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000
FXUS65 KPUB 282040
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
240 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper level ridge over the area will be shifting a little
eastward for tonight and Thursday, as an upper low over southern CA
weakens and moves over the Great Basin, and an upper trof approaches
the Pacific NW.  The NAM and the GFS show the possibility of some
isold pcpn over portions of the Continental Divide this evening,
while the HRRR and NMM keep the area dry.  Most low temps tonight at
the lower elevations will be in the 40s, with a few locations in the
30s.

On Thursday, there should be more moisture over the mountain and
high valleys areas, and therefore there will be a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours, especially over
the Continental Divide. The southeast plains and I-25 corridor are
expected to remain dry.  With increasing sfc pressure gradient over
the sern plains, breezy southerly winds are expected in the
afternoon over that area.  High temps on Thu wl again be a little
above average.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement through the weekend with
differences heading into next week.  Ensembles have higher spreads
beginning Monday in regards to the pattern evolution, especially
with the strength and location of an upper trough.

Thursday night through Sunday...the upper level pattern will favor a
slow moving upper low over the Ohio Valley while high pressure is
centered over the central plains.  An upper level storm system is
forecast to strengthen off the Pacific Northwest.  This will force
flow southwesterly across Colorado with a modest moisture tap off
the Pacific and several weak disturbances moving north across
Colorado.

Expect to see showers and thunderstorms over the mountains Thursday
night and through the weekend.  Snow levels will remain high, but a
couple inches of snowfall are possible along the continental divide
through Sunday.  One weak disturbance is forecast to lift north
across Colorado on Friday, with the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms to move off the mountains and across the plains.
Models in line with a disturbance on Saturday as well, but lifts it
too far north to have much impact across southeastern Colorado.  The
exception may be the Palmer Divide Saturday evening.  More isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast on Sunday for the
mountains.  Temperatures will remain warm across the lower
elevations with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows
in the 50s.

Monday into Wednesday...the forecast depends on the evolution and
track of the Pacific Northwest storm system.  The latest GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement with a much further and slower track
than yesterdays runs.  The main forecast change for Monday would be
an elevated fire weather risk, as southwesterly flow increases and
mixing allows for enhanced drying, especially in the lee of the
eastern mountains.  Showers and thunderstorms will likely move into
the continental divide Monday afternoon.  A cold front is expected
by Tuesday with much cooler air working into the area.  This will
drive snow levels down with a few inches possible above 8 kft.  As
for the rest of the area, precipitation chances will all depend on
the storm track, available moisture and wind flows.  Temperatures
will be cooler by 10 to 20 degrees Tuesday into Wednesday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites tonight
and Thursday. Some breezy south the southeast wind wl be possible in
the afternoon hours at KCOS and KPUB on Thu, with breezy south to
southwest winds late in the afternoon at KALS.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28