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000
FXUS65 KPUB 140527
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...Windy Tomorrow...

Currently...

Breezy to windy conditions were occurring in the San
Juans...southern Sangre de Cristos and across the southern part of
the San Luis Valley. It was also a bit windy across the tops of the
remainder of the mountains. Over the plains, winds were light. Temps
at 2 pm were much cooler than this time yesterday, with readings
mainly in the 60s plains and valleys, with 30s and 40s in the mtns.
The warmest temps were in the San Luis valley with readings aoa 70F.

Except for a cloud or two over the mtn tops , skies were clear.

Tonight...

Moderate west to southwest flow will continue over the region tonight
in advance of a strong trough of low pressure moving towards the
region. Winds will keep up tonight over the higher terrain and the
eastern slopes of the mtns, but do not expect these gusty winds to
reach the plains. The exception to this may be around the greater
Walsenburg area.

Temps tonight will be in the 40s most of the plains with a few 50s
across far southeast CO. Any precip should remain well south and
east of Colorado. However, we will likely see some low clouds of
possibly fog tonight over the far east plains. A few of these clouds
may sneak up the lower ark river valley towards Pueblo.

Tomorrow...

The strong trough will move across the region around 18Z tomorrow.
This will force a cold front to move across the higher terrain
tomorrow morning and across the plains around noon-ish. Winds will
shift to the north and become quite gusty, especially across
northern El Paso county and the eastern plains generally east of La
Junta.

Red Flag conditions will be likely across the San Luis valley as it
should dry out significantly this region and gusts to 25 to 35 mph
should be widespread. Marginal fire danger will be possible across
the I-25 corridor from south of Pueblo down the the NM border.
Although it will be windy across the eastern plains, RH values
should be well above red flag criteria as cooler and somewhat
moister air advects in behind the front.

Max temps tomorrow should be similar to todays max temps, although
it may be several degrees warmer across the far eastern plains of
CO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Saturday night-Sunday night...Northwest flow aloft slowly moderates
through the day Sunday, as Saturday`s passing upper trough across
the Rockies continues east into the Upper Midwest. Gusty
northerly across the eastern plains Saturday afternoon, behind the
system`s associated dry cold front, will slowly diminish through
the evening hours, leading to a chilly overnight lows Saturday
night. With that said, will issue a freeze watch for Crowley,
Otero, Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca Counties from 3 am to 8 am
Sunday, with lows expected to drop into the upper 20s and lower
30s. Some concern that winds across southeast portions of Baca
County will stay up too long to prevent sub freezing temperatures,
however, will include the whole county in the watch at this time.
I did not include eastern Fremont County in the watch, as it
looks like there will be enough of a westerly drainage wind to
preclude sub freezing temperatures, with the rest of the southeast
plains already seeing an end to the growing season. Warming aloft
behind the passing system, along with weak, albeit, easterly
upslope flow across the lower elevations will lead a beautiful
fall day across the area on Sunday, with highs at to slightly
below seasonal levels in the 60s across the lower elevations and
mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, under mainly sunny
skies.

Monday-Friday...Upper level ridging progged to build across the
Rockies Monday and Tuesday, with more westerly flow aloft progged
across the area on Wedensday, as a weak upper level system
translates across the Northern Tier. This will lead to more warm and
dry weather across the area through the beginning of the week, with a
slight cool down behind another weak and dry cold front on
Wednesday. Dry and warmer weather looks to continue on Thursday,
with models indicating a deep upper trough digging across the Great
Basin, which will move across the Rockies later Friday and into
early next weekend. Models differ on strength of this system, though
should see increasing chances of rain showers and higher elevation
snow along and west of the ContDvd through the day Friday, along
with cooler and more unsettled weather areawide into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs for the forecast
area, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. A
surface cold front is expected to drop south across the plains and
the Palmer Divide around midday, so look for w-sw winds across the
eastern plains ahead of the front to increase and become gusty
through the late morning and right around noon, then as the front
moves through winds will shift to a more n-ne direction and
remain brisk through the late aftn and early eve. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
COZ089-093-095>099.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE