Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240517
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1117 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF
CO...AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE FAR SERN PLAINS WL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE ISOLD TO
SCT TSTMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
GENERALLY SMALL HAIL.

AN UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL CO TONIGHT...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO THE CONTDVD. WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA WL SEE CONDITIONS DRY OUT...LOCATIONS NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER
MAY SEE PCPN LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THAT UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO ELONGATE ON SUN....STRETCHING FROM SERN WY INTO
SOUTHERN CO. PCPN WL ALREADY BE GOING ALONG THE CONTDVD IN THE
MORNING...BUT WL SPREAD EASTWARD THRU THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN WL STILL
BE A THREAT ACRS THE AREA...WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MTNS BEING
MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. THE
HIGH MTN AREAS WL STILL SEE SOME SNOW WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUN NIGHT THE UPR LOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. AN UPR
TROF REMAINS OVR CO INTO MON MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE
STATE DURING THE DAY. UNSETTLED AND MOIST CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
OVR THE AREA AND THERE WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PCPN OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS OVR THE AREA ON MON WL STILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

TUE LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVR THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NR THE MTNS. WED AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO
LIE FROM ID TO OVR NV TO BAJA CA. MSTR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
BRING PCPN TO THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS ON WED. A SFC LOW OVR THE
OK PANHNDL ON WED WL BRING SOME UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE ERN PLAINS AND
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE GREAT BASIN ON THU
AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE A TAP OF SUB TROPICAL MSTR
COMING NORTHWARD INTO CO...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE
UPR TROF MOVES ACRS CO THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH A FRONT DROPPING
INTO ERN CO ON FRI. FRI NOW LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS AND MTNS. AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA FOR SAT...THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DRIER...BUT THERE WL
STILL BE SOME PCPN OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 MILES OF KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 06Z TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS IN
THESE TAFS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE NEW TAF ISSUANCE . ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST.  DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT THE THREE TAF SITES.
IN TAFS ONLY HAVE VCTS AS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY LONG. LOWER LEVELS AT KPUB AND KCOS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A MUCH SMALLER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. STILL..ANTICIPATING SCATTERED CONVERGE OF CONVECTION AT
THE THREE TAF SITES. -PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PGW



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