Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 031750
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1150 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE SLOW TO GET GOING...BUT WITH HEATING SHOULD
SEE INCREASED CONVECTION SHORTLY. SO NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...DISTURBANCE TO BRING UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...BRINGING AN UPSWING
IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG THE MONSOON
PLUME ACROSS THE AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  WATER VALUES UPSTREAM OVER
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FROM LAST EVENINGS UPPER AIR RUN WERE ALL
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.  THIS AIRMASS WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY.  THE
DISTURBANCE ITSELF WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO GET CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE
WOULD FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING AND THE EASTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON.  SO...THE WESTERN
MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE ADJACENT HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS
VALLEYS...WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE BEST CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY STORM CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
RESULTING IN LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE UP A LITTLE AS COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS...SO THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GET UP
TO ABOUT 35 OR 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS COULD PROMOTE SOME STORM ROTATION RESULTING
IN MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW STORMS...ULTIMATELY RESULTING
IN HAIL GROWTH UP TO AN INCH AND DIAMETER AND DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 60 MPH.

ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH THE MORE INTENSE STUFF WILL LIKELY BE OVER FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME
ACTIVITY MAY STILL LINGER ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER...BUT MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL ALREADY BE SPREADING IN TO THE REST OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO NEBRASKA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...GRIDS HAVE ISOLATED POPS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH COULD BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGES DEVELOPS OVER NEW MEXICO
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A MOSTLY DRY AND WARM DAY IN THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE CWA. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DRY
AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION. GRIDS HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANTICIPATE STORMS WOULD BE HIGH
BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. GRIDS HAVE AN INCREASE IN POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY. THE SPECIFICS OF THE MONSOON PLUME CAN BE TOUGH TO
FORECAST SO TIMING COULD CHANGE. DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH
WILL TEND TO LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE PLAINS. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH KCOS
AND KPUB PROBABLY SEEING THE BEST CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THRU 00Z. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...28



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