Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 240150
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
650 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

ADJUSTED NDFD TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH
DOWN THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERY STRONG (160 KT) JET DIGS SOUTH INTO AZ. STILL SOME
NARROW BANDED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS
OF 22Z WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...WHILE SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS MOST
WESTERN VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS LULL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED...AS NEW ROUND OF SNOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO WILL REACH THE SAWATCH RANGE BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER WEST...SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE AMOUNTS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY...COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL WARRANT KEEPING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS OF CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTY INTO MON. WITH SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
AND DYNAMIC LIFTING DIMINISHING...WILL REMOVE ADVISORIES FROM
SHADOWED LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND LEADVILLE AREA...AS ANY
SNOWFALL THESE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT. ALSO DROPPED ADVISORIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS UNFAVORABLE NW UPPER FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS NEVER COMPLETELY DECOUPLE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AT MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AND WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY SHARP
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT SNOWFALL TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINTER STORM
WARNING GOING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY BY
EARLY MON EVENING. REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST MANY AREAS
INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...SUSPECT GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM AND WILL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT
STILL HAVING ISSUES LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE DECENT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW ACTIVITY OVER THE
REST OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
PRINTING OUT LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ALMOST ALL SNOW
ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING ALL NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND
RIDGE TO OUR WEST...PUTTING SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONVERGED ON A
SOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS BRING A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFERENT BY SATURDAY. THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
CLOUDY COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS CANADA WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ONLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND REMAINING NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SOME -SHSN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AT 22Z...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT KCOS AND KPUB UNDER THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END 00Z-01Z AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TERMINALS FROM 01Z THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON MON. AT KALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS -
SHSN STAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM KMYP NORTHWARD WILL
BECOME OBSCURED BY SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MON. FROM KMYP SOUTH TO KCPW...SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY...ALTHOUGH PEAKS AND HIGH PASSES WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MON.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE -SHSN END 00Z-01Z THIS EVENING WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND MON MORNING. -SHSN WILL REDEVELOP MON
AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED AT TIMES UNTIL 00Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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