Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Breezy and warm across the area today, with record maxes already set
at Pueblo and Colorado Springs by mid afternoon. Have seen spotty
red flag conditions over the eastern mountains and portions of the
Arkansas Valley, though winds have already begun to decrease
slightly as of 20z as mid level flow weakens. For tonight, winds
gradually diminish through the evening, then turn light nly on the
plains as weak front drops south through the area. Should still be
just enough wind to keep mins rather mild most locations, especially
eastern mountain slopes. On Sunday, upper/mid level flow relaxes
slightly, so most locations should see less in the way of wind
through the day. RH will still be very low, but with lack of wind,
appears fire weather conditions at most locations will stay below
critical thresholds. Weaker mixing and a switch to ely winds on the
plains will lead to lower max temps, though readings will still be
well above average across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The forecast remains on track through the extended period with
generally mild temperatures and low chances for precipitation
through the next 7 days.

Sunday night through Tuesday...high pressure across Colorado will
shift east into the Central Plains Sunday night into Monday ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough. Dry conditions are expected to
prevail into Monday morning. As the upper system approaches,
isolated to scattered showers will move into the Continental
Divide Monday afternoon and evening. As the upper system moves
across the area through Tuesday, showers will become more
widespread over the mountains, pushing east into the East
Mountains. A few model solutions bring isolated activity into the
plains late Tuesday, but confidence is low that this will happen.
The exception may be the Palmer Divide where a shower or two may
be possible. Snow levels will remain high with the shortwave
passage, with up to 3 inches possible on the Continental Divide
peaks above 12 kft. Temperatures will remain warm in the lower
elevations with 70s for highs.

Wednesday through Saturday...high pressure will rebuild north
across Colorado for the later half of the week. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail Wednesday and Thursday. Flow aloft will
transition southwesterly heading into Friday and Saturday.
Previous model solutions brought a chance for showers to the
mountains late in the week, but the latest GFS and ECMWF eject
that system well to the north and would keep us dry. Temperatures
will remain warm with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions expected at COS...PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. A weak front will work its way across the eastern plains
tomorrow morning, with generally light northerly winds at COS and
PUB early in the morning becoming weak upslope through the
afternoon. Generally light and variable winds expected at ALS.




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