Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220258
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
758 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

Updated to end current winter weather highlights across the
mountains. Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the higher
elevations of the southwest and central mts starting Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

An upper level low over NM this afternoon will moves east-southeast
into north central TX by midnight, and will continue moving away
from the area on Sun, allowing an upper ridge to build over CO.

It is still snowing in areas along the Continental Dvd, with some
snow also over the eastern mtns.  It shouldn`t be until later this
evening, as the upper low is pulling away from the area, that snow
will decrease ovr the mtn areas.  Therefore, will leave the winter
wx warnings/advisories as they are, in effect until 03z.  The lower
elevation may also see some light pcpn, mainly this evening.  The
high res forecast models show the potential for evening pcpn mainly
in the San Luis Valley, along the I-25 corridor and over the far
sern corner of the state, but there wl probably be the possibility
of isold pcpn acrs much of the sern plains. After midnight, pcpn
chances are expected to end in most locations, but some light snow
may continue over portions of the central CO mtns until around 12Z.

On Sun the weather should be dry, except that in the late afternoon
some light snow may move back into areas along the Continental Dvd,
as moisture ahead of the next weather system begins moving into the
state. Temps acrs the eastern plains are expected to warmer than
today, with highs in the mid and upper 40s, while the high valleys
should see readings in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

...Winter Storm Watch Sunday night through Monday night...

Moist southwest flow aloft brings another round of snow to the
Continental Divide Sunday night through Monday night. An upper level
low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest Monday morning
with a broad trough extending south across California. A secondary
upper low forms in Idaho Monday and then shifts east into Wyoming
Monday night. Strong Pacific jet in place over southern CO
throughout the period bringing a prolonged period of snow to the
Continental Divide.

Elsewhere, mild temperatures and gusty winds are expected Monday
across southeast CO. Snow chances will be confined to the mountains
and areas to the west with dry conditions continuing on the plains.
Highs will be in the 50s to around 60 on the southeast plains with
20s and 30s in the mountains and high valleys.

On Tuesday, the upper low moves into central Nebraska with a cold
front moving through the southeast plains by afternoon. Expect gusty
northerly winds behind the front along with a chance of snow. It
will be 10 to 15 degrees colder Tuesday with highs only in the 30s
and 40s on the plains. Current models bring the cold front through
the southeast plains earlier on Tuesday which means temperature
forecast for Tuesday could be a bit optimistic. Wednesday will still
be cold with broad upper level trough over the Rocky Mountain
region. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with a few lingering snow
showers possible along and west of the I-25 corridor in southeast
CO.

Thursday through Saturday, models show north to northwesterly flow
aloft with a few weak waves moving through the flow. Not a lot of
moisture to work with during this period, so precipitation chances
remain low. Temperatures will remain on the cold side however, with
highs in the 30s at the lower elevations Thursday and Friday.
Current forecast shows some moderation for Saturday with highs in
the 40s. Stark

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

KCOS and KPUB could see some showers in the evening and cigs could
lower into the MVFR category for a brief period as a result.
Otherwise, KPUB and KCOS should have VFR conditions.  KALS has VFR
conditions this afternoon, but there is the possibility of some snow
showers in the vcnty this evening which could lead to MVFR
conditions for a time.  However, forecast models show that by late
evening showers chances wl likely end and then VFR conditions are
expected thru the night and on Sun.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening
for COZ058-060-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...28



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