Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270522
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1122 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER TOMORROW...

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS SE CO TODAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO MIX OUT TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY SW-W WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THINGS
DECOUPLE THIS EVE. NR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE CORRIDOR AS WELL...WITH POCKETS OF RED FLAG...BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT THE HEADLINES FOR RED FLAG.

HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THE CONTDVD THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COMPOSITE WSR IS STARTING TO SHOW ECHOES SPREADING
EWD ACROSS NW CO AND N CENTRAL NM...SO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PICK UP IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVE. WILL SEE
SOME 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 10K FEET TONIGHT...MAYBE A FEW
LOCAL SPOTS EXCEEDING A COUPLE INCHES BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT.
MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT.

THE JET SHIFTS SWD FOR MON MORNING...SO ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP ON THE ERN SLOPES...BUT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE SRN SANGRES AND SPANISH PEAKS AREA. OVER
THE PLAINS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
PUSH SWD ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BEFORE 12Z...AND H7 TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO DEGREES BY THE END OF THE DAY. SO...NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF WARMING TOMORROW WITH THE MODERATE CAA IN PLACE.
EXPECT HIGHS A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW TODAY`S VALUES...OR LOWER 60S
FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM AND WRF HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
QPF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUSPECT THIS IS OVERDONE. THE
MODELS HAVE THUS FAR OVERESTIMATED THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO THINK THAT WILL CHANGE FOR
TOMORROW...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT MONDAY...BUT PRECIP
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE PALMER DVD
AND PIKES PEAK REGION...WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MONDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THRU ERN CO...THERE MAY BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA BY LATE NIGHT...PCPN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END...WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN
PLACE...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST OVR THE SERN PLAINS
TUE MORNING AND A WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH.  A KILLING FREEZE HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED OVR NRN EL PASO COUNTY EARLIER IN THE MONTH...SO
THE FREEZE WATCH WILL NOT COVER THAT AREA...AND THE FAR SERN CORNER
OF THE STATE MAY NOT GET ALL THAT COLD AND THUS WL NOT ISSUE THE
WATCH FOR BACA COUNTY EITHER.

DURING THE DAY TUE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES OVR THE AREA WED AS AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GREAT
BASIN. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE SERN CO PLAINS EARLY THU.
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THU AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO
ALONG THE WRN CO BORDER.  FRI THE UPR RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATE EWRD ACRS
THE STATE...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS.
SAT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR CA AND HELPS PUSH THE UPR RIDGE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES.  MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SAT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY OVR SOME OF
THE MTN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD IF ENOUGH MSTR IS IN
THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR SAT.  AT THIS TIME...THE GFS MOVES THE UPR TROF INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF OVR NRN UT BY SUN MORNING.  IT
THE TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO WY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
THE UPR TROF MOVING OVR WRN CO.  THIS BRINGS AN INCREASE IN SW TO
WEST WINDS OVR THE AREA WHICH COULD ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...BUT RH VALUES LOOK A BIT HIGH AT THIS TIME.  IT ALSO BRING
PCPN CHANCES...MAINLY TO THE CONTDVD.  THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR...BUT A
BIT FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

FOR THE TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DENVER
METRO AT 05Z...AND WILL REACH KCOS AND KPUB 07Z-09Z WITH A SHIFT
TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS BOTH TERMINALS. ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHERE A
FEW BRIEF -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE. N-NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE DAY MON...AND A FEW GUSTS OVER 20
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KALS MON
AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT HERE. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED BY
-SHRA/-SHSN THROUGH MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
COZ085>089-093>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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