Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Weak upper level circulation centered near Pueblo this morning, with
a few light showers/sprinkles rotating around the low over the
eastern mountains and plains as of 10z. Circulation is forecast by
most models to drift slowly northeastward today, suggesting
strongest forcing for precip will be over the eastern plains,
especially along and north of the Arkansas River. Farther west, from
the I-25 corridor back into the mountains, moisture and instability
remain plentiful, so another round of afternoon convection looks
likely to develop over the higher terrain early in the afternoon,
spreading across lower elevations late in the day. Hunch is I-25
corridor may see a downturn in storms versus the past few days as
weak subsidence behind departing upper feature suppresses storms
somewhat, with NAM and various versions of the HRRR supporting this
scenario. Upper level steering currents remain weak and rather
disorganized, so slow storm motions again may aide in increasing
flood risk, especially across burn scars. Clouds and moisture will
keep max temps on the cool side once again this afternoon at many
locations, with readings staying below 90f across the entire area.
Convection gradually ends this evening, though nearly saturated air
mass suggests a few sprinkles or light showers may persist past
midnight, especially over the far eastern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...A Drying Trend over the Plains...

Sunday-Sunday night...Upper level circulation across northeastern
Colorado early Sunday morning continues to lift north and east into
Northwestern Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening. Latest models
continue to suggest drier air within the weak northerly flow aloft,
along with some subsidence associated with the passing disturbance,
will lead to less expected convection across the eastern plains on
Sunday, though can`t rule out a few isolated storms. Further west
across the mountains and high valleys, enough monsoonal moisture
remains in place for more scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms. Storms that do develop will be slow moving and will have
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
in and around area burn scars. Temperatures on Sunday to be slightly
below seasonal levels.

Monday-Tuesday...Upper high progged to build across the state with
flow aloft becoming weak easterly into the middle of the week.
Again, latest models continue to indicate drier air working into the
region, and along with the easterly steering flow, should continue
to see a lull in convection across the eastern plains, though can`t
totally rule out a few afternoon storms. Enough residual moisture
and strong summer solar heating will lead to daily chances of
afternoon and evening storms across the higher terrain and high
valleys, with slow movement of storms again leading to possible
locally heavy rainfall. Warm air aloft under the high will lead to
temperatures warming back to at and slightly above seasonal levels.

Wednesday-Friday...A slow uptick in convection expected, especially
for areas over and near the higher terrain, with some increase in
monsoonal moisture within developing southerly flow aloft, as
high pressure builds back across the southern high plains and
into the Southern Rockies. Models differ for Friday and beyond,
with the EC drying the area out for next weekend, whereas the GFS
keeps the monsoonal plume across the area. At any rate, stayed
close to blended model pops, with isolated to scattered storms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening, with the best coverage over
the higher terrain. Temperatures to remain near seasonal levels
through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Old monsoonal disturbance still swirling over the flight area this
morning. It will drift only very slowly eastward today. The
disturbance will trigger another round of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms across the flight area.  Primary risks
will include lightning and heavy rain. Additionally, local flash
flooding, gusty winds to around 50 mph and small hail will be
possible. Areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR GIGS and VSBYS can be
expected through precipitation. These conditions will be
fairly scattered through about 21z and then become widespread
across the plains east of the I-25 corridor after 21z. Most
activity should diminish from west to east by around midnight
although some activity could linger along the Kansas border
past midnight.

All 3 terminal sites, KCOS, KPUB and KALS, will be subject to
thunderstorms today and the general conditions described above.




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