Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 311720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

Issued at 911 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Updated to make some minor adjustments in sky cover and POPs today
based on obs and latest hi-res guidance. Clear skies should
rapidly give way to developing clouds this morning. Latest model
guidance suggests storms will be slow to move off the mts this
afternoon, and best bet for storms from I-25 east will be this
evening. Rose


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Currently...generally quiet conditions exist across southern
Colorado early this morning.  Weak radar echoes are showing up over
the far southeastern plains, but surface obs do not show any
rainfall reaching the ground.  Some patchy fog will likely be
possible across the far eastern plains this morning.  Temperatures
are cool with mid to upper 50s for most locations across the plains.

Today...a large upper level ridge will continue to stretch from the
desert southwest, north into the northern plains, while weak energy
under the ridge continues to drift across Colorado and across the
region.  Models all seem to be in good agreement for the evolution
of the weather for today.  An upper disturbance over northwest
Kansas is forecast to drift south over the eastern Colorado plains
by this evening.  At the surface, low level southeasterly flow will
continue to keep moisture pooled across the plains.  Expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the mountains by late morning and
increase in coverage, especially for the eastern mountains this
afternoon.  Expect thunderstorm activity to spread east into the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa areas this afternoon.  The main
thunderstorm threats will continue to be locally heavy rainfall,
lightning and small hail.  Slow storm motions due to weak steering
flows could lead to flash flooding, with burn scars and urban areas
of primary concern.  Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the
mid 70s to lower 80s across the lower elevations.

Tonight...the upper level disturbance will drift south across our
far eastern plains and weaken by Thursday morning.  Models in good
agreement with an area of thunderstorms dropping south during the
evening hours out of northeast Colorado and into our eastern plains
zones, before dissipating later tonight.  Locally heavy rainfall
will continue to be a threat with slow moving thunderstorms, along
with small hail and lightning.  Lack of shear and weak instability
should keep storms from becoming too strong.  This activity on the
plains looks to die off around midnight.  Over the mountains,
showers and thunderstorms will likely dissipate with sunset.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid to upper 50s across
the region.  Areas of fog will once again be possible across
the far eastern plains heading into Thursday morning.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Really not much flow to move moisture entirely out of the region through
at least Friday. Upper ridge will remain over forecast area during
this period with fairly light flow through Thursday. So pattern of
daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms should continue. Friday
could be interesting as upper flow starts to increase ahead of
incoming Pacific trough slated to eventually move through the
northern Rockies. The 12 km NAM for Friday has some pretty good
convection over the region, including the plains. Because of the
increased shear, could be a few severe storms around this day.
Saturday could be marginal for severe as well, although the models
currently have most of the moisture flushed out of the region by
this time with a warmer and drier southwest flow beginning to

In any event, Sunday through Tuesday looks pretty much dry and hot
with temperatures climbing to above average levels.  Pattern looks
pretty dry for this period with the monsoon tap cutoff to the south
and drier Pacific air overtaking Colorado.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Main AVN concerns are possibility of TS this afternoon and
eve...and low cigs developing overnight.

At KALS...TS chances looking pretty low...around 10
have removed VCTS from latest TAF cycle. KALS should stay VFR
next 24 hours, with light winds.

At KPUB and KCOS, main change this TAF cycle was to decrease cigs
and vis tonight, especially at KCOS. It is looking more likely
that easterly winds will bring low clouds into the area later this
evening and lasting through at least thru first part of Thu
morning. Will keep cigs/vis MVFR for now, but could potentially
see IFR conditions develop by late tonight into Thu morning, and
FG is not out of the question at KCOS. AT KPUB, more likely to see
MVFR cigs. Rose


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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