Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Dry west to northwest flow will be found over southeast and south
central CO tonight and Sun.  Although there will be areas of gusty
winds over the higher mtn areas, the lower elevations are expected
to have relatively light winds tonight and Sun.  Temps on Sun will
be a little warmer than today, and most locations should see highs
that are slightly above average.  Most of the southeast plains
should see highs around 60. The San Luis Valley should see highs in
the upper 40s to around 50, and the upper Arkansas River valley
should see highs in the lower 50s. Ahead of a weak disturbance to
the north of the area on Sun, high level clouds are expected to move
over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Sunday night-Monday...A dry westerly flow pattern continues across
the region, with increasing winds expected over and near the higher
terrain through the day Monday, ahead of an embedded short wave
translating across the Great Basin. This will lead to warming
temperatures overnight over the higher terrain, with highs expected
back above seasonal levels in the 60s across the lower elevations
and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain on Monday.

Monday night-Tuesday night...Increasing northwest flow continues
across the area, as the Great Basin short wave translates across the
Northern Rockies through the day Tuesday and into the High Plains
Tuesday night. This system continues to be to too far north to bring
much in the way of precipitation to the area, save for a few showers
across the central mountains Monday night through Tuesday morning,
with the system`s passing cold front bringing slightly cooler
temperatures to the area on Tuesday.

Wednesday-Saturday...Longer range models continue to indicate a dry
and warm pattern in the offing through at least the early part of
the Thanksgiving Holiday, with long wave ridging building across
Desert SW and into the Rockies through Thursday. This will lead dry
weather with high temperatures warming back to above seasonal levels
in the 60s across the lower elevations and into the 40s and 50s
across the higher terrain both Wednesday and Thanksgiving day.
Models do indicate increasing westerly flow aloft on Friday, as
Eastern Pacific energy translates across the Northern Tier of
States, with another warm and dry day expected across the area.
The latest EC then rebuilds the ridge across the Rockies for Saturday
and Sunday, whereas the GFS has more energy digging across the
Rockies, bringing chances of precipitation to the higher terrain
along and west of the ContDvd. Time will tell.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 250 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected thru the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.  High level clouds are expected to move over southern CO on
Sun.  Winds at the terminal forecast sites are mostly expected to be
under 10 kts.




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