Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231154
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS THIS MORNING...

UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
ALONG THE CONTDVD BASED ON WEB CAMS.  HAVE EVEN SEEN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
SAGUACHE AND JUST SOUTH VILLA GROVE IN CDOT CAMS.  MEANWHILE...COLD
FRONT HAS CROSSED THE PALMER DIVIDE AND STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILL IN
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS OF 4 AM.

AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE RAIN/SNOW SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MODELS ARE A LOT HEAVIER HANDED WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND
THAT LOOKS REASONABLE AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS A LITTLE SHARPER...AND
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK MORE NORTHERLY...AND EVEN A TAD
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD RACE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 12-13Z...WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH AT TIMES.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS RACE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE
THROUGH 15Z...THEN ACROSS THE NRN RATON RIDGE AND LOWER EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WETS AND SANGRES THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z.  NAM12 AND
ESPECIALLY ITS 06Z RUN HAS REALLY COME IN HOT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE SE MTS...INDICATING 5-10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  GFS SHOWS GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES.  RAP13 HAS AROUND 2-
4 INCHES ACROSS NRN EL PASO...AND 1-6 ACROSS THE SE MTS/SRN I-25
CORRIDOR.  WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RES MODELS ARE PROBABLY CORRECT IN KEEPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  ONCE
THE MAIN UPPER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.  THAT SAID...HAVE
SEEN CASES LIKE THIS WHERE A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND CAN ACCUMULATE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WHILE A COUPLE MILES EITHER SIDE GET
NEXT TO NOTHING.  SO THE CONVECTIVE WILD CARD WILL BE A CHALLENGE
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. EITHER WAY...NAM12 SEEMS TO BE
SUFFERING FROM TOO MUCH CONVECTION IN THE MODEL RESULTING IN AMOUNTS
THAT LOOK TOO HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD.  HAVE TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS A
RAP AND HRRR BLEND FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL HEAVY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAILING BACK SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING WEAKENS.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OROGRAPHIC SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.  CURRENT
SET OF HEADLINES PARES OUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AT 5 PM AND THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BY 11 PM
THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THESE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TAKEN DOWN
SOONER...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AM HESITANT TO MODIFY ENDING TIMES JUST YET.  CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN HEADLINES ABOVE 11KFT CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE EVENT GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT SNOW EVEN THOUGH IT MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR A
TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE SE MTS BY
MIDNIGHT. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND POPS(PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES).

OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AT TIMES(ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS)...EXPECT A
BASICALLY DRY AND MILD METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN TO GRACE THE
CWFA...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS ARE PROJECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY AS
ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE REGION...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 58 AND 60 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...LOW-GRADE TO NIL POPS AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO PROJECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MONDAY INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING.

THEN...AS BASICALLY DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
WEEKEND...PROJECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON-PLACE IN
COMBINATION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...RECENT GFS40 AND DGEX SOLUTIONS INDICATE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALLOWS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

HOWEVER...THE DGEX...ECMWF AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS ALL SUGGEST THAT
THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FINALLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

BAND OF -SHRASN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PACKING NORTH WINDS 20-40 KT.  THIS FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ALL OF
SE CO BY 12-13Z.  BRUNT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE RATON
RIDGE...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK/TELLER
COUNTY...THE WET MOUNTAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SRN I-
25 CORRIDOR.  IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  KCOS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH 15Z...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
QUICK UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AT THE TERMINAL.  KPUB MAY SEE A BRIEF -
SHRASN VCNTY OF THE AIRPORT AS WELL...THOUGH PROBABILITY LOOKS
LOWER.  MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH
SHOWERS.  THIS WILL BE A QUICK BLAST...WITH SHOWERS ENDING FOR THE
MOST PART BY 16Z. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING FOR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB WITH GUSTS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 25 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY -SHSN TODAY SO WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.  SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AT KALS FROM
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.

WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WILL START
TO SEE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ064-
066-068.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ059-
061.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$


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