Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211016
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 AM MDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Currently...

Abundant moisture associated with remnants of TC Paine were moving
over the southwest CONUS. Several bands of showers were noted in the
radar mosaics (Note: KGJX is out for scheduled long term
maintenance upgrade). It was still quite mild at 4 am as temps were
still mostly around 70F across the plains with cooler temps over the
higher terrain. Some snow was likely falling well above treeline.

Today...

The combination with a tightening 500 mb gradient associated with a
major trough moving onshore from the Pacific and the remnant
moisture of TC Paine will allow for lots of mid and high level
clouds over the region today. On and off showers will occur over the
higher terrain with the southwest mountains being favored. Areas
from the La Garitas to the Salida region may also see an enhanced
area of showers as per latest HRRR guidance. Isolated showers and
storms will also occur over the plains...especially along a trough
axis which will extend from roughly Trinidad to Lamar. Some locally
heavy showers will be possible.

Another warm day will occur across the plains although temps should
be tempered a bit due to the cloudiness over the region. Breezy
southwest winds will occur at times over the plains. It will be
windy across the mountaintops today...especially this morning.

Tonight...

Somewhat drier air will move into the region and precip chances will
significantly decrease across most of the region as the evening
progresses. Breezy conditions will continue over the higher
elevations and over the plains mainly south of a line from Lamar to
Trinidad. Another mild night is likely across the plains due to the
breezy conditions and clouds...and lows will likely remain in the
50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Models in good agreement through the extended period. Much cooler
temperatures are on the way after a few more warm days.

Thursday and Friday...a strong upper level low is forecast to
develop over the Great Basin, forcing high pressure to build
across the central plains. This will bring continued moist
southerly flow to southern Colorado. Expect to see showers and
thunderstorms develop over the mountains on Thursday afternoon,
and spread northeast across the Palmer Divide into northeast
Colorado Thursday evening. Gusty winds are also expected across
the plains on Thursday, however, humidity values are expected to
remain in excess of 15 percent, with near critical fire weather
conditions expected. Models are also developing scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the far eastern plains Thursday evening,
which will move east into Kansas overnight.

Severe weather and dangerous fire weather conditions are possible
on Friday. The upper low is forecast to shift east into Utah on
Friday with increasing southerly flow across Colorado. Models
develop a surface low over northern Colorado by Friday afternoon
with a dryline extending south across our plains. Decent moisture,
strong shear and modest instability should allow for thunderstorm
development Friday afternoon along the boundary. Strong to severe
storms are possible, with strong out flow winds in excess of 60
mph and 1 inch diameter hail being the main threats. Current model
projections have the greatest threat for severe weather east of a
Fowler to Trinidad line, but much will depend on how far east/west
the dryline sets up.

Strong southwesterly winds and drier air is expected west of the
dryline, generally in the lee of the eastern mountains into the
I-25 corridor. Humidity values look to fall right near 15 percent
Friday afternoon producing dangerous fire weather conditions. This
will need to be monitored closely.

Temperatures will remain warm Thursday and Friday with upper 80s
to mid 90s expected across the lower elevations.

Saturday into Sunday...the upper low is forecast to lift into the
northern plains over the weekend with energy splitting over the
desert southwest. Saturday looks to be generally dry across the
area as the upper system splits. Temperatures will be much cooler
with mostly 70s across the area. A strong cold front will drop
south Saturday night with a northerly wind shift by Sunday
morning. Models agree on the front, but not with precipitation
chances. The GFS is dry behind the front on Sunday. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF develops widespread showers across the area behind the
front due to better upslope flow and moisture. For now have low
pops for upslope favored areas of the plains. Reduced afternoon
highs on Sunday to the upper 60s to lower 70s, however, a few
solutions are indicating temperatures may not get out of the upper
50s. If precipitation does fall over the mountains this weekend, a
few inches of snow are possible above 10 kft.

Monday into Tuesday...the upper system will continue to lift into
the Great Lakes region while high pressure builds over the western
states into Colorado. This should bring drier conditions along
with a warming trend early next week. Any precipitation should
remain confined to the higher terrain and be diurnally driven.
Temperatures will rebound back into the 70s to lower 80s.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Sep 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpux...kals and kcos. Breezy 20ft sfc winds will prevail
this afternoon. An isold shra.-tsra will be possible but any precip
will likely be brief. Lots of clouds will prevail but they will be
mid and upper lvl clouds.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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