Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281659
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1059 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
SATELLITE AND RADARS INDICATING A FEW LIGHT WAA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WITH ENHANCED CLOUDS AND A
BETTER COVERAGE OF ECHOES SPREADING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME.

LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
SNOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND EASTERN
MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT OR ABOVE 9000 FT...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TO WARNINGS.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...1 TO
LOCALLY 2 FEET OF WET HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE LOWER MT AREAS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY...THE WET MT VALLEY AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 6000
FEET...WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA...WITH 1 TO 4
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CITY...MAKING FOR A MESSY FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING IN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM IS INDICATING CAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND
BACA COUNTY. THIS...ALONG WITH AMPLE SHEAR...WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE THETA-E AXIS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES.  AT ANY RATE...THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY
FRI...THEN CRAWLS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER FRI NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR
THROUGH ABOUT MID-AFTERNOON FRI...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH...ALLOWING LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME INCREASING W-NW OVERNIGHT. RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND 6000
FEET FRI MORNING WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD TO ABOUT 7000 FEET DURING
THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND PRECIP INTENSITY
DECREASES...WITH A SLUSHY FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS
COLORADO SPRINGS BEFORE SWITCH BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OCCURS AROUND MIDDAY. UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM CANON CITY
WESTWARD THROUGH SALIDA AND UP TO BUENA VISTA COULD ALSO SEE
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW FRI MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
MOST MOUNTAINS/PALMER DIVIDE AND UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY LOOK ON
TRACK...WITH A SHARP DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 6-7K FEET. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE DAY FRI...THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HOLD STORM
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DOWN. STILL APPEARS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THU-FRI WILL EXCEED AN INCH IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH POCKETS OF UP
TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS
AND PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL FRI...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 30S/40S ACROSS THE AREA.

STILL APPEARS WE`LL SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT AS FIRST UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE
SECONDARY ENERGY CARVES OUT A NEW LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. TOUGH TO
RULE OUT SHOWERS COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MENTION IN MOST ZONES THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. AS UPPER
LOW OVER AZ SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...UPWARD
MOTION STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TURNING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SUN.
SHOULD THUS SEE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNING TO MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS
FROM OVERNIGHT SAT INTO AT LEAST MON MORNING. MAY NEED A NEW ROUND
OF HIGHLIGHTS FOR SNOW FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS...THOUGH IN GENERAL
28/00Z MODELS HAVE LESS PRECIP AND A WEAKER LOW THAN SOLUTIONS
FROM 24 HRS AGO. WILL KEEP POPS RATHER HIGH AND TEMPS COOL SUN
INTO MON...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF MON EVENING AS LOW WALLOWS
BACK NORTH AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TUE AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THOUGH WITH FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING SUSPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TO FIRE AT LEAST ISOLATED WEAK
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE INTO THU.
MAX TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES TUE...THEN PUSH
TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS WED/THU AS HEIGHT FINALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

MAJOR SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
BOTH SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET AND MAINLY RAIN BELOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE MOST INTENSE AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAS ANIMAS...BACA...OTERO...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...
STRONG WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. KALS CAN EXPECT TO BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WAVES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. KCOS...KPUB TAF SITES CAN EXPECT TO BE IN
AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH THESE
CONDITIONS BECOMING DOMINANT AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ058>061-073-075-080>082.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COZ062-063-072-074-076>079-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
COZ066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW



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