Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241119
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
419 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY DIGGING
ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST. REGIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH IR DATA INDICATING A
FEW COLD POCKETS ACROSS THE GUNNISON VALLEY AND WESTERN PARK COUNTY
AT THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE GREAT BASIN
RIDGE FLATTENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH PAC NW SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WARMEST READINGS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WEST COAST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN CHRISTMAS DAY AS 120 KNOT
JET MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CALIFORNIA. MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DEEPER/STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THE PAST 24
HRS...WITH 00Z/06Z GFS AND NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ALL SHOWING A CLOSED
LOW OVER UTAH BY THU EVENING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW DURING
THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS FAVORABLE
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGEST 18Z-03Z. HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL START SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY...THOUGH BY
00Z MOST OF THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE HEAVY
SNOW BEGIN. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SEEMS ON TRACK...AND WILL LEAVE THIS HIGHLIGHT IN PLACE
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SNOW AMOUNTS.

FARTHER EAST...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THU AFTERNOON...BUT MAIN SHOW WILL TAKE PLACE THU NIGHT
AS LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST CO AND COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS. WITH FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKING
FROM THE 4 CORNERS THU EVENING INTO EASTERN CO FRI MORNING...LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A FAVORABLE E-NE TRAJECTORY...LEADING
TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
OVER TELLER COUNTY AFTER 00Z...CONTINUING UNTIL AT LEAST 12Z-15Z
FRI. VARIOUS SNOW AMOUNT ALGORITHMS POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
NEAR WARNING CRITERIA (AT LEAST 6-8 INCHES) SNOWFALL...SO WILL
HOIST A WATCH FOR PIKES PEAK/TELLER/NRN EL PASO ZONES STARTING AT
00Z AND CONTINUING INTO FRI MORNING. TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BE
JUST SLIGHTLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS FARTHER
SOUTH OVER THE SANGRES/WETS/SRN I-25 CORRIDOR...THOUGH AN
ADVISORY FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRI MAY BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT...AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WRING OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
BY 18Z FRI. REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS (INCLUDING COS AND PUB) AND
MOST VALLEYS WILL SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS THU NIGHT INTO
FRI...THOUGH AMOUNTS FALL OFF QUICKLY TOWARD THE KS BORDER. SOME
WEAK SECONDARY ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY KEEP LIGHTER SNOW GOING FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMS SHOULD BE FINISHED BY ABOUT 18Z FRI. AFTER A
RATHER MILD CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL
DROP CONSIDERABLY FRI...AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY WELL BELOW
FREEZING WITH CLOUDS/COLD ADVECTION AND SNOW.

WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT UPPER TROUGH DROPS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MAX TEMPS BOTH SAT/SUN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS/ARKANSAS VALLEY STRUGGLING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE
HOURS SUN AFTERNOON. RENEWED PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. BEST DYNAMIC LIFT STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...THOUGH UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE
SUN THROUGH THE DAY MON...WHILE SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GENERATES SOME LIGHT SNOW THESE AREAS AS
WELL. 00Z MODELS SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
MAY COME MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND
COLD AIR DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS...THOUGH WON`T JUMP TOO QUICKLY
ONTO THIS SOLUTION AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED UPPER LOW CUTS
OFF TOO FAR WEST TO GENERATE MUCH LIFT OVER COLORADO. IN EITHER
CASE...COLD AIR WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING MON/TUE WITH ONLY SOME
MINOR WARMING ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIME EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR COZ081-082-084.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ058-060-066-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW


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