Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232127
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
HAS PUSHED BACK WESTWARD INTO KIOWA AND NORTHEAST BENT COUNTY AS
OF 1 PM...AND EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST TO NEAR KLIC...TO
KDEN...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
TELLER COUNTY. WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
STALLED AND IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD...EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BACKDOOR WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S BEHIND IT. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING...BUT DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN MORE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT TODAY...AND REMAIN IN
THE 40S AND 50S. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME FURTHER MIXING OUT THAT
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT HRRR AND
RAP13 APPEAR TO BE DRYING OUT DEW POINTS TOO VIGOROUSLY...EVEN IN
THE LATEST RUNS. THIS ELEVATES CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THE WALDO BURN SCAR SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
THE WEST FORK BURN SCAR....THOUGH LATEST OBS OUT THAT WAY SHOW DEW
POINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 30S AND CONVECTION DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT STRONG YET. THUS APPEARS MAIN AREA TO MONITOR WILL
BE ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THREAT
AREA MAY END UP BEING JUST TO THE NORTH OF TELLER COUNTY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MIXED LAYER CAPES ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 4000 J/KG OFF THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS...HOWEVER
THERE IS ALSO A FAIR OF CIN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL.
NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY BENEATH THE UPPER HIGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK...SO ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE FROM A
PULSE TYPE SEVERE WHICH COULD PERSIST IF A STORM CAN ANCHOR TO THE
BOUNDARY. BUT WITH THE LACK OF FORCING THIS SEEMS TO BE A LOW END
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER...IT DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...THOUGH WITH MONSOON PLUME OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAINTAIN
SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

FOR THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS WHICH PUTS THE MONSOON PLUME
ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF CO.  MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVERTOP THE RIDGE WHICH WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THEN SEND THEM TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST NORTHERN PORTION SO OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL
PUT WALDO UNDER A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT THAN TODAY.  AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER SHEARS ARE WEAK...SO THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERALL LOOKS
LOW.  STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE FASTER AND TOWARDS THE
EAST...BUT PROBABLY NOT FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON THE BURN SCARS SHOULD THEY TAKE AN
UNLUCKY STRIKE.  SO ANOTHER DAY OF MONITORING THE WALDO BURN SCAR
CLOSELY WILL BE IN STORE. STORM STRENGTH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
SURFACE DEW POINTS MIX OUT...AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA...UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40 DEW POINTS LOOK LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP DRY OUT SURFACE DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CAPE AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.  THIS MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO LIMIT HEATING SOME...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR SO HAVE KEPT PUB BELOW THE CENTURY MARK FOR
NOW. LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST SHOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME OF HITTING
AROUND 100.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

...MORE MONSOON NEXT WEEK...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR LATE JULY...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE
WILL BE TWO DISTINCT PATTERNS THAT WILL SHAPE OUR WEATHER.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK. A WEAK
FRONTAL SURGE WILL USHER IN A LITTLE MORE UPSLOPE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND THIS MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH TEMPS ALOFT STILL PRETTY
HIGH...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE HIGH 90S
OVER THE PLAINS. MAYBE EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER ON SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS A BIT TO THE NORTH.

THEN...A FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING
OVER ERN CANADA WILL BRING A CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER BEGINNING
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OUR LAST PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER...AS A STRONG UPSLOPE REGIME SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AND
DEWPOINTS CLIMB FROM THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER 50S AND
EVEN 60 DEGREE MARK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVE...WITH THE INITIAL SURGE...AND THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL BE THE WETTEST DAYS. EVERY DAY WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THOSE PERIODS ARE
PROBABLY THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THE BURN SCARS AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SVR STORMS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY OVR
THE PLAINS...AS NW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES A BIT AS THE RIDGE MOVE
WWD. TEMPS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS COOLER AND MOISTER AIR ARRIVES FROM
THE NORTH. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD AFFECT KALS AND
KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WILL MAINTAIN
VCTS FOR THESE SITES. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS AND LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS
TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 10-20 KTS. KCOS
MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING -TSRA AT THE TERMINAL
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT



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