Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190521
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

...Snow Showers Central Mountains and Increasing Winds...

An upper level disturbance will move through the northern Rockies
late tonight and Wednesday.  This disturbance will bring some snow
showers to the high terrain of the central mountains late tonight
and Wednesday, especially during the late night and early morning
hours.  Elsewhere, this disturbance will bring gusty winds from the
west shifting northwest late tonight and Wednesday. Speeds will
generally range from 15 to 30 mph by Wednesday morning.  Speeds in
and near the mountains will generally be the highest with gusts up
to about 40 mph possible.  Farther east across the plains, speeds
will gradually decrease as you head east of the I-25 corridor. Temps
may drop off a little Wednesday but the bulk of the cooling won`t
come until later.  Fire weather conditions may climb to near
critical levels over parts of the lower elevations Wednesday.
However, the fuels across most of the lower elevation zones are
currently rated non-critical due to the early stages of a greenup
that is underway resulting from the heavy precipitation that fell at
the end of March and the first part of April.  No fire weather
highlights but caution to avoid activities that could accidentally
start a wildfire is advised.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period, with an upper system late week.

Wednesday night...westerly flow across the region will increase
ahead of a developing upper level storm system over the northern
Rockies by Thursday morning. A few light showers may be possible
Wednesday evening before dissipating overnight.

Thursday through Saturday...a strong upper level disturbance will
drop southeast out of the northern Rockies and across Colorado
during this period. Expect southeasterly moist upslope flow across
the Plains by Thursday afternoon. Models develop convection over
the Eastern Mountains during the afternoon hours and spread it
east across the Plains Thursday night. Modest instability and
shear may allow for one or two storms to briefly become strong
with small hail and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall may also
be possible through Thursday evening.

By Friday morning, the upper disturbance will be moving across
Colorado into northwestern Oklahoma. Broad northerly flow will
fill in behind the departing system. Models in good agreement with
continued showers across the region through Friday afternoon.
Cooler air will also filter in across Colorado which may lower
snow levels down to around 7-8 kft, with several inches possible
above these elevations. Overnight lows Friday night will drop into
the mid 30s across much of the lower elevations. Expect
precipitation to wind down overnight with clearing conditions
through the day on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...flow will transition westerly Sunday into
Monday as an upper disturbances passes to the north. A tightening
gradient will likely lead to gusty winds Sunday afternoon through
the overnight into Monday. Generally dry conditions are expected
with perhaps a few showers over the mountains by Tuesday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1118 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected at the terminal forecast sites through
the next 24 hrs. Westerly winds are expected to increase in the
morning hours and remain gusty through the afternoon. Wind gusts
of 25 to 35 kts are expected. In the late afternoon or early
evening hours winds at KCOS and KPUB will become northerly and
gusty.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



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