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013
FXUS65 KPUB 270950
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Currently...

Skies were primarily clear across the region at 3 am this morning.
Some remnant high clouds associated with earlier thunder were over
extreme se CO while a band of low clouds were extending NW-SE over
sections of NE CO. A few very light showers were likely occurring
over southcentral CO and were moving towards the western sections of
the CWA.

moisture has decreased over the region compared to this time last
night, especially over the mtns and I-25 corridor. Higher dwpts
(50s) were still noted over the far SE CO plains.

Today...

Flow transitions to westerly at midlevels. This pattern shift will
allow for much warmer temps to occur over the entire region this
afternoon, and expect high temps to reach well into the 90s across
most of the plains. With the zonal flow at midlvls, a lee trough
will develop and expect breezy southwesterly dry winds to occur over
the mtns roughly the western 1/2 of the plains. This will allow fire
weather concerns to increase, and a RED FLAG warning is in effect
for parts of the region (SLV and Fremont county area). Near critical
fire weather conditions will occur over parts of El Paso county as
wind gusts will be flirting around 25 mph, especially over the
eastern part of El Paso county.

Farther east over the plains, moisture will be somewhat better and
with the sfc trough, one or two strong storms may initiate. The
primary threat will be gusty winds. Over the remainder of the
region, very isolated high based storms may occur, but they will be
very few and far between. The primary threat from these cells will
be gusty downburst winds and infrequent CG lightning flashes. SPC
does have the far SE CO plains in marginal risk for later today.

Another concern we may see today is an increase in haze and smoke
due to the flow becoming more zonal across the SW CONUS. This zonal
flow will allow the smoke from the fires in UT, AZ and CA to move
over the region.

Tonight...

Any storms over the far eastern plains this evening will quickly
either dissipate or move into W KS by mid evening. Skies will clear
and min temps will reach into the 50s and 60s across the plains.

During the early morning hours, a pre-frontal boundary will move
down the plains and winds will take on a northwesterly component by
sunrise across most of the plains. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Wednesday-Friday...Another embedded short wave within the moderate
westerly flow aloft across the region is progged to translate across
the Northern Rockies Wednesday and Wednesday night. Flow aloft then
becomes more northwest Thursday and Friday as more embedded waves
translate across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern High
Plains. Latest models remain in good agreement with main frontal
boundary associated with Wednesday`s system staying generally north
and east of the area, and being the focus for convection Wedensday
afternoon and evening. With that said, tapered back pops for
Wednesday, though did keep slight pops across the Palmer Dvd with
proximity to boundary. Another issue for Wednesday will be breezy
afternoon conditions and the potential for critical fire weather
conditions, especially for the San Luis Valley, where fuels have now
been deemed critical. At this time, look like the winds will be
marginal and will not go with a fire weather watch for Wednesday.

Models continue to bring better moisture back across the eastern
plains later Thursday and Friday as the embedded waves within the
northwest flow help to push fronts and low level moisture back
across the plains to the eastern mountains.  With that said, should
see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms across the
eastern mts and plains both Thursday and Friday. As for temperatures,
should see highs cooling back to at or slightly below seasonal
levels by Friday.

Saturday-Monday...Upper level ridging across the Desert SW is
progged to slowly build into the Great Basin and Rockies bringing
bringing generally weak northwesterly flow aloft across the area
into early next week. This will keep daily chances of storms across
the area, early in period, with slow warming and drying conditions
expected into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 350 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Very isolated high based -TSRA are
possible, but probability of occurrence at TAF sites is very low and
precludes mentioning thunder in TAF product. If a storm should
affect the TAF site, very gusty downburst winds would be possible.

Surface winds at all taf sites should be southwesterly this
afternoon, with gusty sw winds likely at KALS. Light winds are
expected tonight. Winds will become NW at KCOS and KPUB as a weak
boundary moves down the plains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ222-224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH