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520
FXUS65 KPUB 202124
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Currently...

Skies mostly sunny for the most part across the cwa. ISolated
thunderstorms were noted over the S Sangres S of KTAD. Towering
cumulus were noted along the mtns, and along a lee trough that
extended from E of KLAA down  towards Kim, CO.

It was quite warm across the region with temps in the 90s across
nearly all of the plains. The warmest temp was in Pueblo with a
reading of 97F.

Instability was quite high east of the lee trough, with MLCAPE of
3500 J/KG with effective shear values of about 20 knots.

Rest of the afternoon...

One or two strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the lee trough this afternoon into early
this evening. Storms should push off to the east-southeast and
should move into KS by early evening.

Other storms will be possible along the mtns/plains interface,
especially south of Canon City.

This evening into tonight...

Simulations show that a weak short wave will move across the region
late this evening into the early morning hours. The HRRR has been
pretty consistent on indicating one or two storms will form across
the Pikes Peak region around 10-11 pm and move east-southeast across
the plains. For this reason have included some low POPs across this
region for later this evening.

Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies across the region with low
temps 60s plains and 40s and 50s in the mtns.

Tomorrow...

We should see an uptick in convection across most of the cwa
tomorrow afternoon as a weak boundary is expected to move down the
plain. Temps tomorrow will actually be a degree or two higher
tomorrow. Boundary should stall over far se CO and this will be a
focusing area for convection. SPC has this area in marginal risk
tomorrow and given the instability and inverted V soundings, strong
gusty winds and some hail may be an concern.

Mtns/plains interface may also see a slightly better chance of some
thunder tomorrow along with a couple of storms in the interior mtn
locations. Several 100F readings are likely along the lower ark rvr
valley tomorrow. /Hodanish


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Cooling down for the Weekend...

Wednesday night-Friday...Weak to moderate west to northwest flow
aloft continues to be advertised across the State, with the center of
large upper high across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico,
and several embedded waves moving through the stronger flow aloft
across the Northern Tier of States. Any high based convection across
the area late Wednesday afternoon looks to diminish with the setting
of the sun Wednesday evening. A stronger wave moving across the
northern Rockies Wednesday night sends a front across the eastern
Plains through the day Thursday, with low level moisture pooling
along and behind the front. This front will be the focus for storms
across eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon and evening, as it pushes
southeast and west across all of the southeastern plains by early
Friday morning. There could be a few stronger storms across northern
portions of the area, generally along and north of the Palmer Dvd
into northeastern Colorado, where the best shear will be located.
Slightly cooler temperatures will be noted across the area Thursday,
with a more noticeable cool down expected on Friday, with highs
mainly in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations and mainly
50s and 60s across the higher terrain. Morning stratus and
easterly upslope flow look to keep the eastern plains too stable
on Friday, though with the upslope flow, will likely see some
storms develop across the eastern mountains and immediate adjacent
plains Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday-Sunday...Models differ on Saturday, with the latest ECMWF
still indicating another surge of cooler air digging across the area
on Saturday, whereas the latest GFS is not as strong with the push
of cooler air, keeping the main front across the northern high
plains through the period. The GFS keeps moist south to southeast
flow across the area Saturday and Sunday, owning to better chances
of afternoon showers and storms, especially across the southeast
mountains and plains, where as the EC solution would keep the plains
generally too stable. For now, stayed close to model blended
solutions which keeps slight chances across eastern Colorado through
the weekend. Either way, temperatures look to stay generally below
seasonal levels through the weekend.

Monday-Tuesday...Upper level ridging rebuilds across the Desert SW
and into the Great Basin, supporting a warming trend back to around
seasonal levels into early next week. Some moisture embedded within
the weak northwest flow aloft will also support increasing chances
of afternoon and evening showers and storms across the area, most
notable across the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. winds will be diurnally
driven tonight. A weak weather disturbance will move across east
central CO late this evening and there is a very slight chance of
some -TSRA in the vicinity of KCOS between roughly around 05-06 UTC
later this evening.

A weak surge will come down the plains tomorrow morning and this may
keep the winds northeasterly at KCOS and KPUB a good part of the day
before becoming upslope late in the afternoon. There will also be an
outside chance of a TSRA at KPUB and KCOS tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH