Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Some freezing/near freezing temperatures noted over many Interstate
25 corridor locations early this morning, therefore will continue
the freeze warning over El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano and western Las
Animas counties through 9 AM MDT this morning.

Otherwise, outside of the possibility of localized low grade
primarily higher terrain showers, primarily during the afternoon
hours, expect that warmer and drier conditions will be noted over
the forecast district during the next 24 hours as drier/warmer
northwesterly upper flow develops over southern Colorado.

Maximum temperatures today should climb some 5F to 15F over the
majority of the forecast district(especially eastern sections),
however maximum temperatures will still be running around 15F cooler
than later May climatological averages.

In addition, minimum temperatures on Sunday morning(when compared to
this morning) are expected to climb some 4F to 8F over the majority
of the forecast district, therefore will refrain from hoisting any
frost/freeze highlights over the Interstate 25 corridor for Saturday
night/Sunday morning, although pockets of freezing/near freezing
minimum temperatures will be possible, favoring locations such as
portions of northern El Paso county by Sunday morning.

Finally, gusty gradient winds at times are anticipated(as noted by
northwest winds gusting to around 25 mph at Springfield early this
morning), especially over far eastern portions of the forecast
district in the wake of the vigorous closed upper low pulling away
from Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Next upper wave embedded in NW flow aloft approaches the area Sun
afternoon/evening, with modest upward motion developing across the
region. Moisture and instability rather limited, which should
keep precip isolated to scattered, though just enough CAPE most
locations for the threat of a weak -tsra by late day. Far sern
corner of the plains outlooked for a marginal svr risk Sun, where
slightly better CAPE (500-800 J/KG) and 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts
may combine to produce a low end svr storm. By Sun evening, upward
motion increases across the far eastern plains as low level jet
cranks up, and suspect some sort of MCS to migrate from sern CO
into wrn KS by late evening/overnight, leaving just isolated
lingering -shra farther west across most of srn CO. Stronger wave
and accompanying cold front then dive toward the area late Mon/Mon
night, bringing another round of -shra/-tsra, with eastern
mountains and plains again favored. Certainly enough shear for a
severe storm or two across the plains Mon afternoon, but
instability appears to be lacking, with capes only in the 400-600
J/KG range most locations. Marginal risk again creeps up into the
far sern corner of the area, where strongest forcing for tsra will
be found ahead of the cold front. Best lift then shifts east Tue
morning, with lingering weak convection across the mountains and
far sern plains into Tue afternoon.

Drier/warmer conditions then develop Wed/Thu as upper ridge
migrates across the Rockies, before flow flattens toward the end
of the week, bringing back some moisture and at least isolated
convection to the mountains by the weekend.

After some modest warming Sun/Mon, max temps cool back to well
below average on Tue, before a climb back to near or even slightly
above average from Wed into the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

VFR conditions and light winds are anticipated over the KALS,
KCOS and KPUB TAF sites during the next 24 hours.




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