Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1033 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

Updated forecast grids to incorporate latest obs data, and to
better show latest satellite trends. Fairly uniform cirrus shield
across all of the forecast area this evening as the approaching
low pressure system nears. In addition, lowered dewpoint temps
slightly tomorrow, though RH levels still remain above critical
fire weather conditions. Ongoing temps and highlights look
good. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

Active meteorological conditions anticipated during the near
term(especially over western portions) with primary near/short range
concerns including qpf, snow amounts, temperatures, gusty winds and
near critical fire weather and blowing dust potential over portions
of the southeastern Colorado Plains by Sunday afternoon.

Forecast district currently graced by continued near to above
seasonal late November afternoon temperatures, dry conditions,
encroaching clouds over far southwestern sections and localized
gusty winds as evidenced by recent wind gusts in excess of 20 mph at
both La Veta pass and the Air Force Academy respectively.

Recent real-time data, PV analysis, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings indicate that upper disturbance(per PV
analysis...etc.) will begin impacting the Continental Divide and
western higher terrain locations,  especially the eastern San Juan
mountains by later tonight with snow...heavy at times in combination
with strong winds at times.  Have maintained existing winter weather
highlights over western higher terrain locations, which run from 11
PM tonight until 11 PM Sunday

Elsewhere, as the initial upper disturbance moves across the
forecast district from later tonight into Sunday...will also
continue to depict basically low grade pops from late tonight into
early Sunday afternoon with precipitation potential then ending
during the afternoon hours, primarily east of the Interstate 25
corridor.

In addition, have depicted wind gusts exceeding 40 knots
at times over many sections Sunday and especially Sunday afternoon
with areas of blowing dust possible over the southeastern plains
Sunday afternoon.

Also, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are also
anticipated, primarily over sections of the far southeastern
Colorado plains by Sunday afternoon, although confidence not high
enough to issue a fire weather highlight due to uncertainties in
coverage and duration. As always, WFO Pueblo will continue to
monitor closely.

Finally...above seasonal minimum temperatures are anticipated over
most locations tonight, while near to above seasonal maximum
temperatures are projected over eastern portions Sunday, while below
seasonal temperatures are depicted over western sections on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

...Turning Colder Next Week...

The weather pattern over the western U.S. is in transition.  Snow
and wind will continue along the Continental Divide Sunday evening
before letting up toward Monday morning.  Cold wind and a smattering
of snow showers will be noted elsewhere.

During the first half of Monday, the snow will essentially let up
over the area but not for long.  By Monday afternoon, the next storm
system will already be on its way into Colorado from the Pacific
Northwest.  This next system will again favor the Continental Divide
with snow Monday through Monday evening, while just a smattering of
activity occurs elsewhere.

While we definitely need some snow to hit the valleys, eastern
mountains and plains, at least we are starting to get some along the
Continental Divide.  Not only is this great for the ski areas and
commerce in general but it is crucial to summer water supplies.  It
is important to get a heavy, wet base on the slopes now so we can
fully reap the benefits of colder, drier snows to come later in the
winter.  Often times, it is hard to catch up if you don`t get the
snow on the ground now.

Tuesday through the end of the week, southern Colorado will enter a
period of cold and somewhat unsettled weather.  For the first time
this season, a long wave trough of low pressure will take up
residence over the western U.S. and Rockies.  Most of the fall
season has been dominated by a long wave ridge of high pressure over
the western U.S. and Rockies which has resulted in the warm and dry
weather.  With a long wave trough over the area instead, the weather
pattern will turn colder with increased chances for snow.

Starting Tuesday, temperatures look like they`ll run about 5 to 10
degrees below average each day right on through Saturday.  We
haven`t seen more than a day or 2 of below average temperatures all
fall!  The plains and mountain valleys will generally see highs in
the 30s and 40s with lows in the teens or single digits each day.
The mountains will be even colder with highs in the teens and 20s
and lows mostly in the single digits.  Again, this isn`t a pattern
we`ve been familiar with this fall.  So, brace for it!

As for the snow chances from Tuesday onward, nothing too impressive
is showing up yet. Cold north to northwest flow should provide the
necessary forcing for mountain snow showers, particularly along the
Continental Divide, through about Wednesday.  Thursday looks dry
under brief shortwave ridging.  Then, Thursday night, a new weather
system digs south from the Pacific Northwest that drops all the way
into Mexico by Saturday afternoon.  This system passes pretty far to
the west of Colorado which will really limit its potential impact
on the area. However, it should increase snow chances again over
the western mountain areas Thursday through Saturday. It may also
drop into position for some snow showers over southern parts of
the forecast area, along the New Mexico border, Friday night and
Saturday. Still a bit far out to call at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Sat Nov 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS and KPUB the next 24 hrs.
There will be the possibility of some showers in the vcnty of KCOS
and KPUB Sunday morning, but chances are too low to include in the
terminal forecast. KALS will see lowering cloud bases tonight with
snow showers probably moving into the area and the potential for
IFR or MVFR conditions. All terminal forecast sites will see
strong west to southwest winds develop Sunday, with gusts of 30 to
35 kts and possibly higher at times. Winds will decrease Sunday
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ058>061-
066-067.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Sunday for COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...28



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