Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271349
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
749 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

RAISED POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...IN VIEW OF WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS TO REINITIALIZE
THINGS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION IN VIEW OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME...ADJUSTING
MAINLY TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. ALSO LOADED LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS AND REINITIALIZED THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SATELLITE
SHOWS PLENTY OF CONVECTION...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES AT
THIS EARLY HOUR.  THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP A LITTLE.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD START TO DECREASE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS.  MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
PRIMARY STORM THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT NOT
THAT MUCH COOLER.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD END NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF EJECTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS/UPPER MID
WEST.  THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

A GRADUAL UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST FORCING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF CO. THIS INCREASES THE
FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER CO AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 80S FOR THE VALLEYS...AND 60S/70S
FOR THE MTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP PUSH A
FEW STORMS OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  OVERALL...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO EXPECT
THESE TO BE RATHER HIGH BASED AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS FOR
THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS UNDER THE BETTER FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DETAILS IN THE MODELS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE...TUESDAY
COULD BE A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS A
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS GREAT
BASIN/WRN CO.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS A TAD DRIER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  THEN
THE FETCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FLIGHT AREA TODAY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.  GENERALLY VFR...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. SAME
SCENARIO FOR KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.  ALL 3 SITES WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY TODAY IF NOT RIGHT AT THE SITES.  VCTS
IN ALL 3 TAFS FROM ABOUT 18Z-03Z.  SHORT FUSE UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ANY OF THE TAF
SITES THAT TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO GO MVFR/IFR/LIFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD AS THE STORM
MOVES THROUGH.  PLEASE MONITOR TAFS CLOSELY FOR UPDATES. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...LW



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