Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161752
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Upper level circulation which has wandered around srn CO the past
few days was centered near La Junta early this morning, with
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms lingering over the
eastern plains through much of the night. Expect this convection to
begin to fade toward sunrise, though will still carry some low pops
for the far east until mid-morning. While models take plains
circulation north and east of the area by late afternoon, their
track record of being too quick to move the system eastward the past
few days suggests a slower movement, which would keep higher precip
chances and threat of heavy rainfall in place over the far southeast
plains for another day. Over the mountains, moisture continues to
decrease slowly, but it will still be plentiful enough for sct tsra,
though coverage will decrease versus the past few days. I-25
corridor may stay relatively free of convection until late afternoon
or early this evening, then HRRR and NAM suggest at least isolated
tsra over the Pikes Peaks region dropping south along/west of I-25
after 00z. Max temps today will creep upward slightly from
yesterday`s readings, though most locations will remain a little
below average. Storms then fade/shift east toward KS by midnight,
with slow clearing areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Monday-Wednesday...Upper high progged to build across the
state with latest models continuing to indicate slightly drier air
working into the area, especially across eastern Colorado. This will
allow for a lull in convection across the eastern plains, though
can`t totally rule out a few afternoon storms, as convective temps
are reached. Further west, there looks to be enough moisture to work
with strong summer solar heating for scattered afternoon and evening
storms across the mountains and high mountain valleys.  Weak
steering flow aloft will lead to slow movement of storms and bring
the potential for locally heavy rainfall, and the possibility of
flash flooding, mainly over and near area burn scars. Warm air aloft
under the high will lead to temperatures warming back to at and
above seasonal levels.

Thursday-Saturday...A slow uptick in convection expected across the
area as monsoonal moisture is expected to increase within developing
southerly flow aloft, as high pressure aloft builds back across the
southern high plains and into the Southern Rockies. Again, stayed
stayed close to blended model pops, with isolated to scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening, showers and storms through the period,
with the best coverage over the higher terrain. Temperatures to
remain near seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Monsoon moisture will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms
across the flight area through this evening. The best chance of
storms will be over and near the mountains and also near the
Kansas border. Drier air will reduce the number of storms over
most of the plains.  Primary risks will include lightning and
heavy rain. Additionally, local flash flooding, gusty winds to
around 50 mph and small hail will be possible. Areas of MVFR, IFR
and LIFR GIGS and VSBYS can be expected through precipitation.
These conditions will be scattered west of the I-25 corridor but
more isolated east of the corridor. Most activity should diminish
by around midnight although isolated activity may linger past
midnight.

The airmass will dry out some over the flight area on Monday.
While most of the plains should be void of convection, afternoon
and evening thunderstorms will continue over and near the
mountains.

All 3 of the terminal sites (KCOS, KPUB and KALS) will see a
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon or evening. For KALS, the
onset looks to be around 21z. For KCOS and KPUB, the potential
onset looks later, roughly around 00Z for KCOS and around 02z for
KPUB. These times are based on recent hi res model runs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



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