Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200451
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1051 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next
few hours as nocturnal processes become dominant. Decided to cut
down pops over the Rampart, Wet, and Sangre de Cristo Mtns as
shower activity continues to wane. Latest model guidance continues
to suggest shower activity moving into the Central Mtns from the
west during the early morning hours...thus decided to rise pops
slightly over the Central and northern San Juan Mtns. Otherwise,
the current forecast remains on track. Lukinbeal/Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Currently...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across the region at 2 pm. the best coverage of storms were over the
Wet and Sangre mtns. a few showers/-tsra were noted over the I-25
corridor and san luis valley.

upper low was located over the sc KS area and flow aloft was from
the N-NW. This flow was allowing for a few showers to move onto the
plains.

Temps across the region were seasonable...with readings in the 50s
to L70s across the Plains...and 50s and 60s in the valleys.

Rest of today into tonight...

Scattered showers will continue over the higher trrn with more isold
activity expected over the valleys and the plains adjacent to the
mtns into the early evening hours. Once the sun sets...showers will
come to an end. The only exception will be the Central mtns were
some showers may approach this region towards sunrise as a weak
disturbance moves across the central part of the State.

Temps tonight will be seasonable with lows in the 40s across the
plains and 30s in the valleys. /Hodanish

Tomorrow...

Drier sw flow aloft moves over the fcst region. Although we will see
some isold tsra over the mtns and possibly the plains...I expect we
will see less coverage than what we have seen today. Temperatures
will continue to warm...and expect another 10 degree warming...with
highs in the mid 80s across a good part of the Plains. Overall best
chance of precip tomorrow will likely be the c mtn area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Friday night through Sunday...Long range models agree on placing an
upper low pressure system over the West Coast Fri night and Sat,
producing brisk SW flow aloft across the 4 Corners as well as very
warm temps for the forecast area. Save for isolated convection over
the mts, and mainly the central mts, each aftn and eve, conditions
will remain dry for much of the CWA. Look for max temps in the upper
60s to mid 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for
the plains. The upper low migrates to the north and slides across
the Northern Rockies on Sun, pushing a cold front down into eastern
CO Sun night.

Monday through Thursday...As the one upper feature passes to the
northeast, another upper trough of low pressure develops over
Northern CA and the Pacific NW. This will once again produce
southwest flow aloft across the 4 Corners. Multiple disturbances in
the upper flow will cross the state, serving as the trigger for
scattered convection over the mts, and isolated activity for the
plains, for Tue and Wed. Therefore, look for isolated mt convection
on Mon with aftn temps about 10 degrees cooler than on Sun.
Convective activity increases for all areas Tue and Wed, with max
temps in the 70s to around 80 F for the plains, and in the 60s for
the high valleys. The upper low to the west finally starts to make a
move towards CO on Thu, which will likely mean cooler temps and a
higher probability for some showers and storms. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

TAF sites should remain VFR for the next 24-30 hours. There is a
low probability of a few afternoon and evening storms over the
Palmer Divide...but they should not impact the VC KCOS. Winds
will be a bit stronger tomorrow...with surface winds generally
from the SE over the plains and S-SW over the San Luis Valley.
Rose

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LUKINBEAL/MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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