35  64 /  30  20  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  35  48  34  61 /  30  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  34  47  33  61 /  30  20  30   0
Roy.............................  36  46  35  59 /  40  20  20   5
Conchas.........................  40  50  39  66 /  50  30  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  40  49  38  61 /  30  30  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  40  50  37  61 /  50  50  10   0
Clovis..........................  41  49  39  59 /  70  60  10   0
Portales........................  41  50  38  62 /  70  60  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  41  52  39  63 /  40  40  10   0
Roswell.........................  49  57  46  65 /  30  40  10   0
Picacho.........................  43  54  40  63 /  10  30  10   0
Elk.............................  41  56  38  66 /   5  40  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11