Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 282155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Models in fairly good consensus with the upper low taking the
more southern track across central NM. This is still a favorable
track for southeast CO...and it still appears best forcing and
isentropic upglide will affect southern portions of the southeast
mountains tonight. Have shaded down snow amounts for Teller county
and Pikes Peak a bit...though it still looks like a good 8 to 14
inches of snow will be possible with the heaviest falling across
the northeast facing slopes. Higher elevations of Pikes Peak
should fair a little better. The big winners with this event still
appears to be the Sangre De Cristo and Wet mountains where a
combination of dynamics and northeast upslope flow should push
snowfall totals into the 1-2 foot range though local areas could
see up to 3 feet from this storm. The Palmer Divide and Raton
Ridge should also see some appreciable amounts of snow with
amounts in the 5 to 12 inch range. Have added Eastern Las Animas
county into a winter weather advisory for late tonight through
Wednesday morning as latest models show a rain snow switch with a
window for heavy snowfall late tonight through Wednesday morning.

As for snow levels...model soundings still suggest rather high
snow levels this afternoon and evening...around 8500-9000
feet...and given the convective nature to the event through this
evening...with CAPE up to 400 j/kg...will still need to monitor
the lower elevations of the newer burn scars until snow levels
drop through this evening. By 06z...snow levels should be dropping
to around 6000 feet...and by 12z...could see snow levels drop
briefly to around 5500-5000 feet by morning. Still looks like an
all rain event for the greater Pueblo area...though some flakes
mixing in during the morning will still be a possibility. After
07z-08z...high res models show northerly flow off the Palmer
Divide winning out over the dynamics aloft...with precipitation
waning off during the early morning hours north of highway 50.

Precipitation will hang on longer down along the Raton and eastern
plains as the upper low pulls eastward through the TX Panhandle
into NW OK and southern KS. Snow levels will rise again so eastern
Las Animas county will probably shift back over to
advisory will come down by noon. Overall QPF totals should range
between .75 to 1.5 inches across the southeast mountains and
plains...with some areas picking up 2.0 inches or a little more. A
good precipitation event to help mitigate the recent drought
conditions. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Active weather pattern continues through the extended as the next
closed low drops through NV/UT Thursday night and tracks more
slowly eastward across NM and southern CO through the weekend.
Still some differences with the storm track with this one...but
looks like another potential heavy precipitation producer for
southern CO...with the current track suggesting the higher amounts
may be shifted a bit northward from the current storm. Once
again...heavy mountain snows and lower elevation rain will
accompany this storm. GFS suggests heaviest snow for the southeast
mountains in the Saturday-Saturday night period. Have shaded pops
upwards into the likely category for these periods. This storm
lingers a little longer than the past couple...then another system
takes a more northern track across CO in the Monday night early
Tuesday period. Overall the active pattern continues. -KT


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Deteriorating conditions expected at the TAF sites this evening
with cigs dropping into the MVFR to IFR categories as widespread
-SHRA spreads in. There is a slight chance for -TSRA at all three
terminals through 03z...though likelihood may be too small to
introduce into TAFs just yet.  Rain will change to snow between
03z-06z at KALS and KCOS with snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches
possible by morning...mainly on grassy surfaces. Widespread
mountain obscurations will develop as +SN develops over the
mountains through early evening...with LIFR conditions persisting
over the mountains through the night. Improving conditions will
take place from northwest to southeast through Wednesday. Winds
will shift from the east to northeast then north at the terminals
with gusts up to 30-35 kts possible at tonight through Wednesday
morning. Should see cigs start to improve at both KCOS and KPUB
between 08z and 11Z as this northerly wind cuts down the
precipitation potential at both KCOS and KPUB. This should lift
cigs back into the MVFR category by late morning and VFR by
afternoon. -KT


Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ058>061-

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT
Wednesday for COZ072-076-078-079-081-084.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ073-080-082.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ075.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Wednesday for COZ074.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Wednesday
for COZ087-088.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Wednesday for COZ094.



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