Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241052
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
452 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS LED TO WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER TELLER
AND EL PASO COUNTIES...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
REMAINS CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OF COOLING
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS COLORADO.  EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH AT
ALAMOSA OF 70 WOULD TIE THE RECORD FOR THE DATE...WHILE FORECAST
HIGHS AT PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS...IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT RECORDS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. ON SUNDAY...DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AS IT DOES SO...DOWNSLOPE CHINOOK BREEZES PICK UP ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL BE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER DAY THAN WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE.
LOOKS MARGINAL FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. GRASSES HAVE CURED SO
FUELS ARE CRITICAL. COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS DAY AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ENERGY TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO RUN ABOUT 8500 FEET.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT COULD RUN ANYWHERE
FROM ABOUT 2 INCHES AROUND WOLF CREEK PASS...UP TO MAYBE 6 OR 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK. THERE COULD BE
A SPOTTY...BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ELSEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES ACROSS...WITH THE BEST ODDS RIGHT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT...ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...IF AT ALL.

AFTER THE DISTURBANCE GOES BY...THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SEEING FROST OR EVENING A KILLING FREEZE
TUESDAY MORNING.  EARLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE INDICATING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO
BLOW OUT SPRINKLER SYSTEMS...DISCONNECT HOSES AND DECIDE WHETHER
OR NOT TO CONTINUE PROTECTING PLANTS PRIOR TO MONDAY NIGHT.

OTHER THAN THE SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE MILD AND DRY FALL WEATHER
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT THERMALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE STATE. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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