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000
FXUS65 KPUB 292149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

TONIGHT AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT THEN TOMORROW AN
UPR LOW WL MOVE INTO SRN CA AND THE RIDGE WL GET PUSHED EWRD.
TONIGHT THERE WL BE SOME MSTR OVR THE MTN AND HIGH VALLEY AREAS
WHICH WL PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE SERN PLAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE LAST 2 RUNS OF
THE NAM HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AREA OF PCPN DEVELOPING OVR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS
PUSH MSTR UP AGAINST THE HYR TRRN. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA...WHILE THE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH. AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH JUST
SCT POPS FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

ON FRIDAY AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INTO SRN CA...SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WL PUSH MOISTURE UP INTO CO. THE FIRST HALF OF FRI THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL E OVR THE SW MTNS THE SANGRES AND THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.  THEN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE MSTR PUSHES FARTHER
NORTHWARD...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
MTNS...INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SERN PLAINS.  THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT HAVE ALL THAT MUCH FOR QPF
ON FRIDAY MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SAN JUAN MTNS MAY SEE A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM A LITTLE FOR
FRI...SO HIGH TEMPS WL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD. SO IF PCPN FALLS OVR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING A LOT OF THE HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

...SNOW STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS THE IMPACT OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SRN CA AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...THEN SEW ON
SATURDAY THROUGH SRN AZ. MAIN CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IN THE MODELS IS
A SLIGHTLY BETTER INTERACTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES CONCURRENTLY WITH THE SRN BRANCH CUT-OFF
LOW. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HINT AT THIS INTERACTION HELPING
TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY CIRCULATION NR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
SATURDAY...AND THIS COULD HELP BRING A LITTLE MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. PV FIELDS ARE
WEAK...AND H7-H6 WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...IN THE 15-30 KT RANGE.
WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MTS.
THE ONE NOTABLE THING IS THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING PULLED NWD BY THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW.
THAT AND THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH SHOULD AT LEAST
BRING MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE MTS...ESPECIALLY THE SRN MTS.
AMOUNTS IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
ISSUED YESTERDAY STILL LOOK BORDERLINE FOR WARNING CRITERIA...EVEN
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SO GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND AND GENERALLY
LOW SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS...WILL CONVERT TO AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS...AND ADD THE LA GARITAS...HIGHER NRN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AND
THE CENTRAL MTS AS WELL. SINCE OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE A BIG
FACTOR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA GET
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS. WILL JUST INCLUDE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL
INITIALLY BE RATHER HIGH. BUT AT SOME POINT IF THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS IN EXPANDING THE PRECIP A BIT TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS TREND...MAY ALSO NEED TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS
AS WELL...AND MAYBE EVEN THE WET MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR ONLY ABOUT 2-4 INCHES FOR THOSE ZONES...BUT A SLIGHT
SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE COULD EASILY BUMP UP THOSE
TOTALS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING FOR THE ERN PLAINS.
THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF RAIN-SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT AT BEST.
AGAIN...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE DOES LOOK SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...SO STILL THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
RAIN.

THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE QUICKLY OUT OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. BRISK NW FLOW LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PERSISTENT SHSN GOING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS IN LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...BUT THE PLAINS
LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY PATTERN WITH NR AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

KCOS AND KPUB ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z FRI. KALS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT
LATER TONIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY AND
CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. ON FRI AT KALS THERE WL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER IN THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH
AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY
FOR COZ058-060-061-066>068-073>075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28