Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 082320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SFC RIDGE AXIS FM WRN SD INTO WRN KS WILL DEVELOP EWD TONIGHT
ACROSS THE MID MO RVR VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EWD THOUGH
TOMORROW AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 800-700
MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
AND MAY BE AN ISO SHRA OVER THE WRN CWA BY AFTN. WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A COOL START WE HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH
FOR WED.

WAA WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON WED NIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS OVER WRN KS. THIS WILL INCREASE THETA-E ADVECTION AND
MASS CONVERGENCE IN A ZONE FROM SOUTHERN NEB INTO ERN KS. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA FM
NEB INTO KS STARTING ON WED EVENING AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS STAYS TO OUR WEST WITH OUR WESTERN CWA
ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE BETTER FORCING. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS BUT
KEEP THEM JUST SHORT OF LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TEND TO SHIFT SWD INTO KS ON THU MORNING WITH DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THRU THE DAY. WE WILL CONT TO SEE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THU...BUT IT DOES LOOK WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASING H85 TEMPERATURES. THE NAM/GFS/EC/GEM ALL HAVE A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE INTO ERN SD AND NORTHERN NEB THU EVENING
AND CONT TO DROP SEWD THU NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CWA BY LATE THU
EVENING. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AOA 1.75 INCHES ON THU NIGHT AND
CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN WRN IA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONT INTO FRI MORNING BUT AGAIN WE SHOULD GENERALLY SEE DECREASING
POPS IN THE E THRU THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONT TO TREND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRI WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 LIKELY IN THE SOUTH BY
THEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE PLACEMENT
OF A FRONT NEAR THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OVERALL PATTERN
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME NOCTURNAL TSRA ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOESN`T APPEAR TO PROVIDE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW...AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES GIVEN PERIODIC CONVECTION LEAD TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RA...SO HAVE INCLUDED SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SMALL POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS AGREE THOUGH THAT BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER SHROTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY WX FOR MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WEAK SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER
18Z AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...FOBERT


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