Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 120544
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

CURRENTLY...WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS HAVE HELPED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.  MODELS TURN FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND SPREAD MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS COLORADO BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO ARIZONA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PALMER
DIVIDE AND RATON MESA AREAS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEING CONFINED TO ABOVE 10 KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...MIXING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.  THESE WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

...SIGNIFICANT STORM LIKELY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA...WITH MOST MOUNTAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT PLAINS RECEIVING
THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRINGING SNOWS TO
THE CENTRAL MTNS SAT EVENING AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY. OVER THE S
MTNS AND ADJ PLAINS...RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW...WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. COLD AIR...REACHING DOWN TO -10C AT 700...WILL BE OVER
THE PALMER DVD BY LATER SUNDAY. THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE ADJ PLAINS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR ACCUMS...HEAVY WET SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
LIKELY...WITH 1-2 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE WET MTNS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTNS. (MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING WELL OVER 1" OF
LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT E FACING SLOPES OF S MTNS). THIS MAY BE THE
LARGEST STORM OVER THE YEAR OVER THESE MTN RANGES. THE PALMER
DVD..N EL PASO COUNTY...WILL ALSO SEE SNOW THAT MAY HIT WARNING
CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS. THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY
NOT BECOME SNOWPACKED DUE TO THE WARMTH...BUT DEEP SLUSH IS VERY
LIKELY ON I-25 SUNDAY.

THE C MTNS WILL ALSO SEE ACCUMS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA...AN A
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE C MTNS ALSO.

AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE...EC AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT THE NAM IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM.
CURRENT FCST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE ED AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF THE NAM
SHOULD VERIFY...THEN PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY BE MORE...AND SNOW ACCUMS
DEEPER AS THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL SUNDAY NITE VS SUNDAY
DAY.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...COOL MONDAY WITH PRECIP ENDING EARLY
IN THE DAY OVER FAR SE PLAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS. WED ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES THROUGH. EC SHOWS A FAST MOVING WAVE
WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND WETTER. THU AND FRI DRY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
NEXT WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THICKENING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KALS AND KCOS. THESE SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN...BUT MAINLY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
FOR NOW...THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH
AT KALS AND KCOS TAF SITES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR COZ058-060-061-072>075-079>082-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



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