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000
FXUS65 KPUB 021126 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
426 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

PCPN HAS MOVED OUT OF SERN CO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
OVR EL PASO COUNTY COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING...WHICH WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.  RADAR AND OBS STILL
INDICATING SNOW OVR THE MTNS AREAS AND OVR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
FREMONT COUNTY.

THE UPR TROF SITTING OVR THE WRN STATES THIS MORNING...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WRN CO
OVERNIGHT.  THE CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MSTR INTO THE CONTDVD WL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THUS THE SNOW WL CONTINUE.  THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS OVR ALL THE ERN AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SANGRES...WL CONTINUE TO SNOW AT TIMES THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVR THE HYR ELEVATIONS AND WRN SLOPES. THEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE GFS INCREASING PCPN ALONG THE SANGRES AND OVR THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS OFF ON THIS UNTIL A FEW HOURS
LATER.  SOUTH TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN
PLAINS TODAY AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

BY LATE TONIGHT...SNOWFALL OVR THE SANGRES...WET MTNS AND THE PIKES
PEAK AREA...IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OR END...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND
GFS STILL SHOW SNOW CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE SRN SANGRES
WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...SO WL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THIS
AREA. THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE NIGHT AS W TO SW WINDS SPREAD ACRS THE AREA.  THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WL MAKE THE LOW TEMP FORECAST A CHALLENGE...BUT THEY
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD.  STRONG WINDS WL
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACRS ALL OF THE HYR ELEVATIONS...WHICH WL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW.

THE ERN SAN JUAN MTNS WL CONTINUE TO BE THE HARDEST HIT AREA...WITH
ANOTHER 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 12Z TUE. WIND OVER THE
ERN SAN JUANS ARE STILL AROUND BLIZZARD CRITERIA THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EVEN MORE THIS EVENING. WL KEEP THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...AND WL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO ANY OF
THE OTHER WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UNSETTLED AND MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND THEREAFTER...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET CORE TRANSLATING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO CONTINUING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ARCTIC AIRMASS DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFER ON LOCATION AND
TIMING WITH THE ECMWF THE FURTHEST WEST AND SLOWEST DIGGING THE
ENERGY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...THE GFS THE FURTHEST EAST AND
FASTEST DIGGING IT ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
CANADIAN RUNS IN BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO SOLUTIONS.

TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE
THE KEY TO HOW COLD AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN MTS THROUGH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FURTHER WEST
SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW DUE TO H7 FLOW BECOMING
WEAK EASTERLY. AT ANY RATE...CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PASSING
JET CORE ALLOWS FOR LEADING EDGE OF COOLER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...IF THE SLOWER
AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE SUB ADVISORY
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR THE NEED OF POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND REMAINS IN THE OFFING
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
LATEST MODELS ARE WAVERING ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF WEAK WAVES
WITHIN THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH TIER OF
STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...HAVE STAYED WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREA WIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 427 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

KPUB SHOULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.  KCOS SHOULD MAINLY SEE IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
KALS WL GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT OCNL SHOWERS PASSING BY THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ073.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ059-064-
065.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-
066-067.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28