Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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084
FXUS65 KPUB 212250
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
350 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

...Fire Weather Concerns will continue into at least Thursday...

Currently...

At 2 pm, temperatures were quite warm with records being set at KPUB
and KCOS. Temps were around 80F at La Junta and Lamar, with 70s
across the rest of the plains (These temps are about 25F above
normal for the plains). Breezy conditions were noted along the I-25
corridor, with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range (with PUB having the
strongest winds). With RH values in the single digits in many places
along the I-25 corridor, red flag conditions were being realized.

Tonight...

Breezy to windy conditions will continue into tonight across the
fcst area, with winds ticking upwards during the early morning
hours.  In general, strongest winds will occur in the mtns and on
the east slopes of the southern mtns and adjacent plains.
Specifically, hi-res guidance clearly indicates the stronger winds
on the east slopes of many of the mtns, including the Ramparts, the
north and east slopes of Pike Peak, parts of the Sangres and Wets,
and especially the Central Mtns. A broader area of stronger winds
was noted over the greater lower elevations of the Huerfano county
region. These stronger winds are in response to a mtn wave which
will affect the region tonight. Inversion is not all that impressive
but there is favorable reverse shear, so we will definitely see some
stronger winds tonight although I dont think we will see winds
exceeding high wind criteria over a large enough area to warrant a
high wind warning.

Given the strong downslope over the region and the warm air
that is already in place, Min temps tonight will be very warm across
a good part of the region, especially along and west of the I-25
corridor region.

As for precip, some light snow showers will be possible across the
central mountains with an inch or two of snow possible. Snow showers
will also be possible across the San Juans. All other areas will
remain dry.

Wednesday...

Another warm and windy day is likely. Red Flag conditions will be a
bit more widespread tomorrow. Have upgraded the fire weather watch
to a red flag warning, The red flag warning will include a slightly
larger area than today, and includes all of the greater I-25 corridor
region and areas a bit farther east. Winds tomorrow will be quite
strong along the greater I-25 corridor region with winds gusting to
35 to 45 mph. Gusty winds will also occur across the remainder of
the the region, with the only exception being the eastern plains
generally east of La Junta. The overall strongest winds will occur
at mtn top across the San Juans and southern Sangre de Cristo range.

As for pops, isold to scattered snow showers will be possible once
again across the central mtns and San Juans.

Temps tomorrow will be similar or slightly warmer than todays max
temps. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Main meteorological challenges during the longer term continue to
be temperatures, pops and gusty winds at times as well as
localized elevated fire weather conditions for Thursday and then
again by early next week.

Latest longer term PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast
model soundings suggest that(outside of the Continental Divide) a
basically dry and continued mild southwesterly upper flow pattern
should occur over the majority of the forecast district into
Thursday with a northerly surface surge moving across eastern
sections Thursday night. If latest trends continue another fire
weather highlight may become necessary for many eastern sections
Thursday.

Regarding the Continental Divide, passing upper disturbances are
expected to enhance precipitation chances from later Wednesday
night into Thursday and especially from later Sunday into next
Tuesday, while locations generally east of the Interstate 25
corridor should experience generally dry conditions from Wednesday
night into Monday night with pops potentially increasing by next
Tuesday as stronger north-northeasterly surface surge interacts
with upper level disturbances.

In addition, as touched upon earlier localized elevated fire
weather concerns will be possible over primarily eastern
portions of the forecast district Thursday and then again by early
next week. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely.

Regarding temperatures, generally near to below seasonal
temperatures are anticipated from Thursday into next Tuesday with
coolest temperature readings expected Friday and Saturday(and as
discussed in a previous discussion, locations such as Colorado
Springs may struggle to get out of the 30s both Friday and
Saturday).

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast
district during the longer term are still anticipated from
Wednesday night into Thursday night and then again from Saturday
into next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 350 PM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Main concern will be gusty westerly winds
at times at all 3 sites. At KALS, gusty winds will occur primarily
tomorrow afternoon. At KCOS and KPUB, gusty winds will be possible
throughout the next 24 hour time period. The overall strongest winds
will occur tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ222-
226>233.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ221-222-
226>230.

&&

$$



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