Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 302121
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

...MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES...

ITS BEEN A SLOW AND SPARSE START TO CONVECTION TODAY AND WITH LITTLE
SHEAR...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING AND
UNORGANIZED...PULSING UP THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATING.  SEVERAL FOCUS
AREAS EXIST TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BESIDES THE USUAL
HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALSO PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS.  SURFACE TROF AXIS ACROSS SE CO ALONG WITH THE
REMNANT MCV RIDING THROUGH EXTREME NE NM INTO FAR SE CO IS ALLOWING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON RIDGE AND ACROSS CIMARRON
COUNTY, OK.  IT IS THIS LATTER FEATURE THAT MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL IMPACT AND
WHETHER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TONIGHT.  NAM12 SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER RUN...INDICATING
HEAVY QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BUT IT HASN`T VERIFIED WELL TODAY AS THE MODEL IS
WAY OVERDONE IN QPF AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
REGION.  GFS...NMM...ARW...RAP13 ARE ALL MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF AMOUNTS AND GFS SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH. THINK TONIGHT MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE
NIGHTS OF SEEING SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BACA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES AS LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...OVER-RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH.  SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED POPS DOWN THAT WAY...BUT
HAVE TRENDED QPF AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MODEL BLENDS.  MONSOON PLUME
MAY ALSO KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OUT WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS.  MAIN THREAT FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS AND
AREAS WITH SUSCEPTIBLE SOIL CONDITIONS.  CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1500
J/KG COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONG STORM AS THEY PULSE UP...BUT
LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WHICH
SHOULD KEEP STORMS UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR FRIDAY...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE MAKING A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHWARD PUSH INTO THE AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH BEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING
JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS
GENERALLY DRY WITH DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LESS EXPECTED CONVECTION...SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF PAC NW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE LATEST ECMWF STILL
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SAID SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS INDICATING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT ANY RATE...COULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SENDS
A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC KEEPING DRIER AIR WITHIN MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHERE AS THE GFS REBUILDS A DIRTY
RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SAID
DIFFERENCES...STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 321 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCOS AND KALS THROUGH 02Z.  HIGHEST THREAT WINDOW
WILL BE NOW THROUGH 23Z.  LOCAL ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
KTS...AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...THOUGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THESE MORE ISOLATED CELLS WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES IN SMALL.  THUS VFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PREVAIL.  DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SHOVE WESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS MORNING...PRODUCING A SCT TO BKN MVFR TO IFR LAYER.
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER WITH THIS SIGNIFICANTLY.  THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A LOT OF LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
STRATUS FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD...AND THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY
TO BE A VFR LAYER...SO TAFS LEAN THIS WAY FOR NOW.  ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH KCOS
AND KALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED AGAIN.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT


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