Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271700
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPR LOW CIRCULATION OVR WEST CENTRAL
UT AT 09Z...WITH A BAND OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WRN CO.  A BAND OF
PCPN IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CHAFFEE COUNTY AND THE NRN
SANGRES.  THIS WL STILL AFFECT FREMONT AND TELLER COUNTIES EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ARE STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTM SLOWLY
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD OVR NORTH CENTRAL NM...WHICH WL AFFECT THE SRN
SANGRES AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WRN
AREAS WL CUT BACK ON POPS OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SW MTS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT WL LEAVE ISOLD POPS OTHER AREAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 0.5 OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.  THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ENE TODAY...MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER OF CO BY 00Z THU.  WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPR FORCING MOVING INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON...THE CONTDVD SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
TODAY...SPREADING TO THE TELLER COUNTY AND EL PASO COUNTY AREA BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW ISOLD PCPN CHANCE ACRS MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT THE UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD OVR NORTHERN CO...WITH A
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THE WRF SHOW PCPN ENDING OVR
THE AREA BY 06Z...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME PCPN CHANCE ACRS
MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE NIGHT.  WL GO WITH SCT POPS OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND ISOLD POPS FARTHER
SOUTH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL AGAIN BE A THREAT...BUT NOT
A WIDESPREAD THREAT TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  COULD SEE ONE
OR TWO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AROUND 1 INCH DIAMETER
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM THE PALMER
DVD TO KLHX AND SOUTH THROUGH ERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAINING
ON LOCATION OF MAIN VORT MAX. THE LATEST NAM IS THE FURTHEREST SOUTH
ACROSS SE COLORADO...WHERE AS THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS NE COLORADO. AT ANY RATE...WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
THE COOL AIR ALOFT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. WELL BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS STILL POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL REMAINS ON TAP
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH BRISK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF MAIN STORM TRACK
WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH BRINGING EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
HIGHER BASED AND LESS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING WETTING RAINS...AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THINS OUT. THE WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON STORM TRACKS
WITH THE EC STILL SENDING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE AS THE GFS KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER KCOS. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH


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