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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210521
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

CURRENTLY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.  RADAR
INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE WALDO
CANYON BURN SCAR WHERE CELLS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL.  THOSE NEAR THE BURN SCAR SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT IS
HAPPENING OVER THE BURN SCAR.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PLEASANT WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT.  THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COOL WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.  AREAS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THE MAIN FORECAST
DIFFERENCE WILL BE LACK OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A
MINIMUM.  MODELS HIGHLIGHTING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE RAMPART
RANGE AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBLE STORMS ON THE
PLAINS...AND THEN FIRE WEATHER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE CHANGED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO 24H AGO IN THAT
THE MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK WEST TO THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUE EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. BY FRIDAY..SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AND THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE THE FIRE WX CONCERNS OVER
THE REGION FROM FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUE NIGHT...

A FEW LIGHT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE S MTNS AND RATON
MESA REGION TUE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET.

WED...

THIS DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
ALONG THE S MTN...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. INTERIOR MTNS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. STRONG STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY.

THU...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING COOLER AIR ONTO MOST OF THE PLAINS (70S/80S). THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE PLAINS AND S MTNS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER AS FAVORABLE SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THIS
AREA.

FRI...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE TO
THE EAST AND ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE CO/KS
BORDER. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS AND A
GOOD PART OF THE PLAINS ON THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT IS
TOTAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS THE EC HAS ANOTHER BOUNDARY
MOVING ONTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
WARM AND DRY. IF EC VERIFIES THEN WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ON
THE PLAINS WHILE IF THE GFS VERIFIES THE REGION WILL LIKELY SEE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

OVERALL...WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW OCCURRING OVER THE PLAINS...WE
MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TUESDAY...80S TO L90
WEDNESDAY...70S AN 80S THURSDAY AND 80S AND 90S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IF THE EC VERIFIES TEMPS ON THE PLAINS MAY BE A BIT COOLER
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH 09Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING...BUT ARE NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KCOS OR KPUB
TAF SITES. THUS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 18Z. KCOS AND KALS COULD SEE A VCTS AFTER 20Z...BUT KPUB IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF -SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT