Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 312126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES ARE POPS...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED
BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT TIMES AND
WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS EVIDENCED BY 2 PM
TEMPERATURES READINGS OF 99F AT LA JUNTA...95F AT LAMAR AND 94F AT
PUEBLO.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO BE NOTED THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
GENERATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...HAZARDOUS
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BASICALY REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT.

FOR LABOR DAY MONDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MOST LOCATIONS.  ALSO...HAVE
DEPICTED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PRIMARILY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...BUT STILL BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS MONDAY
EVENING. A DRY SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE AIRMASS
LOOKS IS DRY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPES OVER
1000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED AND ONLY HAVE
SILENT POPS ON TUESDAY. BULK SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. IF THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN...THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ON WEDNESDAY...A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING IN BACA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...EAST OF
THE LEE TROUGH. ADDED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS REGION AS CAPES COULD
BE OVER 1000 J/KG.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEATHER PATTERN PATTERN BECOMES WETTER
AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO. EC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH COULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
MONSOON PLUME. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
CURRENT GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
TEND TO BE CAPPED...BUT THIS IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY NEAR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES.

IN ADDITION...A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...77



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