Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
919 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 920 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Adjust near/short term grids and also allowed the Red Flag Warning
to expire at 9 PM MDT this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016


A very dry airmass is in place over the region today and winds have
been meeting Red Flag criteria across most of the area.  Winds
should lessen on the plains...but persistent westerly flow into the
lee side trof will keep critical fire weather conditions along the
lower east facing slopes and adjacent plains into the evening will maintain current Red Flag warning until 9 PM.

Strong jet stream punching through the western U.S will cause mtn
top winds to increase quickly after 00z. Already seeing wind gusts a
little over 70 mph at times across Pikes Peak and MYP this
afternoon.  Have upgraded the high wind watch to a high wind warning
for the peaks above 10000 feet starting at 00z given current
conditions.  Best mountain wave parameter set up occurs during the
overnight hours...with peak period between 06z and 15z.  Profiles
look best across the Wet Mountains and Sangre De Cristo mountains
where best reverse shear will be in place and there will be a chance
for a mtn wave induced critical layer to set up.  Inversions appear
a little too low in model soundings to help reflect winds down into
the lower elevations of the I-25 think high wind
warnings will be confined to the mountain zones. HRRR is also
hitting the southern I-25 corridor from time to time (mainly
along/west of I-25 from Walsenburg area to the NM line) with some
high winds after 06z. A little less confidence in this
occuring...but parameters look favorable enough to go ahead and
hoist the high wind highlights. Mtn peaks should stay windy through
most of the day tomorrow so extended the high wind warnings through
4 PM.  Its likely as the mtn wave decays...lower elevations may be
able to be taken down sooner...but will let later shifts refine this
as needed.

Relative humidity values will remain low tonight with poor humidity
recoveries expected for most areas...but in particular for the
southeast mountains and lower eastern slopes. This should result in
a faster onset of critical fire weather conditions for Monday so
have started the Red Flag warning at 9 AM.  It will take a little
longer for winds to spread eastward across the plains...and winds in
model soundings aren`t as strong farther east within the surface
trof axis.  However...with deep mixing we should be able to tap
winds in excess of 25 mph and given the very dry conditions it won`t
take much to experience rapid fire spread.  So all Fire Weather
Watch areas have been upgraded to a Red Flag warning with the
afternoon package. The lower elevations of Chaffee and Lake counties
may also hit critical fire weather conditions again...but for
now...conditions do not look widespread enough across the zone for
an upgrade.

Given the volatile conditions in place...any activities that could
spark a fire should be curtailed tonight and Monday.  Any fire
starts that do occur have the potential for extreme fire behavior
and rapid rates of fire spread.  This will be particularly true
along and west of I-25 where winds will be strongest.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

...Continued Very Dry...

Not much hope in the extended for any significant precipitation. In
fact, aside from the late Tue through Wed period, there may not be
any precip at all. The only good news is that beyond Mon night, it
looks like winds will not be terribly strong across our CWA and
cooler, though still above average, temps will prevail.

Cooling will begin on Tuesday, following a diffuse cold frontal
passage. Should see temps generally in the 60s to lower 70s for
highs on Tue. Some light showers could move into the Sawatch Range
by late in the afternoon or early eve.

Main wx system in the extended will be the trough on Wed. This
system once showed some potential for amplification, but the last 24
hours or so of model runs have made it fairly clear that the
progressive wave solution will win out this time. So, instead of the
cutoff low over SE CO or NM, looks like a rather quick-moving trough
across N CO. This system will bring some light snow showers to Lake
County, which could possibly accumulate to an inch or so locally,
and possibly a few snowflakes to Teller County and the Pikes Peak
Region early Wed. But this is the optimistic solution, and the
latest NAM suggests that even the northern zones could remain

Following this system, a summer-like ridge will strengthen over the
western third of the nation, and a steady warm-up will occur
through the end of the week and into the weekend. POPs during this
time will basically remain near zero. Winds aloft and near surface
will remain generally light during this time. The next chance of any
precip will hold off until early the following week at the earliest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Conditions will remain VFR over the TAF sites.  Main challenges will
continue to be with the winds.  KCOS and KALS should continue to see
breezy west winds through 01-02z...while it could be more
intermittent at KPUB.  There is a chance of LLWS at KCOS after 09z
tonight...though appears that wind shear may stay just above 2kft
for now.  There will certainly be pockets of LLWS tonight closer to
the mountains as Mtn top winds increase to around 60 kts by 06z.
West winds will spread down into the lower elevations again on
Monday with gusts to 35 kts possible at all three terminals in the
afternoon. -KT



Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for COZ221-222-

High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for COZ087-088.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT Monday for COZ058-060-061-066-


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