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000
FXUS65 KPUB 222110
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
310 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

CONVECTIVE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE THE PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING
DEVELOPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG(OVER EASTERN SECTIONS) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN
ADDITION...AS ALWAYS...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS NEAR/OVER RECENT BURN SCARS(ESPECIALLY THE WALDO
CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS).

FOR WEDNESDAY(FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT)...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
DUE TO PROJECTED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

IN ADDITION...RECENT NEAR/SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT A HEALTHY DRY-LINE WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON(WHICH MATCHES QUITE NICELY WITH LATEST SPC 2ND DAY
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WFO PUEBLO CONTINUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DRY-
LINE CLOSELY.

FINALLY...MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

WED NIGHT AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE TROF AXIS MOVING INTO KS BY EARLY THU MORNING.  WED
EVENING A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SERN PLAINS...WITH
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING SOME PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE SERN
PLAINS AND MTNS BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE NAM HAS MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
THAN THE GFS...BUT WL GO WITH ISOLD COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST...
INCLUDING SOME TSTMS. SOME ISOLD PCPN MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD. THE NAM HOLDS ONTO SOME PCPN ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...WHILE THE GFS ENDS ALL PCPN BY LATE NIGHT.

AFTER THU MORNING...DRY WX IS THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY AS AN UPR RIDGE MOVES OVR THE AREA.
THU AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...SRN PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY FREMONT
COUNTY...AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE IN THESE AREAS AND RH VALUES FALL
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  TOO MARGINAL AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

FRI AFTERNOON THE NAM DEVELOPS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR SOME OF THE MTN
AREAS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE WX DRY. WL HOLD OFF ON PUTTING ANY
PCPN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL FRI EVENING ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS STILL DRY
DURING THAT PERIOD.

BY SAT MORNING AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NV...WHICH
THEN MOVES ACRS UT DURING THE DAY. THE TRACK THE STORM WILL TAKE
AFTER THAT IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CO...REACHING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY
06Z SUN...AND THEN HEADING NORTHWARD TO WRN SD BY 18Z SUN. THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH THE LOW CENTER ENDING UP
OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO BY 06Z SUN...AND THEN IT HEAD NORTHEAST AND
ENDS UP IN WRN NE BY 18Z SUN. EITHER WAY...THE CONTDVD...THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND ERN MTS WL HAVE PCPN. WITH THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK
THAT THE GFS SHOWS...THE SERN PLAINS GETS LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...WHILE THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF THE ECMWF BRINGS PCPN TO
THAT AREA MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN. FOR NOW WL LEAN CLOSER
TO THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR MON...THE GFS HAS AN
UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE WRN STATES AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAR
OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATE...RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WX OVR THE
FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE SOME SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS. THE ECMWF STILL HAS AN UPR LOW OVR SWRN SD AND KEEPS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN OVR MUCH OF CO. FOR TUE BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT
STRONG UPR LOW OVR OVR IA/IL...LEAVING OUR AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED NEAR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77