Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 010849
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
249 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

No active weather progged heading into this weekend.

Good agreement amongst the medium range models a Pac NW shortwave
trof moving into the Central Plains will induce the next round of
pcpn Saturday night. Pcpn initiation is progged to occur generally
over wrn KS Saturday aftn then expand newd toward the CWA.
However..expansion of activity though will be curbed as it
approaches the I-80 corridor where condensation deficit become
increasing unfavorable to allow for saturation to occur. Thus will
gear POPs to reflect this. As for pcpn type...wet bulb temps suggest
RA/SN mix during the evening hours...then SN aft midnight
with no significant accumulations expected.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC solutions in one degree or another advertise the
potential for a potent winter storm system affecting the Central
Plains next Tues/Wed/Thurs. Because of model consistency the last
couple runs indicating the possibly of this event...confidence at
this point is somewhat higher. However...there it is still too
much uncertainty with respect to timing/SN amounts/placement to
try and pin down details.

As for temps...the bottom falls out heading into next week as both
the ECMMOS/MEX/EKDMOS all prog lows in the single digits come
Thursday morning at KOMA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

The closed low pressure system over the Great Lakes is losing
it/s grip over eastern Nebraska...however will continue to affect
the area with moist cyclonic flow and variable MVFR/VFR
conditions. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail at KOFK and
KOMA through 12Z. There may be some breaks in the overcast and
included a tempo group at KOMA to cover this. KLNK will mostly be
VFR, however some patchy MVFR conditions may affect them between
06-10Z. Improving conditions from KLNK will eventually work toward
KOFK and KOMA during the day. There are hints that although KOFK
improves Thursday afternoon, some MVFR conditions will try to work
back in Thursday evening. Northwest winds will generally range
from 6-12kts.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny


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