Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141144
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 443 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

Currently...

Another hot and breezy day today. Temps were well into the 90s
across a parts of the plains as Lamar was 96F at 2 pm this
afternoon. Most other areas were in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Skies
were clear and it was breezy, with south to southwest winds in the
20 to 30 mph range. Humidities were in the 5 to 15% range across the
plains.

Higher elevations things were more reasonable with readings in the
70s in the valleys and 50s and 60s in the mtns. Skies were also
clear and it was breezy to windy.

Impressive gravity wave were clearly seen in the GOES 16 water vapor
channels.

Tonight...

temps tonight will likely be a bit warmer than last few nights as
winds across the plains should keep up, and expect 50s most areas
with a few low 60s possible across the far eastern plains. mtns and
valleys will be cool with  readings  in the 30s and 40s. Skies should
remain clear.

Tomorrow...

Expect max temps to be 2-3F cooler across the plains tomorrow as
compared to today. A few more higher clouds should also be noted.
Higher RH values are likely due to a combination of slightly cooler
air and increasing RH values, especially over the far eastern plains.
Along the i-25 corridor we may reach near critical fire weather
conditions at RH values will reach down to near 15%. It will once
again be breezy to windy all areas.

As for precip, we will likely see showers and some storms over the
San Juan mtns. As for the plains, I cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorms over the far southeast plains, but if it happens, it
will be late and likely over Baca county. Storms, if they develop,
have the potential to become strong. Over the remainder of the area
it should be dry tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 443 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Active weather pattern through the extended...

Thursday and Friday...As the upper trough sweeps across the region
Thursday and Friday, look for pcpn chances to spread across all of
the mts as well as the plains as a cold front drops south across the
Palmer Divide between 21z-00z Thursday afternoon. The heaviest
snowfall is forecast to last through midday Thursday before waning,
so have the winter weather highlight lasting until 18z. The upper
trough passes to the east Friday morning, so pcpn will come to an
end for all areas by midday. Another quick-moving upper shortwave
will bring a quick hit of snow to the central mts Friday night but
amounts should be light. Look for max temps in the 40s for the high
valleys and 50s to mid 60s for the plains on Thursday, then 40s for
most locations on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...Dry nw flow aloft across the region for
Saturday, transitioning to a more westerly direction through Sunday
as the next upper low pressure trough drops out of the Pacific NW.
Temps will rebound into the mid 40s to lower 50s for the high
valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the plains for Saturday, then
upper 50s to upper 60s for Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...EC and GFS models are coming into more of an
agreement now for the start of the next work week, as the next upper
trough drops south across the western US. This will bring a return
of snow to the region late Sunday night through Tuesday with the mts
having a high probability of accumulating snow. A cold front early
Monday morning, coupled with increasing cloud cover, should cool
temps into the mid 40s to mid 50s for Monday, then upper 30s to mid
40s for Tuesday. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 443 AM MST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Gusty southwest winds will occur at all 3 taf sites the rest of this
afternoon and early evening. Winds will decrease later this evening
but will pick up from the south-southwest again tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ058-060-068.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ061-073-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH


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