Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 202049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating center
of the upper high over southwest Colorado owning to weak west to
southwest flow aloft across the state, as a minor embedded wave
continues to translate through the faster zonal flow aloft across
the Northern Tier and Northern Rockies. At this surface, a weak
boundary associated with the passing wave moved across northeastern
Colorado this morning and looks to be stalling just north of the
Highway 50 corridor at this time. Temperatures south of the boundary
have warmed into the mid 90s to lower 100s across the eastern
plains, while temperatures north of the boundary have been slowly
cooling with DIA currently sitting at 71F as of 2pm. Regional radars
indicating isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing over the higher terrain, with the best coverage east of

Tonight-Tuesday..The center of large upper high progged to slowly
drift south and east into the four corners region through the day
tomorrow, with flow aloft becoming more westerly though remaining

Latest SPC meso analysis indicating CAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG over and
near the eastern mountains with less CAPE across the the rest of the
area at this time. The weak flow aloft is owning to only modest
shear across the area, though with the stalling boundary, could see
enough shear to support a strong storm or two, mainly north and west
of the Highway 50 and I-25 corridors through the evening, as
supported by latest higher res models. Main threats looks to be
strong gusty winds, though could not rule out some hail and locally
heavy rainfall with a the strongest storms. Convection diminishes
through the evening, with clearing skies and lows slightly above
seasonal averages overnight.

Weak lee troughing progged across the eastern plains supporting good
mixing and helping to boost highs into the 90s to lower 100s across
the lower elevations tomorrow, with 70s and 80s expected across the
higher terrain and mainly 60s at the peaks. There remains enough
moisture in place under the ridge to work with another weak wave
riding the periphery of the ridge to support isolated to scattered
showers and storms across the area tomorrow afternoon, mainly over
the higher terrain with best coverage along and west of the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Upper trof moving across northern MT into ND will cut down the
northward extent of the upper ridge Tuesday, sending a front
through the southeast CO plains Tuesday night. Low level flow will
turn easterly on Wednesday with upslope providing focus for
thunderstorms across the southeast mountains once again. Rather
flat westerly flow aloft with embedded disturbances will also help
initiate thunderstorms across the central and southwest mountains
during the afternoon where dew points will be slowly increasing as
moisture circulates up under the ridge. Across the plains, models
stall the front along the southern CO border with an axis of
higher CAPE right along/immediately behind the front across the
southern counties. Dew points along the Arkansas river and points
northward drop off into the lower 40s which really cuts back CAPE
values to the north of the boundary. Deep layer shear looks on the
marginal side...especially southern areas, but pooling of CAPE
could lead to one or two strong to near severe storms this day
along the southern CO border. Elsewhere, locally heavy rainfall,
small hail, gusty winds, and lightning threat will be the primary
threats. Activity drifts eastward and diminishes Wednesday night.

Thursday looks like another fairly active day.  Southerly flow
across the plains advects low level moisture back northward, so
CAPE across the SE Mts and plains could be a tad higher. Deep
layer shear still looks a little lacking due to light flow
aloft, so main threat looks like lightning and locally heavy
rainfall with at least some threat for sub severe hail and wind.

Next upper trof moves in from the Pacific northwest into the
northern U.S Rockies on Friday.  Increasing southwest flow aloft
should start to dry out the mountains, though not enough to
completely curtail isolated thunderstorm development. Temperatures
should start to heat up again on the plains with readings hitting
around 100. Will have to watch the dry line/sfc trof axis for
thunderstorm development during the afternoon across the
plains, but CAPEs do not look terribly high, so main threat may
be gusty winds and lightning.

Southern extent of the upper trof swings through on
Saturday sending another front through the area which may provide
the focus for thunderstorm development across the southeast
mountains and plains. Western mountains continue to look hot and

Upper Ridge rebuilds over the western US for Sunday into next
Monday suggesting drier and warmer conditions. -KT


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours.

A weak boundary has stalled just north of the Highway 50 corridor
with the best available moisture remaining along and north of this
boundary. Isolated to scattered storms have developed across the
higher terrain this afternoon with the best coverage east of the
CONTDVD at this time. Still looking for storms to spread south and
east across the mountains and into the immediate adjacent plains
through the early evening, with best chances of storms affecting the
terminals at COS. Storms will be capable of producing strong and
gusty outflow winds, as well mainly small hail and brief heavy
rainfall. Storms diminish after sunset with clearing skies and
generally light drainage winds overnight. Isolated to scattered
afternoon storms are again expected over the higher terrain tomorrow


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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