Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Updated grids to increase pops along the I-25 corridor and Fremont
County, and decrease elsewhere, as per latest radar imagery.
Activity is expected to continue through the overnight hours as
areal coverage gradually diminishes. Moore


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

...Threat for heavy rainfall increases for Monday...

Upper low continues to slowly move eastward across northeast AZ into
northwest NM...spreading moisture to the northeast into southern CO.
Dew points have come up across the mountains as compared to
yesterday with readings still in the upper 30s and 40s.  With lobes
of energy rotating around the upper low which stalls out across NW
NM tonight...should see rounds of showers and thunderstorms across
the area through the evening and overnight hours.  Main focus for
thunderstorms through this evening...besides the mountains...will be
across El Paso county along an east to west surface boundary along
the north side of the persistent KLHX sfc low.  Another convergence
axis resides along the northern slows of the Raton Ridge...arching
northeastward towards KLAA. Eventually outflow boundaries will shift
activity eastward from the Pikes Peak region into the southeast
plains during the evening and overnight hours. In fact both NAM12
and GFS keep activity going across the eastern third of the area
until 12z...with more isolated activity confined to the mountain
areas. Hard to argue with this given a  modest low level jet
overnight across the plains. Will hang on to Scattered pops for the
plains through 09z...with pops tailing down towards morning.  Will
maintain some spotty isolated pops through the night out west where
active moisture plume around north side of the upper low will
persist.  Heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds will be the primary
storm threats through the evening...though some small hail will also
be possible with the isolated stronger storms.  Low temperatures
tonight should be a tad warmer given more cloud cover.

Dew points increase further for Monday with flow more deeply
easterly.  Instead of the northwest storm motions we are seeing
today...storms will be moving more towards the west tomorrow. There
will be more clouds...which could hamper heating/instability
some...but with upslope and another vort lobe rotating around
northern periphery of stalled out filling upper low...should see
more widespread thunderstorm activity for the mountains.  Could be
some training cells along the eastern slopes and models seem to be
targeting the Pikes Peak region tomorrow afternoon for heavier QPF.
Deep layer shears will remain weak...but with the potential for
deeper moisture and perhaps a little better CAPE...main threat will
be for locally heavy rainfall with burn scars the most vulnerable
for flash flooding. Some small hail and locally gusty winds will
also accompany the stronger storms. Highs tomorrow should end up
around 5-10 degrees cooler than those of today.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Monday night-Tuesday night...No big changes to current forecast, as
weakening upper circulation slowly moves across southern Colorado
and into the Central High Plains into Tuesday night. Moisture and
upper level divergence associated with the system will be in place
across the area, and along with weak upslope flow and late summer
solar heating, there will continue to see daily chances of showers
and storms across the region. Best coverage of storms will be in the
afternoon and evening hours, though cant rule out a few late night
or early morning showers or storms across the area through Tuesday
night. The expected slow movement of storms and possible training of
storms will lead to the potential for locally heavy rain and
localized flash flooding, especially across area burn scars.
Temperatures look to be at or slightly cooler than seasonal levels
for through Tuesday.

Wednesday-Sunday...Upper level ridging builds across he state
Wednesday, and increasing southwest flow aloft across the area
Thursday and Friday, as a deep upper trough across the West Coast
digs across Great Basin Thursday, and then lifts out across the
northern Rockies on Friday. Some model differences arise with the
amount of moisture streaming into the area from the south on
Thursday, and with the possibility of secondary energy digging across
the region next Sunday.  At any rate, a brief downturn in convection
looks to be in the offing on Wednesday, with an uptick in convection
once again Thursday and especially Friday, especially across the
ContDvd with proximity to passing system. Temperatures through the
end of next week to be at and above seasonal averages.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

MVFR to VFR conditions along the I-25 corridor through about 09z
due to ongoing convection, which is expected to diminish
overnight. This affects KCOS and KPUB TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions for much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs.
Monday llvl flow should be out of the east, with another round of
showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain and
adjacent plains between 18-20z, which will then continue on
through the night. As storms cross TAF sites, look for
intermittent MVFR conditions. Main threats will be wind gusts up
to 40 mph and brief periods of heavy rain which will lower
visibilities. Moore


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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