Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 280527 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1027 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017
06Z TAF CYCLE
Deteriorating conditions will continue overnight as a potent upper
level disturbance and attendant cold front approach from Arizona and
move over Tuesday. IFR conditions are forecast as rain turns over to
snow at KFMN and KGUP early morning, with MVFR conditions at KSAF
and KAEG. Winds will be on the uptrend through the TAF period, with
gusts to near 50kts likely at KLVS, KTCC and KROW Tuesday. Visibility
limitations in blowing dust likely at KTCC and KROW, but nothing
below 6SM expected at this time. An airport weather warning will
likely be required at KABQ with the cold front passage around mid day
and gusts to between 35 and 40kts. Improving conditions are forecast
.PREV DISCUSSION...449 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017...
Quick update to issue a wind advisory for several forecast zones
surrounding the high wind warning area, including the Middle RGV.
Also added areas of blowing dust to portions of the Eastern Plains
for Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, forecast on track. New suite of
products out shortly.
.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MST Mon Feb 27 2017...
A significant Pacific trough...currently found to the west of the
state...will affect the area during the next 36 hours. Abundant
moisture associated with the trough and jet streak will move over
western and central portions of the state tonight and last through
Tuesday. Snow levels will drop as the trough moves over the area.
The heaviest snow will be found above 7500 feet but snow impacts
will be felt below 7500 feet across the west and north. Amounts as
high as a foot or more are expected across the northwest mountains
and west slopes and high peaks of the Sangre de Cristos. Strong to
very strong wind will affect southern and eastern portions of the
state on Tuesday. Much drier conditions will prevail Wednesday and
last into the weekend. Initial temperatures will be below normal but
warm to above normal status by Friday. Lots of sun expected Wednesday
through the weekend.
After reviewing the latest model guidance and liquid water/snow level
projections...decided to add a few zones to the winter weather
products. Three zones within the Sangre de Cristos (west slopes and
high peaks) will get a warning. Also adding the back end of the east
slopes of the Sangres and upper Rio Grande Valley zone to our winter
weather advisory highlights. Moist and strong orographic blocking
flow remains depicted in the modeling for the northern mountains with
lesser impacts across the western mountains. It appears that liquid
water amounts have come down for the SW mtns. Challenging part to
the forecast will be accurately projecting snow accumulation and
impact levels within the gridded forecast during certain portions of
the event...especially the onset of the more significant portion of
the QPF event this evening and overnight. As the trough moves
overhead...snow impact levels will drop. Curious situation for
Tuesday night. Much of the precipitation will rapidly decline during
the late afternoon and evening hours and give way to some clearing
and rapid cooling near the surface. A flash freeze scenario will be
possible across western and northwest areas Tuesday
night...especially if some slush or wet snow can remain on area
roadways into that period.
Wind is the other main story for the next 36 hours. Will upgrade the
Watch to a Warning. Didnt get a chance to synthesize wind advisory
areas within the highlights but look for a encapsulating area of wind
advisories around the wind warning area by Tuesday. Hybrid scenario
shaping up between the Rio Grande Valley...portions of the central
mountains and adjacent high plains to the east on Tuesday. Showers
will move through and most likely advect stronger winds down to the
surface. Thus creating a helter skelter strong to very strong wind
scenario across some central and eastern areas. Blowing snow will be
an initial problem across the high country later tonight into Tue
Models continue to show a drier and warmer pattern starting Wed and
lasting through the weekend. Lots of sun showing up in the layer
humidity forecasts. Decided to bump up model guidance temps for later
in the week...into the weekend. This seems to be the track record of
late. Below normal temps Wed...transitioning to near to below normal
temps on Thu before becoming above normal on Friday most areas.
High impact and rapidly changing weather expected across the area
into Tuesday night to include several hours of critical fire weather
conditions for much of eastern New Mexico the rest of this afternoon.
Potentially damaging winds possible for parts of central and eastern
New Mexico on Tuesday with the focus for any critical fire weather
conditions shifting into far southeast areas. Accumulating snow to
return to the high terrain areas of the north and west.
West and southwest winds increasing to the lee of the Sangre de
Cristos as well as the Clines Corners to Santa Rosa to Tucumcari
corridor this afternoon. They will strengthen further and expand
eastward tonight and through Tuesday in response to deepening low
pressure over far northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado.
Will keep a Red Flag Warning for much of the east into early
evening. No significant wind shifts are foreseen across eastern
areas tonight but west and southwest winds will remain locally
strong and gusty tonight especially in the mountains and to the lee
of the central mountain chain.
High confidence in much stronger and potentially damaging winds for
Tuesday but cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, lower Haines
values and higher min RH values will preclude widespread critical
fire weather conditions for EC and NE New Mexico. Regardless,
widespread high sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph and gusts topping 60
to 70 mph can be expected.
Meanwhile, rain and higher elevation snow will be widespread across
the west and north tonight into Tuesday night. This as a decent
slug of Pacific moisture that races east-northeast ahead of a cold
upper level storm system that will exit Tuesday night.
Much drier and colder air will overspread the area behind this
system on strong northwest flow Wednesday. Maximum temperatures will
be as much as 15 degrees below normal across the northwest and 5 to
10 degrees below normal for the east and south. Dry and warmer
weather will then take hold for the second half of the week with
much less windiness.
Ventilation rates will not be a concern in the near term but they
will trend downward with fair to poor vent conditions Wednesday and
Thursday, then slowly improve Friday through the weekend.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following
High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST Tuesday for the following
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for the following
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST Tuesday for the following zones...