Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

...Areas of Low Clouds and Fog Plains Tonight then Sunny and Warmer

Low clouds and moisture continue to hang close to the eastern
Colorado border this afternoon.  Models, once again, have some of
that moisture working back westward across portions of the plains
this evening.  Looks like one target area for the low clouds and fog
tonight will be along and north of the Arkansas River, east of the
I25 corridor.  The other will be across the eastern plains adjoining
Kansas.  Once again, though, there could even been some spots of low
clouds and fog as far west as the Pueblo and eastern El Paso County
areas.  On a side note, recent runs of the 12 and 3 km NAM have been
suggesting some spotty showers will track across the southern
mountains and plains overnight.  Other models and old model runs do
not show this.  Not really sure where the precip is coming from.
It`s pretty dry upstream.  There is a huge mass of high level
moisture to move across tonight.  It`s currently visible in
satellite surging this way from southern California, Nevada, Utah
and Arizona.  This moisture will track across southern Colorado
tonight but with little to no low level support.  The surface air
under the high level moisture is very dry.  It will be pretty hard
to generate any precipitation capable of reaching the ground.  So,
will not play up the late developments in the NAM too much at this
time.  Monday morning, the fog and low clouds should retreat into
Kansas by mid to late morning.  This will clear the way for a really
mild November day with afternoon highs about 15 degrees above
average for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Monday night-Wednesday night...Moderate westerly flow continues
across the region with the next embedded wave translating across the
Northern Great Basin Monday night and across the Northern Rockies
through the day Tuesday, before continuing across the Upper Midwest
through the day Wednesday. Warming over and near the higher terran
Monday night will keep overnight night lows on the mild side, with
highs Tuesday warming into the 60s and 70s across the plains, into
the 50s to to lower 60s across the higher terrain and mainly in the
30s at the peaks. Passing wave across the Northern Rockies sends a
dry, backdoor cold front across Eastern Colorado late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with cool upslope flow developing through
early Wednesday morning. This will keep highs some 10 to 15 degrees
cooler across the plains on Wednesday, with only slightly cooler
conditions expected across the higher terrain.

Thursday-Friday...Latest models in better agreement of strength and
location of the next wave and jet core translating across the
Rockies through this timeframe, though they still differ on timing,
with the EC still 6 to 12 hours slower with the passing system,
which brings differences in forecast high temperatures across the
eastern Plains on Friday. At any rate, will see breezy to windy
conditions across the higher terrain through the period, along with
gusty westerly winds expected across the lower elevations Thursday
afternoon, which look to continue through the day Friday as the
systems associated bora cold front moves across the state. The
further south solutions of this system will bring increasing chances
of orographic snow to areas along and west of the ContDvd Thursday
night and Friday, with the potential for moderate accumulations
across the higher terrain of the central mountains. Could see some
light snow showers spreading east across the Pikes Peak and Palmer
Dvd region on Friday as well. Pattern suggests enhanced fire danger
across the area and will have to continue to monitor forecast trends
for possible fire weather issues. Temperatures are expected to warm
back to above seasonal levels again on Thursday with highs on Friday
dependent on timing of the cold front.

Saturday-Sunday...Dry conditions with a warming trend remains in the
offing through next weekend, as upper level ridging builds across
the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1022 PM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

There will be a lot of cloud cover thru tonight and into early Mon
morning, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR at KCOS, KPUB and
KALS thru the next 24 hrs. The cloud cover is expected to
decrease by mid to late morning Mon. Winds are expected to
generally be 10 kt or less thru the forecast period.




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