Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201732
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO SHORT TERM GRIDS AND BLENDED WITH
REST OF FORECAST. ALSO...FINE TUNED POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

...APRIL SHOWERS...

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER RATON VICINITY THIS HOUR...EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MEANDER EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY HOT ON THE QPF BULLSEYES LAST COUPLE DAYS.
SO FAR...THESE HEAVY BULLSEYES HAVE NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED.
CONVECTIVE SWITCHES IN THE MODELS HAVE FLIPPED...BUT SURFACE AIR SO
FAR HAS NOT BEEN SUPPORTIVE...WITH SURFACE DEWS ONLY IN THE 30S OR
LESS.

THIS MORNING...SURFACE DEWS HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP...EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ANYWAY...WITH VALUES NOW GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.  THIS IS BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...AND WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TODAY.

MODELS...NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND HI RES MODELS...ALL INDICATE BANDS OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND ROTATE INTO AREA...WRAPPING COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE AROUND UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.  WE
HAVE SEEN A LITTLE OF THIS THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASING
TREND NOTED RECENTLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.  THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE ONCE IT IS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  WITH
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORKING INTO THE AREA...WOULD SUSPECT MORE RAIN
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND TODAY OVER A BROADER AREA.  PRIMARY
TARGET LOOKS TO BE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH MUCH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS.

ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD HIT A BURN SCAR AND CAUSE SOME MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY.  THE EAST PEAK FIRE
SCAR...SOUTHEAST OF LA VETA...AS SEEN SOME CELLS TRAIN OVER IT
ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOMETIMES EVEN MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS.  SURFACE OBS...THOUGH...INDICATE DEWS ONLY AROUND
40...WITH TEMPS LIKELY VERY SIMILAR IF IT IS RAINING...SO DON`T
THINK RAINFALL IS EXTREME ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS THIS MORNING.
BUT...SOILS ARE MOISTENING ACROSS THE EAST PEAK SCAR...WHICH WILL
JUST MAKE IT EASIER FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS LATER TODAY SHOULD IT GET
HIT AGAIN.

SUSPECT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ABOVE
10000 FEET...AS AIRMASS REMAINS PRETTY MILD.  A FEW INCHES OF WET
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 1OK UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SPANISH PEAK AREAS...CLOSET
TO THE PASSING UPPER LOW CENTER.  THIS IS ONE OF THE AREAS THAT
NEEDS SNOWFALL THE MOST IN SOUTHERN COLORADO...SO GOOD TO HAVE THE
MOISTURE DOWN THERE.

EVERYTHING SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. LW

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON BOTH MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY
TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH AFTERNOONS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR MON...THEN AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON TUE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BUMP UP BY 10
DEGREES INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EC AND GFS MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK FOR THE INCOMING LOW PRES SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR PATH VARIANCE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO AN
INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE CWA...MAINLY THE MTS...FOR WED WITH THE
INITIAL WAVE. LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE CENT MTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING AS THE SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY...PCPN AMOUNTS AND
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING SIGNIFICANT...BUT THE REAL CONCERN IS ON WED
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH.
MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS COULD
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WED AFTN...AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THU AFTN
ALL PCPN SHOULD BE DONE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING USHERS IN THE NEXT WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 F
EXPECTED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. WHILE CIGS/VIS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY...SHOULD ONE OF THE MORE
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THEN A BRIEF DROP
INTO MVFR TO EVEN IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
SMALL AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH OR
VCTS...THOUGH KPUB MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS FROM ANY STORMS THAT PASS NEARBY. KCOS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE A STEADIER NORTH WIND 12-24 KTS WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY STAYING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL. KALS WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF A -SHRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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