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000
FXUS65 KPUB 100519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. LATER TONIGHT...HIGH
LEVEL MSTR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM ANOTHER COUPLE
DEGREES OVR THE AREA. THEREFORE...HIGHS ON MON SHOULD BE ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

...BACK TO WINTER ON TUESDAY...

MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE CONTINUED WARM AND DRY
WEATHER...INTERRUPTED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN TURNING TO SNOW ON TUESDAY.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD THAT THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE BRINGING A HUGE AMOUNT OF QPF. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
AFD...COULD SEE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT DUE TO THE
STRONG NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
EARLIER IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...SO HAVE BUMPED DOWN HIGH TEMPS A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. MAY SEE THE MAX TEMP FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR REACHED IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE A
SUDDEN DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SURGE WILL HIT THE
PALMER BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z...THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY SOUTH TO THE RATON
BY 18-20Z. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE QUITE COLD FOR MARCH...MINUS
12-14C AT H7...SO EXPECT A PRETTY RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IF PRECIP
EVEN STARTS AS RAIN OVR THE PLAINS. SNOW ACCUMS CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIGHT...ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR MOST SPOTS...BUT SLIGHT NE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS SHOULD HELP BOOST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WETS...SANGRES...AND PIKES PEAK AREA TO POSSIBLY LOW-END ADVISORY
AMOUNTS OR IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE. SINCE IT IS STILL FOUR PERIODS
AWAY...WILL HOLD BACK ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 40-50 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO
THE STRONG PRESS GRADIENT. THAT COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH
BLOWING SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY.

SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TUE EVENING FROM N TO S...AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES ORPHANED OVER SW NV/NW AZ ON WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CO-NM LINE ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY BRING SOME LIGHT SHSN TO THE SW MTS ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT. OVER THE PLAINS...IT WILL
REMAIN COLD ON WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND BACK TO AVERAGE OR ABOVE FOR
THU-FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE ON THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM WHICH AGAIN
LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW SOME TIME NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
DELIVERS A GLANCING BLOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR NE...WHILE
THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND WOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SOME LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MDT PRECIP SAT OR EARLY NEXT SUN. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...GENERALLY FOR THE HYR TRRN.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH