Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 170859
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
259 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Subtle weak wave aloft moving through the Midwest early this
morning could bring a few flurries to areas north of the forecast
area in southeast SD and northwest IA. However, cloud bases are
around 10000` and  but don`t think they`ll get far enough south
into our area this morning. Another quick moving wave coming out
of the northern Rockies could bring a few more flurries later this
morning, again to SD but remaining just north of the forecast
area. Meanwhile, the area or rain in southeast KS, while moving
northeast, likely remains just out of our area as well. We will
have the clouds this morning, but those thin this afternoon which
should help to boost temps 10 to 15 degrees over yesterday.

High pressure shifts eastward overnight, with increasing southerly
winds through daybreak Sunday. Lows may occur in the evening, with
rising temperatures after midnight.

Sunday starts the day quite windy with south breezes at 15 to
25 mph and higher gusts. Winds begin to relax in the afternoon as
a cold front beings to move into the area. Nevertheless, temps
rise into the 50s and lower 60s before the front arrives, although
the wind could make it feel slightly brisk.

Models still suggest that low level isentropic lift developing
over the frontal boundary Sunday night. However, moisture depth
is not sufficient to introduce ice crystals, thus expecting areas
of drizzle to develop through daybreak Monday. The cold front
mentioned previously provides a demarcation zone of colder air to
the north and still mild above freezing air to the south, which
appears to be setting up along I80. Temperatures continue to fall
on Monday as the arctic air continues to move south. This will
result in a several hour period of freezing drizzle, with some
light icing of a few hundredths of an inch possible along/north of
I80, and generally just drizzle to the south. In extreme
northeast NE, the moisture column may be deep enough for all snow
with just a dusting possible there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A strong push of the upper trough could bring deeper moisture into
northeast NE Monday night, which could bring snow up to an inch
for those areas. Meanwhile, the renewed lift from the upper trough
could bring additional drizzle chances south of I80, but again,
the moisture column isn`t deep enough to generate ice, so it would
be mostly freezing drizzle. There are lingering precip chances
Tuesday morning, but ending by Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday into Tuesday night will be sharply colder with highs in
the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens.
Wednesday and Thursday should both be dry with a gradual warming
trend. Friday will have a low chance for snow changing to rain,
but confidence is low. The GFS remains dry, but the ECWMF has
increased moisture with a weak wave moving out of the southern
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Expect VFR conditions through the period, with mainly just some
mid and high level clouds. There will be some low level wind shear
overnight and into Saturday morning. Surface winds will be
southerly overnight, then shift to northwest on Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Miller



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