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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231958
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
158 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO INTRODUCE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT
FRIDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
HELD ONTO CLOUDS AND FOG LONGER.  ADJUST TEMPS DOWN ACROSS
THE PLAINS. MAY BE VERY SLOW TO CLEAR COMPLETELY IN A LOT
OF AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

LOW LEVEL E-SE UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND A RAPID EXPANSION OF MVFR
STRATUS WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 10Z.
ALSO APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS HAS WORKED WESTWARD
INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY...AS SALIDA AND BUENA VISTA HAVE
BECOME OVERCAST. EXPECT STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES
AND PLAINS BY MID-MORNING.  MODELS THEN SUGGEST STRATUS WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WITH SOME SOME SUN...AIR MASS BECOMES WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES FALL INTO THE MINUS 2
TO MINUS 4 RANGE WHILE CAPES CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG...WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY...TOUGH TO RULE OUT A TSRA OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...AND WILL CONVERT -SHRA TO -TRSA FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAR SOUTHEAST MAY EVEN SEE A CHANCE
OF A STRONG STORM AS 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA IS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS...AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK WESTWARD BY MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ONCE
AGAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
GRADUALLY DEEPENS. WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL MISS OUT ON
MOST MOISTURE AND PRECIP...AS AIR MASS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REMAINS VERY DRY. MAX TEMPS TODAY LIKELY WARMEST OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...WHILE PLAINS STAY RATHER COOL WITH CLOUDS AND INCREASED
MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS FRIDAY...
...WARM WEEKEND AHEAD...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX
FRIDAY...GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM KLIC TO KLHX TO KTAD. DEEP SWRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVR THE W COAST AND PACNW WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVR ERN CO BY FRI AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFDS...POSITION OF DRYLINE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVR THE ERN PLAINS. SVR THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST LATE FRI AFTERNOON OVR
PROWERS AND ERN KIOWA COUNTIES...WHERE CAPE OF AROUND 2000
J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 KTS OR SO...ALONG WITH VEERING WIND
PROFILES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED DUE TO HIGH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH LCLS.

OTHER STORY FOR THE COMING WEEK WILL BE THE VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS BREAKING THE
90 DEGREE MARK OVR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS BOTH SAT AND
SUN...AND POSSIBLY INTO MON IF A COLD FRONT HOLDS OFF TIL LATE IN
THE DAY. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE PERSISTENT WRN TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS OVR THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL REMAIN  LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EWD INTO
KS...BUT WILL STILL SEE THE DRYLINE FLIRT WITH THE CO-KS BORDER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE POPS PICK UP A BIT AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS BOTH ARE
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO AZ AND NM IN THE
TUE-THU TIME PERIOD. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...FOR THE MTS EARLY ON...AND THEN POSSIBLY MORE ACTION
ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS PERSISTENT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME POCKETS OF LIFR FOG AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY. FOR KCOS AND
KPUB...EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 20-22Z...BEFORE CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND LIFT
22-00Z. THEN...EXPECT A FEW -SHRA AND -TSRA TO DEVELOP AFTER
22Z...CONTINUING UNTIL 04Z. OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL
REDEVELOP AND COVER BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY. AT
KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-225>227.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW