Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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963
FXUS65 KPUB 182157
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

...BIG STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MODELS CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A HEAVY DOSE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
SPEWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA...UTAH AND NOW INTO WESTERN COLORADO.  ALL OF THIS MOISTURE
AND LIFT IS HEADED OUR WAY...AND WILL MOVE FULL FORCE INTO SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.  RADAR IMAGERY HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
LIGHT UP ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.  TONIGHT...THE
ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PLAINS...AND HIT HARD IN SOME
CASES.

PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.  OVER A FOOT OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE
10000 FEET...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8000
AND 10000 FEET...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN BELOW THAT.

OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE STORY WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING BURN SCAR...URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS.  ALL OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE...BUT THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THIS AREA WILL BE A PRIME TARGET FOR RUNOFF
ISSUES TONIGHT GIVEN THE BURN SCAR AND URBAN RUNOFF CONCERNS ALONG
WITH DRAINAGE INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY MODEL QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SUGGEST ANYWHERE
FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OF WATER COULD FALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 1.50 INCHES
ELSEWHERE...AND LOCALLY UP TO 2.00 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES.  SO...A GOOD SOAKING PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS.

ANOTHER BIG CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE ESCALATING OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  TONIGHT...ANY STORM CELL ROTATION
THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY STAY ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...TOMORROW...
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET THINGS
GOING AT GROUND LEVEL.  MODEL COMPUTED CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
OVER 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF LAS ANIMAS...OTERO AND BACA COUNTIES
TOMORROW FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH COMPUTED LIS
DOWN TO -6 TO -8 IN THE SAME AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA OF
THE POSSIBLE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/TRIPLE POINT EVOLUTION. TO
TOP IT ALL OFF...0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 65-70
KNOTS.  IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN REALIZE THE
INSTABILITY.  IF WE DO...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS INCLUDING TORNADOES.  STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER EXITING
THE STATE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MOIST
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WESTERLY FLOW MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE HEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE
SFC...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS STATES...KEEPING
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHERE AS THE GFS IS A TAD FURTHER
NORTH LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LATER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT
WINDIER AND DRIER FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BEING IN THE DRY SLOT. AT ANY
RATE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS...HOWEVER THERE ARE
A FEW MEMBERS POINTING TO THE FURTHER SOUTH EC SOLUTION...AND WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS WITH CHANCE
AND SLIGHT CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS DO AGREE ON THE
PASSING SYSTEM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH COOL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE AND CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 357 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

MOIST PACIFIC STORM MOVING INTO FLIGHT AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME
SHOWERS ALREADY ONGOING...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FLIGHT AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z
TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF LIFR.

KALS WILL SEE THE LEAST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM. IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR TO
EVEN BRIEFLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH. KCOS IS CURRENTLY VFR...BUT WILL
GO DOWN TO MOSTLY MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE.  FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY VFR...BUT COULD SEE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS 22Z.
AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-084-085.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT TUESDAY
FOR COZ058-060-063-073-075-080-082.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ059-061-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



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