Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 202128
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER CO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND DRYING OUT WITH TIME.  FOR THE REST
OF THIS EVENING...WILL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE REMNANTS OF THE MONSOON
PLUME ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH...AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT AS
WE SAW YESTERDAY...THIS IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR A STRONG
STORM OR TWO SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS FOR THE BURN SCARS.
THE WEST FORK COMPLEX SEEMS THE MOST VULNERABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST WALDO COULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY TOWARDS 4 PM.  MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH.  WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE OUTLIER STRONGER STORMS.  WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEARS ARE ONLY
RUNNING AROUND 25 KTS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO PERSISTENT.

FOR MONDAY...DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE WEST.  STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE SFC LEE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY STRONG
STORMS.  IN FACT...CAPE VALUES LOOK A TAD LOWER TOMORROW AND WITH H7
TEMPS APPROACHING 18C...SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 100S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  ALL IN ALL...RISK OF HEAVY RUNOFF PRODUCING
RAINFALL ON BURN SCARS LOOKS LOW. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER COLORADO. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE PUSHES A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM...12Z GFS AND
12Z EC KEEP A RIBBON OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE 12Z NAM WAS FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. STILL CONTINUED WARM TO HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS.

.WEDNESDAY...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR WEDNESDAY IS THE LOCATION OF THE
RIBBON OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NAM
CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHER WEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG INTO BACA...PROWERS AND KIOWA COUNTIES. GFS
IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...KEEPING MOST OF IT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CWA. EC IS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS. KEPT THE CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE POP GRID FOR WEDNESDAY DURING
THE DAY...WITH SILENT POPS NEAR THE BORDER...BUT INCREASED POPS
DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE. PAST TWO NAM
RUNS HAVE HAD DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 70F OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
FURTHER WEST....AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
INCREASE RESULTING IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. AMOUNT OF MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD INCREASE WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS. FURTHER
EAST...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE PLAINS AND GRIDS HAVE MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL POPS.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
THE PLAINS WHICH COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WINDS ALOFT MAY INCREASE WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROPAGATES TO THE
WEST...SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION DECREASING
THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OF THE MOUNTAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KALS AND KCOS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEGINNING AROUND 22Z.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KTS.  LEAST CHANCE WILL BE AT KPUB...SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THIS TAF FOR NOW.  -TSRA WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH A LINGERING THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 06Z.  SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT


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