Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 091707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1007 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Main near/short term meteorological challenges for the forecast
district include temperatures and spotty near critical/critical fire
weather concerns.

Forecast district currently graced by dry conditions/mostly clear
skies, decreased winds and above seasonal early morning

Recent real-time data, computer simulations and forecast model
soundings indicate that relatively tranquil and mild conditions
should be experienced over the forecast district through tonight as
dry north-northwesterly flow aloft interacts with a relaxing surface

In addition, some localized/elevated fire weather conditions will be
possible this afternoon, primarily over portions of Baca and Kiowa
counties, although not widespread enough and of long enough duration
to warrant any fire weather highlights at this time.

Finally, above seasonal maximum temperatures are anticipated over
the forecast district today with maximum temperatures over eastern
sections running some 5F to 10F warmer than values noted yesterday,
while majority of western portions should realize maximum
temperatures running near to slightly below temperatures recorded
yesterday. Minimum temperatures tonight should run near to a
category or so above early to mid December climatological averages
over the majority of the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Not much change in forecast thinking as the ridge is going to remain
on the west coast while troughieness continues over the midwest.
Pattern is forecasted to "flatten out" late in the week, but in the
meantime it will be dry and unseasonably warm through the period
across the forecast district.

On Monday, a weak shortwave will move down in the NW flow aloft and
this will likely increase the sfc winds over the plains. With RH
values at critical values, critical fire weather conditions may
develop over the parts of the plains.

Another weak wave will affect the region Wed or Thu, and this should
drop temps a few degrees.

A more substantial pacific trough may affect the region next
weekend, and this system could bring some precip to he mtns.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 952 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

An upper level ridge remains over the west coast of the United
States, bringing dry conditions and diurnal flow to KCOS and KPUB.
KALS will also be dry but the winds will be light and variable.
VFR conditions expected for all forecast points throughout the
forecast period.





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