Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 170534 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL STORM ODILE REMNANTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLAY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH. HAVE VCSH CARRIED IN TAFS TO
COVER EXPECTED PERIOD OF SHOWER COVERAGE...WITH SCT LAYERS
PLACE HOLDING FOR POSSIBLE EXCURSIONS INTO IFR/MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ROW CURRENTLY IN FOG WILL BATTLE LOW VIZ OVERNIGHT...WITH
VIZ IMPROVING FROM 17Z ONWARD WED MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1012 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWERS POPS SOME FOR REST OF PRE MIDNIGHT PERIOD
MAINLY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...NORTH AND EAST PER RADAR TRENDS.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP SLIGHTLY FOR ABQ METRO AREA. QPF
DECREASED SOMEWHAT FOR REST OF EVE AND ALSO OVERNIGHT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING SOME PCPN SURGE INTO SW MOST
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRACK AND IMPACTS OF ODILE
REMNANTS STILL LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR OVERALL VIA THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND HURRICANE CENTER TRACK. ZONES ALREADY OUT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

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&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

&&

$$

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