Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1048 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

...Mountain snow and I-25 corridor wind to continue...

Fast wly flow will persist across Colorado today and tonight, with
strong upper wave over the nrn Great Basin this morning moving
across the state overnight into early Thursday morning. Over the
eastern mountains and plains, still seeing some local 50-65 knot
gusts from the Rampart Range south to Cheyenne Mountain early this
morning, with another area of 40-50 knot winds along the NM border
near Raton Pass. For the remainder of the morning, will keep the
High Wind Warning in place for all of the eastern mountains and the
I-25 corridor, with strongest winds shifting south toward the
southern I-25 region (Walsenburg and Trinidad) as mountain wave
breaks down, leaving La Veta Pass gap flow and brute force mixing as
the main drivers of strong/damaging winds. In fact, latest HRRR
suggests 50 kt gusts may persist past 18z across Las Animas county,
with at least a couple hour extension of the warning possible for a
few zones near the NM border. Despite expiration of warning at
midday for Colorado Springs and Pueblo, winds will remain strong
through the afternoon, with gusts in the 40-45 knot range possible.

Over the mountains, light snow along the Continental Divide this
morning will gradually increase in intensity today into this evening,
with periods of heavy snow likely, especially over the central
mountains north of Monarch Pass. Suspect snowfall amounts may come
up a little short of warning numbers over the San Juans/La Garitas
as mid level flow remains wly, though combination of strong wind and
occasional snow will certainly keep travel conditions difficult into
this evening. As trough pushes east overnight, snowfall should taper
back to flurries/snow showers, with bulk of accumulation done by 06-
09z. With the wind and a very mild start this morning, max temps
will again reach above average levels, with 60s common over the
eastern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

Active pattern in store with snow again on the Continental Divide,
and probability of snow, will a little ice across the eastern part
of the CWA.

THursday through Saturday,
Another in a round of systems moving through the fast west to
southwest flow aloft will impact the Continental Divide. While
there will be some light snow or flurries during the day, the snow
and wind will likely ramp up again later Thursday and continue
into Saturday. Models show the focus of the snow trending toward
the eastern San Juans and La Garitas by Saturday. With the closed
upper low south of California, moist air well in advance across
the southern plains is advected into southern Colorado by Saturday
morning. There will be a potential for a band of snow and rain to
develop across the southeast plains, with a bit of freezing rain
possible in the far southeast plains during the day, before
temperatures rise above freezing. At this time, it looks like the
greatest potential for significant icing will be well east of the
area, but the potential needs to be watched as the system evolves.

Saturday night through Sunday night, As the upper low moving
along the US-Mexican border, upper lift forecast to break out an
area of snow and rain for a time Saturday evening then all snow
across the I-25 corridor and southeast plains. There is a
potential for travel issues with this episode, so continue to
monitor the latest forecasts, and plan accordingly. The limiting
factor for snow accumulations and road conditions will be the
potential for the forecast above freezing high temperatures. Both
GFS and European models are in fairly good agreement with the
track of the upper low across southern, then east central New
Mexico. This would put southeast Colorado in an area of broad lift
and in relatively cold air.

The upper low is forecast to move across the Panhandle area,
putted southeast Colorado in an area of broad lift and precipitation,
mainly snow, and mainly in the morning. The GFS has the upper low
barely moving through the day, while the European has it tracking
through western and north central Kansas. Time will tell.

Regardless,Tuesday is forecast to be a quiet weather day in the
wake of the system, and temperatures will be seasonal mild.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1043 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight.
Periods of strong west winds will continue in the lee of the
eastern mountains and across the plains through the day. Possible
gusts in the 35-45 knot range at KCOS and KPUB until 00-02z. Over
the mountains, snow will persist along the Continental Divide,
with peaks and passes obscured by clouds and snow through tonight.
Generally IFR to LIFR across the Continental Divide.


Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ058>061-

High Wind Warning until noon MST today for COZ072>075-078>088.



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