Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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442
FXUS65 KPUB 251728
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological reasoning
with main short-term meteorological issues being pops...temperatures
and the potential for locally heavy rain.

Majority of forecast district currently experiencing variable clouds
with limited shower activity in combination with above seasonal
early morning late July temperatures.

Recent computer simulations...real-time data...PV analysis and
forecast model soundings indicate that another round of primarily
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms should be noted
today(favoring southern and western portions of the forecast
district).

Once again...the potential exists for locally heavy rainfall and
associated localized flash flooding potential(although projected
afternoon precipitable water values are running approximately 20%
lower than values experienced yesterday over many locations).

Also...a few stronger storms are also anticipated from this
afternoon into tonight...although convective parameter values are
not as favorable as they were yesterday.

Over the majority of the forecast district...maximum and minimum
temperatures are projected to run within a category or so of late
July climatological averages during the next 24 hours in combination
with basically low-grade gradient winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Tue an upr level ridge wl be centered ovr the Great Basin, and it
is expected to remain in this area into Sat. It is then forecast
to shift ovr CO on Sun as an upr trof moves into the Pacific NW.

On Tue, showers/tstms should develop ovr the mtn areas in the late
morning to early afternoon hours, and then increase in coverage in
the afternoon hours and spread to the nearby lower elevations thru
the evening hours. The southeast plains should see little if any
pcpn on Tue. Locally heavy rain will be a threat with stronger
storms, especially if they sit ovr urban areas of burn scars. By
late night, most if not all pcpn is expected to end. Highs on Tue
should be just a few degrees above average.

Wed looks a little drier acrs the forecast area.  There wl still
probably be isold to sct showers/tstms ovr the mtns areas, with
possibly some isold storms ovr and nr the Palmer Dvd.  Late Wed
night and early Thu morning, a weak shortwave trof is expected to
move thru wrn KS and brush far ern CO.  This disturbance may bring
some late night/early morning showers and storms to locations near
the KS border.  Otherwise, Thu looks fairly quiet with just some
isold chances for pcpn.  High temps both Wed and Thu wl likely be a
few degrees above average.

Another disturbance move by to the east of the forecast area on Fri
and brings low level upslope flow to much of the sern plains and an
increase in pcpn chances.  Western portions of the forecast area wl
probably see just isold showers/tstms, with isold to sct pcpn
chances ovr the sern plains and mtns. For the weekend, wl probably
see isold to sct pcpn chances ovr and nr the mtns, with isold pcpn
being possible ovr the sern plains, and high temps still being a
little above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Not much change in the weather pattern, with tsra forming over the
mountains early this afternoon, then drifting toward lower
elevations and the taf sites beginning 20z-21z. Will carry a VCTS
at all terminals once again, with perhaps best chance for tsra
impact at KALS, as moisture is slightly deeper near the NM border.
Will end tsra threat at the terminals 02z-03z, with VFR conditions
overnight. Could see some weak convection linger through much of
the night over the mountains, especially across the San Juans and
La Garitas.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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