Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 162211
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

An upper level low over NM is expected to move northeastward tonight
acrs the far sern corner of CO and then into northwest KS by 12Z
Wed.  Isolated to scattered showers and tstms will be possible acrs
much of the forecast area this evening.  By late night, the mtns and
high valleys should have little chance for pcpn, while wrap-around
pcpn on the back side of the upper low, is expected to be found over
the eastern plains.

Wed morning some wrap-around pcpn will probably still be found over
the far southeast plains. Wed afternoon that upper low will continue
moving east and into wrn IA by evening.  At the same time, a new
upper level low is expected to move into southern ID.  Ahead of the
ID upper low, mstr and pcpn chance are expected to increase again
along the Continental Divide.  There is also a chance that some
isolated to scattered showers and tstms will spread into the eastern
mtns in the late afternoon, but the southeast plains are expected to
be dry.  Breezy west to southwest sfc winds are expected acrs most
of the area Wed.   High temps acrs the southeast plains should
mostly be in the 70s, while the San Luis and Upper Arkansas River
Valleys should see highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

...Cool and unsettled weather expected for the middle to end of
the week...

Wednesday night-Friday night...Latest models indicating some
differences on location of a cutoff low as it slowly translates
across the central Rockies through this period. The ECMWF remains
the furthest north with the system and maintains two distinct
circulations as secondary energy digs down the back side of the
system Thursday night and Friday. The operational GFS and the 12Z
ensemble mean move the system further south and maintain one closed
low as it lifts out across southern Colorado Friday. The further
south GFS supports better chances of rain and snow across southern
Colorado with snow levels down 6000 feet Thursday night and early
Friday, with the further north EC solution keeping best upper
support precipitation from the central mountains through the Pikes
Peak region and north across the Northern Front Range. At any rate,
should see widespread precipitation across the Contdvd late
Wednesday afternoon spreading east across the area Wednesday night
and Thursday. Depending on how far the low digs, could see
widespread rain and snow Thursday night and Friday before the system
lifts out across the High Plains Friday night.

For now, have issued a winter storm watch for the high elevations of
the ContDvd and for Pikes Peak with accumulations of 10 to 18 inches
possible from Wednesday night through the day Friday. With the track
of this system remaining in question, exact snow totals for these
locations and for the rest of the area remain in doubt at this time.

Another major impact of this system will be the unseasonably cold
air associated with it, leading to possible vegetation and crop
damage with possible subfreezing overnight lows and or frost across
much of south central and southeast Colorado Thursday night and
Friday night.


Saturday-Tuesday...A cool northwesterly flow pattern develops across
the region into early next week, keeping chances of showers in place
across the region, especially over and near the higher terrain, with
temperatures expected to be at or below seasonal levels through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 411 PM MDT Tue May 16 2017

Showers or tstms will be possible in the vicinity of the terminal
forecast sites this evening. By midnight, chances for pcpn should
decrease, but there may still be some showers in the vicinity of
KCOS and KPUB through about 09Z and then dry conditions are expected
through Wed.  Gusty westerly winds are expected to develop Wed
morning at KCOS, KPUB and KALS on Wed, with gusts around 25 kts,
especially in the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday
afternoon for COZ058-060-066-068-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28



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