Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 010312
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
912 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
PLAINS.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS COLORADO THIS EVENING.  MODELS DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR...AND SPREADING THEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER TELLER AND
EL PASO COUNTIES...ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  GIVEN THE MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A THREAT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION...AND THE FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON AREA BURN SCARS.  OTHER
CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAIN TONIGHT AND DISSIPATING OR MOVING EAST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SO COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN EXPERIENCED TODAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP CARRY CONVECTION OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  IF A STRONGER CORE
CAN MOVE OVER A BURN SCAR...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONVECTION LINGERS INTO TUE EVENING OVER THE AREA...THOUGH WITH
LACK OF MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SUSPECT MOST STORMS WILL DIE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ON WED...SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING A MODEST TAP OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER SOUTHERN CO. ECMWF AND NAM HINT AT A WEAK WAVE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WED AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY HELP ENHANCE
CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...WILL
KEEP POPS LIMITED TO JUST THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS CREEP
BACK UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREA...WITH RATHER TOASTY LOW TO
MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 70S/80S HIGHER TERRAIN. PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON THU...WITH INCREASING SW FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO BY AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM NOW SLIGHTLY FASTER
BRINGING AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING INCREASING TSRA CHANCES OVER WRN/SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS
LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EURO A LITTLE
SLOWER...KEEPING DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION UNTIL
FRI MORNING. WILL LEAN A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND ONLY NUDGE
UP OPS SLIGHTLY OVER WRN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THU
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING THROUGH THU NIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. MAX TEMPS THU AGAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM WED NUMBERS.

ALL MODELS THEN PUSH VERY MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD ACROSS WRN CO
FROM FRI INTO SAT...AS WRN U.S. TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. NOW
APPEARS THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN BOTH DAYS WILL BE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES FARTHER EAST AS
COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE SURGE WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
OR MON. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS...TAPERING TO MAINLY ISOLATED ALONG AND EAST OF I25. EURO
SUGGESTS SUN/MON COULD BE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO...WHILE COLD FRONT
WAITS UNTIL LATE MON TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND KEEPS MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE BOTH DAYS...WITH AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION MON AFTERNOON OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES
WESTWARD BEHIND TO COLD FRONT. FORECAST FOR NOW IS A BROAD-BRUSH OF
POPS FROM SUN INTO MON...WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING AS A MORE
FALL LIKE AIR MASS FINALLY FILTERS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

KALS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. IF ONE OF THESE
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL IT WOULD BRING BRIEFLY
REDUCED VIS AND CIGS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 02Z/TUES. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
 KCOS...A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO BRING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 03Z/TUES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. REDUCED
VIS AND CIGS TO NEAR MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
PASS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH REGIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 02Z/TUES. IF ONE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL...IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS AND CIGS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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