Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 160528
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1028 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

AN UPR RIDGE AXIS WL BE MOVING ACRS THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUE.  ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS TOMORROW OVR WRN CO...THE FLOW ALOFT
WL BECOME SWRLY AHEAD OF AN UPR TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST.  A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THAT TROF...WL MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON TUE AND WL BRING SOME MID LEVEL MSTR INTO WRN CO...ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CHANCES TO THE CONTDVD.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MSTR WL SPREAD EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...CLOUD COVER WL
PROBABLY BE THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT WARMING.  FOR NOW WL GO WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS. THERE APPEARS TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS...BUT MODELS HANDLE
EACH DIFFERENT...IN TIMING...TRACK AND WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST...MODELS ARE DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS BRINGS THE UPPER TROUGH DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT KEEPS A BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE PICKING UP SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. THE SAN JUANS LOOK TO
BE THE FAVORED AREA GIVEN THE MORE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST OROGRAPHIC
FLOW. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE GFS HAS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN STORM TRACK...ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN TROUGH COMING
ACROSS ON THURSDAY. IT TOO LIMITS SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
KEEPING THE PLAINS DRY...WHILE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE PICKS UP A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE LATEST NAM IS THE SLOWEST OF THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. IT BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IT IS PRODUCING A PERIOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO INCLUDING THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FOR
MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

SO...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT SNOWFALL
FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS FOR THE PLAINS...ITS UP IN THE AIR
AT THIS POINT AND DEPENDS ON STORM STRENGTH AND TRACK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

BEYOND FRIDAY...THERE IS A VERY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FOLDS ACROSS
COLORADO WITH GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO...WHILE THE GFS HAS JUST LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE
A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MEMBERS...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT ECMWF PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND
ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOSITURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW



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