Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Updated to end the Red Flag Warning for today. Relative humidity
values have increased behind a cold front across the Plains. Winds
will remain gusty through the evening before dissipating.
Conditions over the San Luis Valley will continue to improve over
the next hour.  Mozley


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Cold front crossing the region this afternoon...


An impressive cold front was crossing the fcst area. Boundary pretty
much was along the US50 corridor at 2 pm. Temp gradients were rather
impressive, withe 50s up in ne CO while temps were well into the 80s
south of US50. Winds were gusty from the north behind the front(35-
45 mph) while south of the front down along the CO/NM border winds
were 25 to 35 mph from the wsw. It was very windy in the mtns withe
near hurricane force winds at mtn top (see Monarch wind trace). The
valleys were also very windy.

Rest of today...

Cold front will continue to drop south and should be down to the NM
border around 5 pm. Temps will drop a good 15-20F after the front
goes by. Winds will shift to the north and be gusty at 30 to 40 mph.

Although Red Flag conditions have technically ceased behind the
front (RH > 15%), have decided to keep the Red Flag warning in
effect due to the strong gusty, albeit cooler, northerly winds. The
grasses are bone dry and any fire would spread rapidly.


Winds should decrease quickly after sunset. Main concern for tonight
is low temps. withe clear skies, light winds and relatively dry air
over the plains temps should fall to below freezing most area, withe
lows expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30F most of plains.
Have issued a freeze warning for those areas which have not reached
freezing this Autumn season. In the mtns and valleys, teens and 20s
will be widespread.


A very nice day is anticipated. winds will come around to southerly
and will be quite light. Temps will be slightly below seasonable
values. Skies will be sunny.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Generally quiet conditions are expected through the extended
period. There is high model uncertainty by late in the work week
into next weekend along with high ensemble spread. This gives less
confidence in the last couple days of the extended forecast.

Sunday night through Thursday...high pressure will give way to
westerly zonal flow across the region for much of the week. This
will keep dry and mild conditions across southern Colorado through
this period. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s with perhaps a
few low 80s across the Plains. No precipitation is expected
through Thursday. There will be a weak cold front drop south
across the Plains by Wednesday with nothing more than a northerly
wind shift.

Friday and Saturday...models differ greatly by Friday. The GFS
brings a quick moving strong trough across the area through
Saturday. This would bring strong winds to the area Friday night
into Saturday morning. The next round of precipitation would be
expected over the mountains, with very little expected on the
Plains at this time. The ECMWF develops a closed low over the
Desert Southwest and has it lingering there until early next week.
The ECMWF solution would bring more widespread precipitation to
the area and much cooler temperatures to Colorado.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.


Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT Sunday for COZ083-089-093-095>099.



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