Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1041 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions over Parts of the Area

Upper ridge over Colorado will gradually weaken tonight and Friday,
allowing increasing southwesterly flow over the region.  This will
bring increasing fire danger on Friday.  West to southwest winds
will begin to increase in the high country late tonight with gusts
to 40 mph possible in the mountains by Friday afternoon.  Gusts to
around 30 mph will become possible along and near the east slopes of
the mountains Friday afternoon.  These winds, in combination with
low relative humidities dropping below 15 percent, will elevate the
fire danger for areas along and near the mountains Friday afternoon.
After running the fire weather hazard checker, the areal coverage
and the duration of the event looks too low to warrant fire weather
highlights.  Regardless, there will be some local concerns for brief
periods tomorrow.  It is advisable to postpone outdoor burning or
any other activities that could accidentally start a wildfire.

Friday will be a really mild day across southern Colorado for mid
January.  Temperatures will be 20-25 degrees above average and
challenging records in many areas.  The normal, record and forecast
for Springs tomorrow is 43, 70(1986) and 67, respectively.  For
Pueblo, those numbers are 47, 75(1986) and 71.  For Alamosa, those
numbers are 34, 56(2000) and 53.  So, all 3 sites will be close.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Friday night through Sunday...Latest model runs continue to show
southwest flow aloft increasing Fri night ahead of the next incoming
system. This will help keep temps from bottoming out too much Fri
night, with lows in the 20s to mid 30s for the plains, and teens and
20s for the high valleys. As the upper low pressure system continues
moving east, pcpn is forecast to break out along the Continental
Divide Sat morning, then gradually sweep east across Colorado, with
showers then developing over the eastern plains Sat night as a sfc
cold front pushes south. Sat will be a very warm day with highs
expected to climb into the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near
70F for the plains, and spotty near-critical fire weather conditions
for the plains will once again be a concern.

The upper low pressure trough axis crosses the state Sun, and all
areas across the eastern plains should see some pcpn though actual
amounts are still a question. The system will cross the eastern
border and move into KS Sun night, and pcpn is forecast to come to
an end for most areas overnight into early Mon morning. As for
temps, Sun will be a very cold day with highs dropping 20 to 30
degrees from the previous day depending on the location. Expect max
temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations, with the
southeast corner of the state possibly warming to near 40F.

Monday through Thursday...Moderating west to northwest flow aloft
across the region, with another upper low pressure system digging
across the West Coast by Thu. Expect isolated snow showers over the
central mts through Thu, with a dry day on Wed when the upper flow
becomes more westerly. Temps each day will stay on the cool side
with highs in the 40s for the high valleys, and 40s to around 50F
for the eastern plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1037 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

High cirrus stratus will continue to spread across Colorado
resulting in VFR Cigs. Winds will increase tonight into Friday
with pockets of west winds spreading off the mountains into the
adjacent plains through the gaps and valleys Friday afternoon.
Winds at KCOS are more likely to remain light in the shadow of
Pikes Peak while areas just north and south of KCOS see breezy
southwest winds during the afternoon. KPUB is more likely to see
breezy west winds with gusts to around 20 kts in the afternoon.
KALS will see some stead southwest winds 10-15 kts pick up by late
afternoon. Winds will diminish after 01-02z for most areas with
continued high cloudiness into Friday night. -KT




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