Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240947
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Initial upper trough evident in satellite imagery over ern CO early
this morning, with next upper wave back to the sw near the 4
corners. Still some isolated light -shra across the region as of
0930z, and expect at least some spotty light precip through the
morning hours as weak deformation zone behind departing wave drifts
eastward across the area. By afternoon, low level upslope
strengthens slightly and renewed upward motion spreads eastward
across srn CO as 4 corners wave begins to lift newd. Mountains
should see sct convection develop fairly quickly, with storms
pushing across interior valleys mid/late afternoon. Models have
tended to favor srn sangres/raton mesa for heaviest precip the past
few runs, as synoptic ascent and instability look best these areas.
Over the I25 corridor and eastern plains, low levels look fairly
cool/stable through most of the day, though some -shra/weak -tsra
may drift off the mountains by late afternoon. Overall, threat for
widespread heavy rain looks low with lack of deep instability,
though like yesterday, convection could be strong enough produce
flooding on most mountain burn scars. Max temps will run some 10-15f
cooler than yesterday over much of the eastern plains, while
mountains and interior valleys see just slightly cooler readings.

Tonight, warm advection lift increases along/north of frontal
boundary in nrn NM, as low level jet cranks up 00z-03z. Models have
been fairly persistent in showing a rather loosely organized MCS
developing along the CO/NM border after 00z, then tracking E-NE
across the plains south of the Arkansas River through the overnight
hours. Will ramp up pops for southern plains zones considerably to
account for this scenario, with heaviest precip across Las Animas
and Baca counties. Elsewhere, sct convection in the evening will end
from N-S by midnight, with only some lingering -shra over the
mountains persisting past 06z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

..Potential for heavy rain through Friday...

Active weather pattern looks to continue at least through Friday, as
a series of short waves move through the Central and Northern
Rockies this week. Area burn scars, particularly the Hayden, will be
the main concern.

Thursday...the latest NAM run has backed off a bit on instability
over the Plains. Early morning convection over portions of the
Plains, along with extensive cloud cover, will likely preclude strong
storm development east of the mountains at least for much of the day.
By late afternoon the next short wave will be moving into wrn CO as
a fairly robust late summer trough slowly swings through the Rockies.
Expect an uptick in storm beginning over the mts late in the day,
then spreading to the I-25 corridor by early evening. It will be
another mild day for the Plains with highs generally in the mid to
upper 70s. CAPE of around 1000-1200 j/kg along with bulk shear of
around 30 kts could lead to a few organized storms with the
potential for marginally svr hail and/or wind gusts. But the main
concern will continue to be locally heavy rainfall especially for
the burn scars. Expect activity to run through Thu night as the best
forcing aloft will be in the overnight hours. Summit of Pikes Peak
could see another inch or two of snow accumulation by Fri morning.

The main trough axis will move through the area on Friday, leading
to another round of sct to nmrs storms being generated over the
mountains, then spreading to the Plains by late afternoon-evening.
Marginal instability and shear will once again lead to at least the
possibility of a couple strong to svr storms, particularly over the
Pikes Peak Region where parameters will be maximized.

By Saturday the main trough will be to our east, and weak high
pressure will help suppress convection for most of the area. Srn
portions of the CWA and the mts could still see some ISOLD activity.
Temps will begin to rebound with highs reaching the upper 80s over
the Plains, while the mt areas remain generally in the 60s.
A weak upper disturbance will cross through on Sunday and could lead
to a temporary increase in storm coverage, especially over the mtn
areas. This system should exit the area on Monday.

In the Tue through Thursday period next week, expect significant
drying out and warmer conditions as high pressure builds strongly
over the Four Corners Region. Temperatures will likely be back into
90s over the Plains during this stretch of time. Dry SW flow should
keep us in this dry and warmer trend through the latter part of next
week...so summer is not done yet in Colorado! Rose

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Have seen some patchy ground fog around KALS already this morning,
and will likely need to a include a brief mention in the 12z taf for
a few hours around sunrise. KCOS and KPUB should stay VFR through
the morning, with some periods of VFR cigs and perhaps some very
light -shra through about 18z. Convection will develop over the
mountains after 18z, with a VCTS mention at all taf sites after 20z-
22z. Again some brief MVFR cigs and erratic/gusty outflow winds
likely all terminals until 03-05z, with VFR conditions overnight as
convection shifts eastward along the CO/NM border. Over the mts,
peaks and and high passes already obscured in spots early this
morning, and expect this trend to continue today and tonight as
-shra/-tsra will become fairly widespread again this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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