Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251508

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
908 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Issued at 906 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Temperatures have risen above freezing in the San Luis Valley. The
Freeze Warning that was in effect has been allowed to expire.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Upper level trough continues its slow drift through the Rockies
today, with next wave of showers and thunderstorms lifting northward
through the eastern plains early this morning. With surface front
now south of the area, cool air mass and shallow upslope will keep
eastern mountains and plains cloudy through the day, with on/off
showers and light drizzle into the afternoon. Threat of tsra seems
to be limited to the far east where elevated instability was
generating storms this morning, so will keep mention of tsra
generally east of a La Junta to Kim line through the day. Farther
west, central mountains and Upper Arkansas Valley should retain just
enough moisture and upper level lift to keep isolated showers in the
forecast, while San Luis Valley and southwest mountains stay
convection free as drier air advects into the region from the sw.
Max temps will remain below average areawide, and readings over the
eastern mountains and plains will only rise some 5-10 degf from
early morning numbers as clouds and light precip persist.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Overall, basically below seasonal temperatures in combination with
unsettled meteorological conditions at times expected this week
with warmer temperatures then anticipated by this weekend.

Recent forecast model soundings, longer term computer
simulations and PV/precipitable water analysis continue to
suggest that unsettled meteorological conditions will prevail
during the balance of the longer term as next slowly moving upper
system impacts the forecast district this week.

In addition, varying degrees of cool and relatively moist easterly
surface flow is expected to persist into Friday as surface high
pressure ridging continues to our east before eastern Colorado
lee-side troughing attempts to develop Saturday.

Closed upper low initially centered over far western Arizona
Tuesday is projected to move into north-central Arizona by
Wednesday night before shifting across Utah and western Colorado
on Thursday and then into Montana by Saturday.

At this time, it now appears that the highest potential for more
widespread precipitation(including lower terrain rain, higher
elevation snow and isolated primarily afternoon and evening
thunderstorms at times) over the forecast district during the
longer term should be realized from later Wednesday into Friday
and have adjusted recent grids/zones to reflect this trend,
otherwise isolated to scattered pops(generally favoring higher
terrain locations) are anticipated during the longer term.

Regarding temperatures, anticipate that below seasonal late
September maximum temperatures in combination with near to
slightly above seasonal minimum temperatures will persist through
Friday, with near seasonal late September/early October maximum
temperatures then projected this weekend. Finally, the highest
potential for increased gradient winds at times should be realized
from later Wednesday into Saturday morning and then again by
later Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 454 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017

At KALS...VFR today and tonight with any shower activity staying
over the mountains east of the terminal.

At KCOS and KPUB...expect generally MVFR cigs with occasional
showers today, with precip ending tonight, though cigs will likely
be slow to lift. Could see some brief IFR over/near higher terrain
north of KCOS and west of KPUB, especially this morning.

Over the plains, MVFR to occasional IFR conditions will persist with
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening before precip
ends overnight. Eastern mountains will stay obscured with IFR/LIFR
due to clouds/precip today and tonight, while Continental Divide and
interior valleys stay mainly VFR.




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