Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011741 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEST WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z BEFORE
TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AT KABQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE TODAY. A FEW LIGHT
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL JUST ENHANCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS IN THEIR WAKE. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE THE FIRST DAY OF
APRIL SEEM MUCH MORE LIKE SPRING IN NEW MEXICO. WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING WINDS. WINDY
AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...POSSIBLY WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WINDS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ESCAPING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS...THE
FIRST DAY OF APRIL WILL SEEM MUCH MORE SPRING-LIKE. WEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...MIXING DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE MOST AREAS BY LATE MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE SUB-ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE WINDS CRANK UP FURTHER....LIKELY
MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COOLER WEST AND MUCH COOLER EAST ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
RETURN SELY/SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRING IN MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPTS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS MOISTURE MAY END UP RESULTING IN A
FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW
OVER THE PACNW INCREASES SUNDAY...FORCING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EWD. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MORESO
MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND BEYOND. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING A TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OR DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
KEEPS THE TROUGH/LOW OVER UT/CO WHILE THE ECMWF DIGS THE FEATURE
FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSED IT OFF AND BRINGS IT EWD THROUGH NM
WEDNESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NO CLEAR
SHIFT IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARD EITHER TRACK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER EASTERN NM AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A
FEW AREAS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
INCLUDE AROUND FARMINGTON...CONCHAS AND TUCUMCARI. VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS MORE OR LESS CENTERED ON INTERSTATE 40. A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF SPOTTY RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE EXISTING
WARNINGS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND THEIR EAST SLOPES. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT
WILL MANAGE TO HANG IN THERE AT MODERATE LEVELS. EXCELLENT VENT
RATES.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES...A DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH LONG
DURATION SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS
FIRE POTENTIAL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REMAINS. SOMETHING
ELSE TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE MARGINAL NATURE FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE
GREEN UP. OBVIOUSLY EXCELLENT VENT RATES ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EAST WITH A
STRONG COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN VERY DRY BUT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST. THE EAST WILL SEE HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH MINIMUM VALUES
FROM 15 TO 30 PERCENT.

RETURN FLOW MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE INCREASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST AREAS. BRIEF
MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS CAN BECOME.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK LIKE ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL SLIDE QUICKLY
EAST ON ZONAL FLOW WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL SOAR ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS.
MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL DAY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>105-107-108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$





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