Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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930
FXUS65 KPUB 230530
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Disturbance lifting northeast from northern New Mexico has
helped generate thunderstorms across the southern portions of the
southeast plains. This is also likely due to a strengthening low
level jet. Will keep thunderstorms going in the forecast for the
southern and eastern sections of the area where lift and the low
level jet will gradually shift eastward. Thunderstorms should
diminish by 06z if not a little sooner. Meanwhile...a steady
stream of moisture and weak disturbances will likely keep showers
going most of the night across the interior mountains. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Primary near/short tern meteorological issues include
qpf...temperatures and storm intensity. Forecast district currently
noting generally above seasonal latter August temperatures in
combination with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity(primarily over the western 2/3rds of the forecast district
early this afternoon).

Recent real-time data...computer simulations...PV analysis...and
forecast model soundings indicate that adequate atmospheric moisture
interacting with upper disturbances(per latest PV analysis) and a
northerly surge moving across the forecast district Tuesday will
allow isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into at least this evening and then again on Tuesday...with
some of the stronger storms capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding issues as well as hail and gusty wind
potential. As always...WFO Pueblo will continue to monitor closely.

In addition to some gusty surface winds associated with the
northerly surge on Tuesday...anticipate that near to above seasonal
latter August minimum and maximum temperatures should continue over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Broad troughieness/light to modest sw flow aloft will be over the
region during the extended period. Moisture is expected to stay in
place...although some days will be wetter than others. Temperatures
should be on the seasonable side, with a bit warmer temperatures
occurring at the end of the period. Flash flooding issues will be
possible in the mountains, especially across the Hayden Scar.

Tuesday night...

A decent amount of moisture will combine with a weak mid lvl
disturbance along with a frontal boundary moving south over the
plains to bring showers to the region during the evening and late
night time period. Overall best chance of storms in the early
evening appear to be across the central mtn areas with the precip
moving e-ne towards the Denver metro area. With abundant mstr over
the area and weak lift...showers and isold storms will likely last
into the late night time period, especially over the contdvd
region. With lots of clouds over the region, we should see mild
morning lows early Wed morning.

Wednesday...

With upslope in place over the plains, may see quite a bit of
clouds over the plains this day. This will keep temps cool (aoa
80) and may limit instability over the region. Likewise we may not
see all that much precip over the lower elevations during the day.
However, a well defined trough will still be over the 4 corners
and this should allow for quite a bit of showers and storms to
develop over the mtns. As the disturbance moves east along the
CO/NM border, showers and storms will push out onto the plains,
especially across the Spanish Peaks/Raton Mesa region. This
activity will likely last into the early morning hours. Clouds
will likely linger over the region.

Thursday...

Weak forcing will still be over CO aloft on this day. However
simulations still show limited instability over the plains...so
showers and storms once again be mainly relegated to the higher
terrain.

Friday and into the weekend...

Weak flow aloft with baggy troughieness is expected to
continue...although troughieness does not appear to be as well
defined as previous days. Guidance continues to keep moisture over
the region so we will see scattered showers over the higher trrn
with isold to sctd showers over the lower elevations.

Summarizing...

Overall it is likely going to be wet over the mtns during this
period with occasional storms over the plains. Burn scars will an
issue, especially the Hayden Pass scar. Flash Flooding and debris
flows have started with this burn scar as rains over the last few
days have caused debris issues. The ground is saturated and it is
not going to dry out during this period. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions expected overnight with a few lingering showers
across the mountains. Another round of thunderstorms will develop
over the mountains and spread eastward across plains during the
late afternoon and evening. CIGS will primarily remain VFR...but
with a good chance at -TSRA at the KCOS terminal will introduce a
prevailing period of -TSRA around 00z. Timing could end up
shifting by an hour or two...but most active period appears to be
between 00z-03z. Chances look lower at KPUB and KALS but there
could still be a period during the early evening at both terminals.
A front will drop through the plains during the evening shifting
winds out of the north at 15-25 kts at both KCOS and KPUB. KALS
will also see winds shift out of the northwest around 15 kts
during the evening. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT



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