Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...Extremely dangerous fire weather conditions for this afternoon... upper level disturbance over northern Utah is
beginning to eject northeast into Wyoming with strong winds aloft
pushing into Southern Colorado early this morning.  Mountain winds
are starting to increase, Pikes Peak is currently gusting to 81 mph,
and many areas along the Continental Divide are gusting in the 50 to
55 mph range.  Winds will only increase through the early morning
hours.  Temperatures remain mild across the plains due to winds and
wave cloud activity with 60s to lower 70s.  A few degrees of cooling
are expected through sunrise.

Today...the main concerns for today will be very strong winds over
the mountains this morning, transitioning down to the plains this
afternoon leading to extremely dangerous fire weather conditions.

As the upper level disturbance continues east into Wyoming, and
finally into western Nebraska this evening, strong jet energy will
move across Southern Colorado.  This will keep very strong winds
going over the higher terrain through much of the day.  Winds 50 mph
gusting to near 80 mph are expected, with some peaks maybe gusting
to near 100 mph.  Over the lower elevations, models are still
hinting at a period of downslope winds in the lee of the southern
Sangre de Cristo mountains this morning.  Shear profiles and
vertical structure still indicates the area from Walsenburg, south
to near Trinidad will likely see the strongest winds, through the
morning hours.  Gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible.  Those
traveling on I-25 will experience strong cross winds.

As we head into this afternoon, mixing will take over and spread
strong gusty winds east across the plains.  Locations over the San
Luis Valley, east into the I-25 corridor will see the strongest
winds this afternoon, with gusts nearing 40 mph.  These strong winds
will combine with critically dry humidity values and fuels to
produce extremely dangerous fire weather conditions.  Any outdoor
burning should be postponed including grilling.  If a fire should
start, it will spread very rapidly due to dangerous fire weather

An isolated shower is possible over the Central Mountains this
afternoon and evening as energy passes over northern Colorado.
Temperatures over the mountains should be warm enough for light
rain.  Over the plains, highs will likely top out in the upper 80s
to mid 90s this afternoon.

Tonight...winds are expected to subside this evening as the main
upper jet energy shifts east of Colorado.  Any isolated showers over
the Central Mountains should dissipate by sunset with dry conditions
expected to prevail into Tuesday morning.  A cold front is expected
to drop south late this evening over the plains, bringing with it a
northerly wind shift.  Temperatures should be cooler tonight with
lows in the 40s to mid 50s across the lower elevations. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...Cooler with Central Mountain Snow Showers...

The weather pattern will turn cooler starting Tuesday and continue
through much of the week before warming up again toward the weekend.
Temperatures Tuesday will be around 10 to 20 degrees cooler than
today...bringing afternoon highs back close to average for this time
of year.  The airmass will feel a lot more like fall across the
lower elevations and may even deliver some snow showers to the
central mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Forecast models
show enough moisture and orographic lift for a period of snow over
the central mountains centered around Tuesday evening.  Could be 1-3
inches of snow along the Continental Divide north of Cottonwood Pass
by Wednesday morning.  Some snow will also be possible south along
the divide to Monarch Pass but accumulations will be pretty light,
generally less than an inch.

As the disturbance moves through the Rockies Tuesday night, it will
send a good surge of cold air into the region.  Highs on Wednesday
will be another 5-10 degrees cooler than on Tuesday and finally a
few degrees below average.  This will pave the way for a possible
widespread freeze across the region Thursday morning. The mountains,
high valleys and northern El Paso County have already had a hard
freeze.  However, most of the plains have not.  Current forecast
lows across the plains for Thursday morning are in the upper 20s to
lower 30s but they may be revised lower as we get closer to time.

On Friday, temperatures could start out near freezing again in the
morning but then warm to above average levels again during the
afternoon.  The warming trend looks to continue through the weekend
with afternoon highs climbing back into familiar territory...10
to 20 degrees above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Smoke plume is visible from KPUB and KCOS and will carry a cloud
layer in TAFs to account. Otherwise...expect gusty southwest to
west winds to spread into the terminals in the next hour or two
and become more persist through through afternoon. Gusts up to 35
kts will be possible...with brief gusts to 40 kts not out of the
question through early afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening
as a cold front moves through the plains. This will shift winds
out of the north for both KCOS and KPUB after 01-02z...with winds
shifting around from the southeast by Tuesday morning. Could see
some VFR cigs at KCOS develop by tomorrow morning...but will carry
a scattered layer for now. -KT


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ221-222-

High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for COZ087-088.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ058-060-



AVIATION...KT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.