Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Tonight the upper level ridge wl be centered over nern OK and should
move little on Wed.  This wl leave the forecast area of the west
side of the upper ridge and wl allow the stream of mstr from the
south to continue ovr wrn CO.  Scattered showers/tstms can be
expected to continue over and nr the higher terrain thru the evening
hours, with probably some isold activity along the I-25 corridor,
and little chance for pcpn ovr the far sern plains.  Wed should be
much like today, with showers/tstms likely developing ovr some of
the hyr trrn by late morning, and then increasing in coverage and
spreading to the nearby lower elevations thru the afternoon.  High
temps on Wed should generally be around normal in the high valleys,
with readings in the 90`s to lower 100`s acrs the sern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

...Cooler by the Weekend...

No big changes to the long term forecast. Monsoonal pattern will
hold through Thursday, bringing daily chances of storms to the
mountains each afternoon, with ISOLD activity spreading eastward
to the Plains by late afternoon through the evenings. Storms
should be on the weak side given lack of vertical shear, but
there could be some locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon high
Temps will remain close to 100 degrees for the Plains as the
dome of very warm air remains to our east.

By Friday, the upper high will begin to slide EWD into NM, and
eventually elongate and weaken across the Desert SW. A series of
short waves will be moving through the Rockies at the same time.
First front associated with these waves will move in late Fri or
early Sat, followed by a second frontal system late in the weekend
or early next week. This will push temps back to near average or
even possibly below average as we head into the latter part of
July. The fronts along with continued moisture advection from the
south will tend to keep good chances of precip over our area
through the weekend and into next week. A little early to say, but
there also could be some potential for strong to severe storms
during this period. Nothing too unusual for mid Summer in the
Rockies. Rose


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Vfr conditions are expected during the next 24h at all 3 taf and cos. isold tsra will be possible tomorrow
afternoon and evening at each of the taf sites. Brief periods of
mvfr could occur if a heavier storm moves over the taf site.
Locally gusty winds will be possible with any nearby tsra.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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