Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 190805
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Some spotty convection could develop this morning across eastern
KS and much of MO, but would remain south of the forecast area.
Otherwise, today will be a warm day with breezy southerly winds
and highs pushing into the mid 70s and possibly even lower 80s
across southeast NE. Not bad for the last day of astronomical
winter! A cold front will move into the area tonight. Most models
suggest that any convective threat will exist just east of the
forecast area across central IA during the evening. The GFS and
SREF hint that the western edge of the convection could affect
southwest IA. The ESRL HRRR and High Res NMM also hint at this as
well, thus will have a slight chance of storms east of the MO
river, but my instinct tells me it will probably remain dry.
Dewpoints do rise into the 40s and lower 50s today, and a few
counties along the MO river could see very high fire danger.

Much cooler on Monday for the first day of Spring, but still
above normal with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Breezy
northeasterly winds prevail which will usher in drier dewpoints,
with grassland fire danger indices only reaching the high
category.

A weak wave moves out of the central Rockies Monday night into
Tuesday. This will mostly be a rain event, but will be mixed with
some light snow Tuesday morning in northeast NE. Amounts will be
light, with 1/2" or less in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Dry conditions most of Tuesday night, although another weak wave
moving out of the Rockies could bring another chance of snow and
rain through Wednesday, but no accumulation expected with that
system.

A trough moving on shore on the west coast Wednesday night should
bring increasing chances of rain into Thursday, with thunderstorms
eventually becoming likely through the day Thursday into Thursday
night. Models begin to substantially diverge by this time though,
with details of a cold front and possible closed low becoming
quite murky with overall low confidence Thursday night into
Friday. GFS is much more progressive and would end precip threat
much earlier than ECMWF, which would even linger precip into
Friday night. Model blends hold onto precip even into Saturday,
but feel that`s probably too long and later forecast packages
should be able to end precip chances much quicker than currently
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A lee trough situated over the northern and central High Plains
will transition to a southeastward-moving cold front which will
move into the mid MO Valley Sunday afternoon into night. Ahead of
the front, winds will remain southerly with LLWS criteria being
met overnight at KOFK and KLNK. VFR conditions will prevail with
mainly scattered to broken high-level clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mead



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