Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1136 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Issued at 720 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Updated grids to take down Severe Thunderstorm watch and to modify
pop grids to account for better clearing expected overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

At 3 pm, weak convection ongoing in a swath from the San Luis
Valley to El Paso and Pueblo Counties. Temperatures ranged from the
cool 40s and lower 50s across El Paso County to the lower 70s across
the plains, with 60s across the high valleys and 40s and 50s
mountains. Dewpoints were in the upper 40s to lower 50s far east
plains and mid 40s I-25 corridor and adjacent plains.

Rest of this afternoon and tonight, short term models show
convection across the I-25 corridor moving east-southeast and
expanding in coverage across the plains through the late afternoon.
the rest of the afternoon.  Highest instability (CAPEs between 1000
and 1500 j/kg) and bulk wind shear (50 knots) forecast to be across
the southern part of the plains later afternoon.  SPC upped the ante
to slight risk across the plains east of the I-25 corridor which
seems reasonable. A couple supercells are probable, with the primary
risks being large hail and marginal severe wind gusts, and an
isolated tornado possible. Main lift with the shortwave looks to
clear the eastern part of the CWA by around 04Z or so.

Sunday, shortwave influence departs to the Great Plains, and upper
heights rise. Models show any showers and storms should be confined
to the higher terrain and adjacent high valleys and I-25 corridor.
Even at that, coverage will be isolated to low end scattered, and
rain amounts should only be light or moderate. As mid level temperature
elevate a few degrees celsius, high temperatures at the surface will
elevate around 5 degrees fahrenheit from Saturday`s levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Sunday night-Monday night...Moderating northwesterly flow aloft
progged across the region with a broad upper trough translating
across the Upper Great Lakes through the High Plains and upper level
ridging building across the Great Basin. Models indicating a
downtick in convection Sunday with any storms, mainly over the
higher terrain, diminishing through the early evening. Latest models
also indicating a uptick in convection Monday afternoon and evening,
especially over and near the higher terrain, as a passing wave
associated with the Great Lakes upper trough sends a weak front
across Eastern CO owning to developing low level upslope across the
Eastern Plains. Temperatures will continue to be around to slightly
cooler than seasonal averages through this period.

Tuesday-Saturday...Some differences in longer range models, though
they generally agree on upper level ridging building into the
Rockies on Tuesday and persisting across the region into the
upcoming weekend. With that said, will likely see daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as there will be enough residual moisture
in place across the region. Greatest coverage of storms expected to
be over and near the higher terrain, through the afternoon and early
evening hours, with storms then diminishing through the late
evening and overnight hours. Temperatures look to be near to
slightly above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Northerly winds early in the period will gradually diminish
overnight before picking back up again at KCOS and KPUB Sunday
morning. Winds will generally remain under 10 kts. By afternoon
diurnally driven southerly to southeasterly winds around 8-10 kts
will develop at all three taf sites. Isolated thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains during the afternoon...but these are
not likely to impact the terminals. -KT




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