Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261044
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
444 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGH FIRE DANGER
ELSEWHERE...

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  SPEEDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES AND
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS.  SOME AREAS WHERE
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...EASTERN FREMONT AND WESTERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES...HUERFANO COUNTY AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS...CAUTION IS STILL NEEDED TODAY.  IT IS STILL A RISKY DAY
FOR BURNING DUE TO THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS.

AS THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE THE
WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COOLER...MORE SEASONAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EC MODELS THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CO PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS
IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOT AT SOME PCPN THROUGH
THE DAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END BY LATE EVENING
OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST SO FAR WITH 20S POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE E PLAINS...AND SOME SORT OF FREEZE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE PLAINS IS
PROBABLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR TUE...DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
BUT WITH SUCH A COLD START PLANNED...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S
TO RIGHT AROUND 60F.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE DESERT SW...CONTINUING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS...AND THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO ON
FRI...AND SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
INCOMING TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S
FOR FRI...THEN NEARING 70F FOR THE PLAINS ON SAT. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED MOISTURE TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...BEGINNING FRI EVE AND
LASTING OVER THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. THIS AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE BRUNT OF THE STORM...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY 06Z TONIGHT
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.  ONLY VERY SPOTTY SUCH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH MONDAY.  WHILE IMPACTED BY THE
INCREASED WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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